News

'Infinity War' Set to Threepeat While 'Life of the Party' & 'Breaking In' Battle for Runner-Up

by Brad Brevet
 

 
May 10, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Avengers: Infinity War is on its way to a third straight weekend at #1 with an estimated $15.9 million on Friday, heading toward a $60+ million weekend, putting the film just shy of $550 million by end of day Sunday.

Warner Bros. and New Line's Life of the Party is leading the weekend's new releases, pulling in an estimated $4.9 million on Friday, looking at an $18+ million debut. The film earned a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

Universal's Breaking In brought in an estimated $4.5 million on Friday, looking at a three-day right around $15 million. It also received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Warner Bros. and New Line's Life of the Party brought in $700,000 from Thursday previews, which began at 7PM in ~2,900 locations. This result is a bit behind The Boss's $985k in preview grosses, yet $50k ahead of Snatched's $650k last year.

Universal reports Breaking In grossed $615,000 in late night shows in 2,150 theaters. This is a bit behind the $1 million Tyler Perry's Acrimony brought in from previews ahead of its $17.1 million debut.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: This Mother's Day will see Avengers: Infinity War push toward $550 million domestically while a pair of new releases battle it out for second place. Warner Bros. and New Line's Life of the Party and Universal's Breaking In are the new kids on the block this weekend, both looking to take advantage of the Sunday holiday, and while Life of the Party is expected to take the runner-up position, once Sunday rolls around it could be a closer race than anticipated.

At the top of the box office for a third weekend in a row will be Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War, which we're expecting to drop right around 46% for a $62 million three-day, pushing the film's domestic cume right up against the $550 million mark come Sunday evening, moving into the all-time domestic top ten. As impressive as that may be, most eyes will be focused on the film's release in its final major market, China, where it is expected to deliver huge numbers. For comparison, using current exchange rates, Captain America: Civil War debuted with $98 million in China, Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with $84 million and Black Panther debuted with $66 million. Don't be surprised to see Infinity War demolish those numbers.

As of yesterday, Infinity War has grossed $771.9 million internationally and over $1.25 billion worldwide, topping The Fate of the Furious ($1.236b) to become the thirteenth largest global release of all-time.

Second place is looking as if it could be a tight race between the weekend's two new wide releases, Life of the Party and Breaking In. Right now we're expecting both to deliver in the $17-21 million range and it could simply come down to theater count to determine the winner. At this time, we're staying safe and forecasting Melissa McCarthy's Life of the Party will edge out the Universal thriller, based in large part on the 1,100+ theater differential.

Debuting in 3,656 locations, the WB and New Line are anticipating Life of the Party will debut around $17-22 million this weekend, which is pretty much in line with what we're seeing based on comparable titles. The two primary films we've used as comps for are McCarthy's 2016 feature The Boss, which opened with $23.5 million in early April 2016 and Amy Schumer's Snatched, which opened with $19.5 million over Mother's Day weekend last year. Based on IMDb page view data Life of the Party is pacing just a bit behind both films over the two weeks leading up to release giving us a range of $18-21 million, but the film's PG-13 rating could help bring in a few more heads, helping push the film's gross just a bit higher. For our forecast, however, we're sticking right around $21 million and whether that's enough to top Breaking In should be interesting to watch.

Breaking In stars Gabrielle Union who produced the pic alongside Will Packer, whose films continue to deliver at the box office. In fact, within the thriller genre Packer's Obsessed debuted with $28.6 million back in 2009 and in 2014 No Good Deed opened with $24.2 million. Using No Good Deed as well as films such as When the Bough Breaks ($14.2m opening) and the recent release of Tyler Perry's Acrimony ($17.1m opening) as comp titles, Breaking In is just a shade behind No Good Deed based on IMDb page view data over the two weeks ahead of release while vastly outperforming the latter two pictures.

With the film debuting in 2,537 locations, Breaking In will have to generate far more per theater to hang with Life of the Party, and Universal is anticipating a debut in the mid-teens. That said, based on our analysis, Mojo anticipates an opening anywhere from $17-20 million, and we're forecasting a three-day right at $18 million, though we wouldn't be surprised to see it go even higher, possibly even challenging Life of the Party for a second place finish.

In fourth place look for MGM and Lionsgate's Overboard to dip around 39% or so as it adds nearly 400 locations, looking at a $9 million second weekend and a domestic cume pushing toward $30 million. A Quiet Place should round out the top five with $4.8 million as its domestic cume nears $170 million.

In limited release Roadside will debut Beast in four theaters; Magnolia will release Higher Power; Neon will release Revenge; and Sony Classics will release The Seagull into six theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Avengers: Infinity War (4,474 theaters) - $62.0 M
  • Life of the Party (3,656 theaters) - $21.0 M
  • Breaking In (2,537 theaters) - $18.0 M
  • Overboard (2,006 theaters) - $9.0 M
  • A Quiet Place (3,144 theaters) - $4.8 M
  • I Feel Pretty (2,858 theaters) - $2.9 M
  • Rampage (2,548 theaters) - $2.5 M
  • Black Panther (1,370 theaters) - $2.1 M
  • Tully (1,353 theaters) - $1.8 M
  • Blockers (1,106 theaters) - $0.9 M

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