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'Deadpool 2' Takes Aim at Record R-Rated Opening Weekend

by Brad Brevet
 

 
May 17, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's release of Deadpool 2 brought in an estimated $53.3 million on Friday, topping It's $50.4 million opening day to become the largest opening day for an R-rated film ever. Early estimates are anticipating a $133+ million opening for the film, which would make for a record opening for an R-rated film. Deadpool 2 received an "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

Paramount's Book Club brought in an estimated $4.7 million on Friday and is currently expected to bring in $13-14 million for the three-day. The film is likely to also enjoy a better-than-normal run for a film of this size given its target demographic and an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

Global Road's Show Dogs debuted with an estimated $1.4 million from 3,212 locations and is looking at a three-day debut shy of $6 million. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's Deadpool 2 exploded onto screens last night, bringing in an impressive $18.6 million in Thursday night previews from 3,785 locations beginning at 7PM. This is a record preview gross for an R-rated feature, destroying the $13.5 million brought in by It last year, and nearly $6 million more than the first film brought in prior to its $132.4 million debut. In fact, the performance is just $100k behind preview grosses for Marvel's The Avengers and $100k ahead of the $18.5 million in previews for Jurassic World, both of which debuted with over $200 million.

Paramount's Book Club brought in $625k from Thursday previews in 2,781 locations. This is just ahead of the $600k Going in Style brought in from Thursday previews prior to an $11.9 million opening and just behind the $650k for The Intern, which opened with $17.7 million.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: While Avengers: Infinity War will continue its impressive box office run this weekend, perhaps topping $600 million domestically, it will be relinquishing its spot at the top of the domestic charts to yet another Marvel comic book adaptation. Fox's Deadpool 2 is debuting in a record number of theaters for an R-rated release, not to mention serving as the studio's widest release ever, and hopes to top the record R-rated debut set by its predecessor two years ago. Also opening this weekend is Paramount's Book Club, looking to offer older audience members an alternative, while Global Road debuts an alternative of its own in the talking dog family feature Show Dogs.

With Deadpool 2 expected to top this weekend's box office, it will be the ninth weekend out of the twenty so far this year that a Marvel comic adaptation has served as the #1 film at the weekend box office. Debuting in 4,349 locations, the film is the widest release ever for an R-rated film (topping It's 4,103 theaters) and the widest release ever for 20th Century Fox, topping the 4,253 theaters How to Train Your Dragon 2 debuted in in June 2014. The size of the film's footprint says a lot about the audience and exhibitor appetite for the foul-mouthed antihero as it takes aim at topping the first film's record-setting $132.4 million opening for an R-rated film.

Industry expectations for the film lean toward an opening anywhere from $130-150 million and those numbers are supported when looking at IMDb page view comparisons leading up to release. Most importantly, Deadpool 2 is neck-and-neck with the first film, which isn't typically the case for a sequel as follow-ups tend to pace behind their predecessors. Additionally, online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports the sequel is outpacing the original film in advanced ticket sales, all of which has us leaning toward a record breaking opening for an R-rated film with a $138 million opening with room to go much higher.

After three weeks on top of the domestic box office and already pulling in over $1.686 billion worldwide, becoming the fourth largest global release of all-time, Avengers: Infinity War will fall to second place on the domestic charts this weekend. Right now we're anticipating a drop right around 53%, pulling in around $29 million for the three-day, finishing the weekend with a domestic cume just shy of $600 million domestically after 24 days in release.

Paramount is looking at a third place debut for Book Club, which they acquired North America, France and UK rights for $10 million at AFM last November. Starring Jane Fonda, Mary Steenburgen, Diane Keaton and Candice Bergen, the studio is being conservative with its expectations, anticipating an opening right at $9 million, below our anticipated $10-14 million range for the weekend.

Our expectations are supported by IMDb page view comparisons, which show Book Club outperforming films such as The Big Wedding, The Single Moms Club, Going in Style and Love the Coopers over the two weeks leading up to release while pacing behind Nancy Meyers's The Intern. All things considered, our data is leaning heavily toward an opening closer to $12 million, give or take a million or so on either side of that number.

Melissa McCarthy is coming off her worst debut as a film's lead in Life of the Party, which only managed to narrowly top Breaking In last weekend once actuals were counted. This weekend we're expecting it to dip 47% for a three-day right around $9.5 million and a fourth place finish.

Rounding out the top five is the aforementioned Breaking In, which came in $1.1 million ahead of estimates last weekend and should dip around 58% or so for a $7.4 million weekend, pushing the film's domestic cume over $30 million after ten days in release.

Just outside the top five we find the weekend's final new wide release in Global Road's Show Dogs. The talking dog feature is the last film to come from the old regime, prior to the Open Road and IM Global merger, and reports have the film tracking to debut in the high single million digits. To look at IMDb page view data we are seeing this one pacing almost exactly like Open Road's The Nut Job 2 last August, which opened in a massive 4,003 theaters with a dismal $8.3 million. While there haven't been many family options in theaters as of late, we're still struggling to see Show Dogs breaking out and currently expecting the film to debut with anywhere from $6-8 million with our forecast, at this time, coming in on the lower end of those expectations.

Magnolia is expanding the release of their documentary RBG into 375 locations (+196) this weekend. The film squeaked into the top ten last weekend and could do the same this weekend. Right now we're forecasting it will be neck-and-neck with I Feel Pretty for that final spot, both finishing right around $1.5 million for the three-day.

Also be on the lookout for Focus's documentary Pope Francis - A Man of His Word, which is opening in 346 locations and should manage around $1-1.2 million this weekend, enough to threaten for a spot in the top 15.

In limited release, A24 is releasing the thriller First Reformed into four theaters; Bleecker will debut On Chesil Beach in four locations; and IFC will release the documentary That Summer into one theater.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Deadpool 2 (4,349 theaters) - $138.0 M
  • Avengers: Infinity War (4,002 theaters) - $29.2 M
  • Book Club (2,781 theaters) - $12.0 M
  • Life of the Party (3,656 theaters) - $9.5 M
  • Breaking In (2,537 theaters) - $7.4 M
  • Show Dogs (3,145 theaters) - $6.3 M
  • Overboard (1,820 theaters) - $5.8 M
  • A Quiet Place (2,327 theaters) - $4.0 M
  • Rampage (1,466 theaters) - $1.6 M
  • RBG (375 theaters) - $1.5 M

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