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'Avengers: Infinity War' Poised for Second Weekend Domination as 'Overboard',' Tully' & 'Bad Samaritan' Debut

by Brad Brevet
 

 
May 3, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: As expected, Avengers: Infinity War is demolishing the competition yet again, bringing in an estimated $31.4 million on Friday, looking at a $120+ million three-day, which will push the film's domestic cume over $450 million after just ten days in release.

Lionsgate and MGM's release of Pantelion's Overboard brought in an estimated $4.8 million on Friday and is currently expected to bring in $14+ million for the weekend.

Focus Features's release of Jason Reitman's Tully brought in an estimated $1.16 million on Friday and is heading toward a $3.7 million debut while Electric Entertainment's Bad Samaritan brought in $651k on Friday and is looking at a $1.8 million debut.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: MGM and Lionsgate's Pantelion Films' release of Overboard took in an estimated $675,000 last night from preview screenings beginning at 7PM in approximately 1,400 theaters. This tops the $450k How to be a Latin Lover brought in from previews prior to its $12.2 million opening.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War will dominate yet again this weekend, and while it's unlikely it will have much of a shot at the largest second weekend ever, a shot at the second largest is well within reach as it pushes toward $450 million domestic and over $1 billion worldwide. In terms of new releases, there isn't anything hitting theaters that should cause the superhero film to lose audience, though look for Pantelion's Overboard remake to score a solid debut while Tully and Bad Samaritan should deliver openings in the low-to-mid single digits.

Following Infinity War's $257.7 million debut, looking at the five previous $200+ million openers, the second weekend drops range from 39.8% for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to 67.5% for Star Wars: The Last Jedi. In between, Black Panther dipped 44.7%, Jurassic World dropped 49% and The Avengers fell 50.3% in their sophomore sessions. To compare all six films side-by-side is difficult given the two Star Wars films played during the holiday season and Black Panther played over President's Day weekend. As such, Avengers and Jurassic World probably best mirror Infinity War's release path, which could be interpreted to say a second weekend drop around 50% should be expected this weekend.

However, the sheer size of Infinity War's debut along with the lack of any real competition has to be taken into account, supporting both positives and negatives on either side of that 50% drop figure. To look at IMDb page view data following release, Infinity War trails only Force Awakens. This is the same scenario we saw prior to release and Infinity War smashed Force Awakens's previous opening weekend record. Currently, Black Panther holds the second largest sophomore frame with an impressive $111.7 million, ahead of Jurassic World's $106.5 million second weekend. All things considered, right now we're anticipating a drop right around 55% or so, and a $116 million three-day performance, enough to be the second largest second weekend ever and would put the film's domestic total over $450 million after just ten days in release.

Internationally, Infinity War has brought in $534.7 million so far for a global cume over $850 million after just eight days of release. The film opens in Russia today and come the end of the weekend Infinity War should be looking at a worldwide cume over $1 billion with a release in China set for next Friday, May 11.

In second place this weekend look for Lionsgate's release of Pantelion's Overboard remake starring Anna Faris and Latin star Eugenio Derbez whose films such as How to be a Latin Lover and Instructions Not Included have performed very well in North America. This weekend Overboard will debut in 1,623 locations and Lionsgate is anticipating an opening in the $10-13 million range, which is an estimate on the lower end of our expectations.

Looking at IMDb page view comparisons, Overboard is vastly outperforming films such as Bridget Jones's Baby ($8.57m opening), The Big Wedding ($7.59m opening), Baggage Claim ($9m opening) as well as Latin Lover, which opened with $12.25 million last April from just 1,118 locations. Overall, we're currently expecting a debut anywhere from $15-16 million this weekend with upside potential, the only thing that might hurt the film's chances would be the smaller theater count.

Paramount's A Quiet Place should land a third place finish as we're looking for the film to drop right around 39% this weekend for a $6.75 million three-day, pushing the film's domestic cume just shy of $160 million.

Amy Schumer's I Feel Pretty is looking at a fourth place finish, dropping around 47% for a $4.3 million three-day and a domestic cume right around $37 million.

Rounding out the top five we find Jason Reitman's latest film Tully. From a script by Diablo Cody (Juno, Young Adult) and starring Charlize Theron, the film is opening in 1,353 locations with industry expectations right around $2-4 million for the weekend, which is within the vicinity of what we've been seeing with our comps. Though, if the film was getting a wider release and a larger marketing push, we may have actually been expecting double that figure as it is performing just behind the likes of last September's release of Home Again when looking at IMDb page view data over the 90 days leading up to release, which opened with $8.5 million. However, with just 1,353 theaters a debut closer to $4 million or perhaps just a bit higher seems a safe bet at this point.

Outside the top five and looking at a seventh place finish we have Disney and Marvel's Black Panther, anticipating a 31% drop after a strong hold last weekend and a $3.3 million twelfth weekend. Should that forecast hold, the film will be looking to end the weekend with a domestic cume nearing a massive $694 million.

Finally we come to Electric Entertainment's release of Bad Samaritan starring David Tennant and debuting in 2,007 locations. This is the first wide release for Electric Entertainment, who fully financed the pic and covered the majority of the P&A with Vertical Entertainment serving as it's booking agent. This has been an interesting title to track given the green nature of Electric Entertainment as a distributor of wide releases, but the film's performance on IMDb mirrors releases such as BH Tilt's Incarnate ($2.5m opening) and The Darkness ($4.95m opening) over the two weeks leading up to release, as well as EuropaCorp's Shut In ($3.6m opening). Bad Samaritan finds itself hovering a little ahead of Incarnate in terms of pacing while behind both Darkness and Shut In, which suggests a performance right around $2-3 million and given the rather wide release it just might be able to hit those numbers.

In limited release this weekend, Sony will debut 102 Not Out in (naturally) 102 locations and Music Box is releasing The Guardians.

Lastly, Magnolia will debut the Ruth Bader Ginsberg documentary RBG in 34 theaters and will be holding preview screenings this evening, which will be rolled into the weekend's opening gross, including buyouts from earlier in the week. Magnolia reports they are seeing sellouts and above-average pre-sales all over the country and will be adding 100+ runs next weekend and will be on 300 screens by May 18.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Avengers: Infinity War (4,474 theaters) - $116.0 M
  • Overboard (1,623 theaters) - $15.2 M
  • A Quiet Place (3,413 theaters) - $6.8 M
  • I Feel Pretty (3,232 theaters) - $4.3 M
  • Tully (1,353 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • Rampage (3,151 theaters) - $4.0 M
  • Black Panther (1,641 theaters) - $3.3 M
  • Bad Samaritan (2,007 theaters) - $2.0 M
  • Super Troopers 2 (2,118 theaters) - $1.8 M

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