November 2000

With two $40 million weekends under his belt for his last two at bats, one would think that Adam Sandler's latest comedy Little Nicky would be a sure thing to top the charts with a massive opening. After all, as in The Waterboy, he plays a lovable loser with a speech impediment replete with Rob Schneider cheering on "You can do it!" This time, he even has special effects thanks to a $70 million production budget, making this his costliest picture yet. Absent from the screen for over a year though, the iron seems to have cooled a bit. After all, his fan base of kids and teenagers tends to have a short attention span.

The ad campaign hasn't helped. For one thing, it focuses too much on what normally is an obligatory, secondary aspect of Sandler's pictures, the love story. This alienates his predominantly male core following. What's more, the gags just aren't as punchy as they should be. The funniest of which involve the talking bulldog, but in the commercials' closer of it covering up its shouting "yes, yes" with a "woof, woof" just falls flat due to poor editing and other things. The core following also likely hasn't heard of the band Chicago, lessening the impact on them of the Satanic message in one of their records.

Sandler himself doesn't have anything resoundingly funny to do, such as his squealing tackles in The Waterboy or his outrageous parenting in Big Daddy. The special effects also drown him out, all but his annoying vocal affectation that is. Compounding problems, his supporting actors sound similar, making the whole affair a cacophony of nasal voices.

The buzz just hasn't reached a high enough frenzy for Little Nicky to have an uber-blockbuster opening. People just thing it looks stupid. Now, that's not unusual for Sandler, but this time, even the target audience concurs. Nonetheless, Nicky could eke out a slim victory over Charlie's Angels with an opening in the mid-to-high twenties as it spreads the blood of the innocent over 2,901 theaters

With surprisingly the most ubiquitous ad campaign of the bunch, Men of Honor dives into the murky depths of 2,090 multiplexes. In it, "Robert DeNiro and Cuba Gooding, Jr. go beyond the limits," playing "a man who won't give up and a man who won't back down" respectively. DeNiro barks "My name is master chief Billy Sunday, and I am God." Charlize Theron pops up with "You're the one they talk about," in her second, seemingly non sequitor attempt at a Southern accent after The Legend of Bagger Vance.

Demonstrating an annoying editing habit, DeNiro asks "What makes you try so hard?" while apparently in the bowels of some boat. Then, a cut to Gooding answering, "Because they said I couldn't have it," from what appears to be a library in daylight.

At the commercials' close, DeNiro and Gooding march down a hall as the triumphant blare of brass instruments accompany them. Like Kraft Macaroni, it's the cheesiest. But it tends to work, pulling just the right strings for this Veteran's Day weekend. The obscuring of the diving, racial and period piece aspects (though these are explicitly addressed in the trailer) makes it come off as generic brand military drama, which it undoubtedly is. This vagueness, though, allows the unwitting moviegoer to mistake it for something like U-571.

The target audience hasn't been explicitly served since Remember the Titans. Keep in mind also that Rules of Engagement opened to $15 million last spring, and that was even more pedestrian looking. In fact, this genre tends to be good for openings in the low-to-mid teens, and Men of Honor appears to be no different, which would put it in third place.

Did you know red was "the color of fear?" That's the slogan for Red Planet, and it's certainly the case in Hollywood, where red equals bomb. The picture's distributor Warner Bros. seems to have made peace with this fear though, as they've mounted a limited ad campaign to possibly cut their inevitable losses on it. What few spots they've ran simply feature a goofy looking robot thing attacking Val Kilmer and crew.

The trailer doesn't make up for this as it has a decidedly anti-climactic feel to it, lacking any indelible money shots or suspense sequences. Most of it is the set-up, including hokey narration about how a colonization of Mars is mankind's last hope. No, it's not. It's just an excuse to use Mars as an exotic location for crash landings and people getting killed. This whole lack of inspiration and distinction should prove to hurt Red Planet, especially in such a crowded marketplace.

Originally scheduled for a summer release, Warner Bros. pushed it back, reportedly to put some distance between it and Mission to Mars. That picture opened last March to $22.9 million, but rapidly sputtered out at $60.9 million total. Its ad campaign was aggressive though and featured more eye candy. The general rule is that when two similar pictures open in close proximity to each other, the latter suffers, at least on opening weekend. For instance, in 1997, Dante's Peak exploded with $18.7 million out the gate, while Volcano mustered $14.6 million a few months later. In 1998, Deep Impact left a more sizable crater on its opening than Armageddon, $41.2 vs. $36.1 million respectively, though it ended up with about $60 million less total.

