News

'Rampage' Prepares to Fight Off 'Quiet Place' & 'Truth or Dare' For Weekend #1

by Brad Brevet
 

 
April 12, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Warner Bros. and New Line's Rampage got things started with an estimated $11.5 million on Friday with current estimates anticipating a debut anywhere from $31-32 million for the three-day, which is likely to find the film debuting in second place. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore.

Meanwhile, Rampage has thus far brought in an estimated $36.7 million internationally after debuting overseas on Thursday. Leading the way is China with an estimated $15.6 million on Friday, including sneak previews, with expectations for a $21.2 million on Saturday.

Looking to repeat at #1 is Paramount's thriller A Quiet Place, which brought in an estimated $10.5 million on Friday and is expected to finish around $33-35 million for the three-day, pushing the film's domestic cume over $100 million after just ten days in release.

Universal's release of Blumhouse's Truth or Dare brought in an estimated $8.2 million, looking at a solid debut anywhere from $19-20 million for the three-day. The film received a "B-" CinemaScore.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Warner Bros. and New Line's Rampage delivered $2.4 million from Thursday evening showings beginning at 7PM in 3,100+ locations. The performance is $700k behind San Andreas prior to its $54.5 million debut and just ahead of the $2.1 million brought in by Hercules before it went on to open with $29.8 million. It's also $150k behind The Legend of Tarzan prior to its $38.5 million opening as well as $260k behind Tom Cruise's The Mummy, which went on to debut with $31.6 million last year.

Universal's release of the Blumhouse Productions thriller Truth or Dare grossed $750,000 in late night shows at 2,400 locations. That's $250k behind the $1 million brought in by Happy Death Day before its $26 million debut, but ahead of the $656k in preview grosses for Unfriended, which opened with $15.8 million in April 2015.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: After leading Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which just became the studio's highest grossing domestic release of all-time, Dwayne Johnson arrives with his latest offering, starring in this weekend's release of Warner Bros. and New Line's Rampage. At the same time Blumhouse will debut its latest micro-budgeted thriller Truth or Dare, which will have its hands full competing for audience attention with last weekend's box office champ A Quiet Place, which looks to follow up its stellar debut last weekend with a strong sophomore effort.

Debuting in over 4,100 theaters, Rampage is looking to stomp the weekend box office, though expectations aren't quite as high as one might think for a Dwayne Johnson-led effort, especially debuting in this many theaters. Tracking heading into the weekend is expecting a $35-40 million debut, but using several comps we're having a hard time seeing it reach much higher than $35 million.

Using films such as The Mummy, Hercules, The Legend of Tarzan, San Andreas and G.I. Joe: Retaliation shows Rampage pacing behind all five over the two weeks leading up to release based on IMDb page view data, pushing our anticipated weekend range closer to $30-35 million. While we wouldn't be surprised to see it reach as high as $40 million, right now our expectation is closer to $34 million, which means with a reported $120 million production budget and its proximity to the release of Avengers: Infinity War, Rampage is going to be looking for big help from its overseas markets. That being said, the film will debut in 61 international territories this weekend, virtually day-and-date everywhere with the exception of France, Germany and Japan, all of which open in May.

Should Rampage finish on the lower end of our anticipated range, last weekend's champ, the horror/thriller A Quiet Place, just might have a shot at a second weekend at #1 as we're anticipating a 35-40% drop for a second weekend around $30-32.5 million. The film will be taking advantage of stellar reviews, solid word of mouth and the Friday the 13th holiday, heading toward a domestic cume anywhere from $97-100 million after ten days in release.

Blumhouse's Truth or Dare is looking at a third place finish with the studio anticipating a debut in the low-to-mid teens from 3,029 theaters. The film obviously faces competition from A Quiet Place, but should also make good use of the Friday the 13th release, the question is whether it will settle in closer to $15-16 million or will it be able to withstand the competition and debut closer to $20 million. Looking at IMDb page view data leading up to release is a bit murky, showing Truth or Dare performing well alongside Happy Death Day ($26m opening) while pacing behind Unfriended ($15.8m opening) and Ouija ($19.8m opening). Overall, we're anticipating a debut anywhere from $15-17 million, though we wouldn't be shocked if it managed to pop a bit higher.

WB's Ready Player One should finish in fourth right around $14 million, pushing its cume north of $117 million after 18 days in release.

Rounding out the top five we have Universal's R-rated comedy Blockers, which brought in a healthy $20.5 million last weekend in conjunction with strong reviews and a "B" CinemaScore. This weekend the film should drop around 42% or so for a $12 million second weekend for a domestic cume around $38 million.

Elsewhere in the top ten, Fox Searchlight will expand the release of Wes Anderson's Isle of Dogs nationwide into 1,939 theaters (+1,385) to begin its fourth week in release. Industry expectations are for a performance just shy of $5 million, and we're right in that range for a cume north of $18 million by the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere, Fun Academy is releasing the animated feature Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero into nearly 1,700 theaters and is expected to pull in anywhere from $1-3 million this weekend.

Additionally, after releasing Beirut into 710 theaters on Wednesday, Bleecker will add a few more on Friday and we're expected anywhere from $1-1.5 million for the three-day.

In limited release look for Mercury from Prime Media in 87 locations and Sony Classics will release The Rider into three theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Rampage (4,101 theaters) - $34.0 M
  • A Quiet Place (3,589 theaters) - $30.0 M
  • Truth or Dare (3,029 theaters) - $16.5 M
  • Ready Player One (3,661 theaters) - $14.2 M
  • Blockers (3,418 theaters) - $12.0 M
  • Black Panther (2,180 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • I Can Only Imagine (2,563 theaters) - $5.1 M
  • Isle Of Dogs (1,939 theaters) - $5.0 M
  • Sherlock Gnomes (2,116 theaters) - $3.7 M
  • Tyler Perry's Acrimony (1,332 theaters) - $3.6 M

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LATEST UPDATES
WEEKEND: Weekend Actuals, 'A Quiet Place' #1
DAILY: Friday, 'Super Troopers 2' #1
WEEKLY: 'Rampage' Tops the Week with $45.6m
DAILY: Thursday 4/19 (43 tracked)
DAILY: Wednesday, 4/18 (37 tracked)
DAILY: Tuesday, 4/17 (34 tracked)
New MPAA Ratings Added
DAILY: Monday, 4/16 (35 tracked)
> MORE UPDATES