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'Winchester' is the Lone New Wide Release this Super Bowl Weekend

by Brad Brevet
 

 
February 1, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Lionsgate and CBS Films's Winchester is performing mostly as expected, bringing in an estimated $3.6 million on Friday, heading toward a third place finish with around $8.5 million. Opening day audiences gave the film a "B-" CinemaScore.

At #1 is Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle with an estimated $2.87 million on Friday, looking at a weekend that could reach $11 million followed by Maze Runner: The Death Cure, which brought in an estimated $3 million on Friday, headed toward a three-day just shy of $10 million.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Winchester kicked things off last night bringing in $615,000 from Thursday night previews beginning at 7PM. Using the comps in our weekend preview below, The Lazarus Effect brought in $344k from Thursday previews before its $10.2 million debut and You're Next delivered $490k from Thursday previews before a $7 million opening. Additionally, Blair Witch grossed $765k from Thursday previews before a $9.6 million debut while Wish Upon delivered $376k in preview grosses before a $5.4 million opening.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Only one new wide release hits theaters this Super Bowl weekend in the form of Lionsgate and CBS's supernatural thriller Winchester, which is looking for a debut in the high, single-digit millions. Otherwise, a selection of Oscar nominees continue to add locations while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle looks to make a return to #1 after a one week hiatus as runner-up. Overall, expect this to be the softest weekend of the year so far with the top twelve grossing around $75 million combined, just a bit behind the $80.7 million last year.

After relinquishing the #1 spot at the weekend box office to Maze Runner: The Death Cure last weekend, Jumanji is looking to return to the top of the weekend charts for one last time before a crop of new releases arrive next weekend. The family feature held on strong last weekend, dropping just 17%, and this weekend a drop around 25-26% seems manageable for a weekend around $12 million. This would push the film's domestic cume over $350 million, approximately $20 million shy of Spider-Man 2, which currently sits as Sony's second highest grossing domestic release of all-time at $373.5 million.

This isn't to say it will be a walk in the park for Jumanji to remain #1 as it could dip a bit harder in the face of the Super Bowl and perhaps Maze Runner: Death Cure will hold on a bit better than we're anticipating, but right now we're expecting a drop around 54% and an $11 million second weekend. By the end of the day Sunday we're looking for a domestic cume right around $40 million.

Arriving in third we have Lionsgate and CBS's Winchester, a gothic thriller from the Spierig Brothers (Jigsaw) and starring Helen Mirren. The film is opening in 2,480 theaters and tracking services have it debuting around $6-10 million, while CBS has narrowed that range to $6-8 million, drawing comparisons to films such as Devil's Due ($8.3m) and The Lazarus Effect ($10.2m). Using those comps as well as Lionsgate's 2013 horror You're Next in analyzing IMDb page view data leading up to release shows Winchester has us anticipating a debut closer to $8-10 million for the weekend.

Fox's The Greatest Showman dances its way into fourth position as it enters its seventh week in release, eying a weekend around $7-8 million and a domestic cume heading toward $140 million.

Fox should also find themselves rounding out the top five with The Post as it looks to add another $6 million or so. However, it could be a tight race with Fox Searchlight's continued expansion of leading Oscar nominee The Shape of Water as it is adding even more theaters this weekend.

Searchlight continues the expansion of Shape of Water into 2,341 locations (+487) this weekend while also adding another 269 to the release of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri making for the first time the studio has ever been in over 4,000 locations at any one time. After a strong showing last weekend we're looking for a small drop for Shape of Water, bringing in around $5.25 million looking for a domestic cume to top $45 million.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (3,352 theaters) - $12.1 M
  • Maze Runner: The Death Cure (3,793 theaters) - $11.0 M
  • Winchester (2,480 theaters) - $8.4 M
  • The Greatest Showman (2,588 theaters) - $7.5 M
  • The Post (2,462 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • The Shape of Water (2,341 theaters) - $5.3 M
  • 12 Strong (2,918 theaters) - $5.2 M
  • Hostiles (2,666 theaters) - $5.1 M
  • Den of Thieves (2,112 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • Paddington 2 (2,388 theaters) - $3.5 M

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