Earlier this year, Pitch Black fell under the same sci-fi horror genre. With considerably lower expenditures and expectations, it opened to a solid $11.6 million. A sci-fi horror of a different kind, Battlefield Earth opened to $11.5 million on a weekend where it was the only major new release. Other recent gussied up B-movies include Species 2, Virus and Supernova, each of which opened to $5-7 million.

Crash landing onto 2,703 theaters, the Red Planet mission could barely get off the ground with around $10 million, discovering the other color of studio accounting, black, to be ever so elusive.

Charlie's Angels set a non-summer, non-holiday opening weekend record with its $40.1 million haul from 3,037 theaters. It now has the momentum, stemming from positive word-of-mouth and from trumping the other big holiday pictures by coming out before the holiday period technically starts. A reasonable 35% drop would put in the mid-twenty million range.

Meet the Parents had yet another amazing hold last weekend, down just 13% to $12.6 million and $116.5 million total. Given new competition in comedy from Little Nicky and for adults from Men of Honor and the fatigue that even the leggiest pictures tend to suffer, a 25% drop to around $9 million seems to be in store. Still, that could be enough to best Red Planet.

The Legend of Bagger Vance sliced in its opening swing with $11.5 million from 2,061 venues. That's quite a ways away from the green, but well into the red given the $70 million production budget, the star power and DreamWorks' marketing muscle. And Will Smith was still smarting from last year's Wild Wild West debacle and sluggish sales for his latest album. Without any momentum and ever mounting new choices, Vance could fall outside the top five this weekend to the $7-8 million range.

Over the same frame last year, the Pokemon fad was at its zenith as The First Movie opened to $31 million from 3,043 theaters, but it quickly fizzled out at $85.7 million total. The Bone Collector dipped 28% to $12 million and second place. Despite the whining of Christian fundies, Dogma didn't burn in hell with a solid $8.7 million from 1,269 venues, ultimately ascending to a $30.7 million total. The Messenger was burnt at the stake though with just $6.4 million from 2,147 battlefields, recanting at $14.3 million total. Meanwhile, audiences went to anywhere but Anywhere But Here as the chick flick took fifth with $5.6 million from 1,672 locales en route to $18.7 million.

Rumors of catfights among the cast, extended delays and shooting without a script had pegged Charlie's Angels as a troubled production, that Sony had yet another flop on its hands. Its $92 million price tag certainly suggests that some of it was true, considering there are no superstars in it to balloon the budget. Now that the finished project has arrived, the tide has changed. Surprisingly, it's been getting mixed reviews, as opposed to the expected god awful ones. Sony's ad campaign has been so aggressive, so high-octane that instead of the expected good opening followed by severe drop-offs, blockbuster is even being bandied about. And it's certainly justified. Featuring spectacular wire-work acrobatics, it comes off as The Matrix or Mission: Impossible 2 but with hot chicks doing the chop-socky instead. Not to mention, it's the first major action flick since the early summer.

The star power from Cameron Diaz, Drew Barrymore, Lucy Liu and Bill Murray is high wattage, considering that this is the kind of picture that people want to see them in. Diaz gets top billing and paycheck ($12 million). Strange, considering that Drew Barrymore, who also produced, is arguably the bigger draw. Diaz has never carried a picture on her own, with her only hit in which she had a leading role being There's Something About Mary, accompanied by several bombs. Barrymore, on the other hand, has a higher average gross and recently headlined two hits, Ever After and Never Been Kissed.

Only carrying over the voice of Charlie from the TV show should prove to be a wise move, as the youths appear to be chomping at the bit to see it. A faithful adaptation would have come off as too stodgy and cheesy to them. This amalgam of current pop culture phenomena like the aforementioned Matrix and Austin Powers is right up their alley with the added benefit of a brand name. Guys will go for the spectacle, both of wild stunts and scantily clad women. Girls for, well, the girl power. Even if any of it can be deemed sexist, they won't care as the success of such flicks as Coyote Ugly and She's All That have proven. What's more, this weekend historically has not been alien to massive openings. In 1998, for instance, The Waterboy tackled $39.4 million.

Sashaying onto 3,037 theaters, the Angels could find a smashing $35 million plus opening to be a mission quite possible.

The ad campaign for The Legend of Bagger Vance simply rests on pedigree alone rather than truly selling the picture. It throws out the names, some sepia-toned shots, generic music for this kind of thing, cynically expecting people to show up because the picture's so important, so inspirational and oh so deep. However, it doesn't give a clear sense of what it's about. One gleams that it's a period piece involving golf, finding one's swing, Will Smith taking his turn at the now cliche saintly black sage role, and Charlize Theron attempting a Southern accent. This lack of clarity and the off-putting vibe that Smith and Matt Damon are too young for their parts could translate into box office well below what the star power suggests.

Compounding problems could be the anti-climactic timing. November, particularly the first half, tends to be pure popcorn for moviegoers, not the time to bite into the Oscar bait. Earlier in the Fall like American Beauty or December like The Green Mile seem to be more conducive to this sort of thing. Further hampering potential are the decidedly mixed reviews, something that the older-skewing audience pays more attention to than other demos.

Robert Redford's last picture The Horse Whisperer got out of the gate with $13.7 million from 2,039 stables back in 1998, galloping away with $75.4 million total. Its performance was buoyed by being based on a blockbuster book and by starring Redford in a trademark Redford role. Bagger Vance lacks such things, even targeting an audience incongruous with its headlining star Smith. Though it is similar, not just in look and feel, but thematically as well. Just trade the troubled horse rider for the troubled golfer. The last two times that Redford directed but not starred were 1994's Quiz Show and 1992's A River Runs Through It, each performing modestly with $24.8 million and $43.4 million respectively.

Putting on 2,061 greens under the shadow of Charlie's Angels, Bagger Vance could hit into the rough with an opening in the low teens.

Meet the Parents had an astonishingly strong hold last weekend, losing a mere 6% to $15 million and crossing the century mark to boot. It stunned everyone by retaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. With the Angels afoot, it's reign is certain to end, though it still could surprise many by edging out Bagger Vance for second. After all, even a drop of 25% would put it in the $11 million range.

Proving that it was just a fad struck by extreme backlash shortly after it began, the Blair Witch sequel opened to $13.2 million from 3,317 theaters, the fifth widest release of all time. By comparison, the original's first weekend of wide release garnered $29.2 million from just 1,101. Though most industry pundits thought $20 million plus was in store, perhaps no one was more disappointed than distributor Artisan, which had publicly stated its $30 million expectation. Needless to say, these were insane estimates, especially given how generic the picture looked. With Halloween over, the pattern that the genre and sequels generally follow and poor word-of-mouth, a drop of over 50% this weekend seems likely or around $5 million. That would put it on course to top out at less than $30 million. Though production costs were a reported $10-15 million, an aggressive prints and advertising campaign likely added another $25 million to that total. Its United Kingdom debut was even more mediocre, suggesting that, like the original, it will make less overseas than it does here. All told, the picture won't likely be hitting black for some time.

The Fall's other leggy blockbuster Remember the Titans held its ground again last weekend, giving up just 19%. It put up another $8 million on the board for $87.8 million total. Even if it drops 30% this weekend, it could likely edge out Blair Witch 2 for fourth.

Meanwhile, John Travolta had his second megaton bomb in a row with Lucky Numbers after last summer's Battlefield Earth. The reunion with his hack Michael director Nora Ephron mustered a measly $4.5 million from 2,497 venues. With a likely plummet of over 50% in store this weekend, the $65 million production could become his lowest grossing starring role in five years with even less than Mad City's $10.6 million total (all the more pronounced by the rise in ticket prices since then). Hopefully, Hollywood will come to its senses and stop paying the portly Scientologist $20 million. After all, his last two pictures have performed worse than Perfect, Two of a Kind and the other duds that killed his career in the mid-80's. His boom time was amidst the comeback buzz from 1994-97, and even then only Face/Off and Pulp Fiction were true worldwide blockbusters. Contrary to what recent lists say, the numbers just don't support a top tier star power rating for him. To put it in perspective, if he's worth $20 million per picture, then his fellow Scientologist Tom Cruise is worth $50 million.

Over the same frame last year, The Bone Collector rattled $16.9 million worth of ticket buyers for the top spot, amassing $66.5 million by the end of its run. House on Haunted Hill spooked up 52% less business than its record Halloween opening, $7.7 million for second place en route to $40.8 million. The Bachelor remained so with only $7.5 million from 2,522 theaters, ultimately settling for $21.8 million. The Insider lost its case against Big Tobacco with $6.7 million from 1,809 venues, though with the aid of Oscar nods it played longer than 60 minutes, uncovering $29.1 million total.