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'Coco' Hopes to Add to Disney's Legacy at the Thanksgiving Box Office

by Brad Brevet
 

 
November 22, 2017

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Coco has played well so far through the holidays thus far and brought in an estimated $18.6 million on Friday, pushing its domestic cume after three days to $40.7 million. At this time it's looking as if a three-day weekend around $48-50 million is in the offing for a five-day gross around $70+ million.

At the same time, WB and DC Comics' Justice League is holding on mostly as expected, pushing toward a five-day total that just might reach $60 million, but seems most likely to fall just a tad short. And in third, Lionsgate's Wonder isn't expected to reach that $40 million mark for the five-day some were thinking earlier in the week, but a strong $30+ million five-day is still expected.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

THURSDAY AM UPDATE: Disney and Pixar's Coco got off to an excellent start, delivering an estimated $13.2 million on Wednesday (including $2.3 million from Tuesday night previews) and heading toward a five-day weekend in the $70+ million range. The film received an "A+" CinemaScore, becoming the sixth Pixar film to do so along with Toy Story 2, Monsters, Inc., Finding Nemo, The Incredibles and Up.

Justice League is playing mostly as expected and will try and reach Mojo's forecast for a $60 million five-day, but does look like it might come up just a bit short after an estimated $10.45 million on Wednesday.

The movie that continues to surprise and looks as if it might try and pull off a Blind Side-esque run is Lionsgate's Wonder, which delivered an estimated $6 million on Wednesday and has some expecting a $40+ million five-day weekend!

You can check out the Wednesday estimates right here and our full weekend preview below.

WEDNESDAY AM UPDATE: Coco brought in $2.3 million from Tuesday night preview, which compares well to Moana, which brought in $2.6 million from Tuesday previews before its $82 million five-day opening and well above The Good Dinosaur's $1.3 million in previews prior to a $56 million five-day. As a result, we're bumping our forecast slightly, anticipating a three-day opening around $54 million and a five-day performance around $77 million.

Additionally, Sony's Roman J. Israel, Esq. brought in $180,000 from Tuesday night previews.

We'll continue to offer updates throughout the long weekend so stay tuned. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: One look at the Thanksgiving opening weekend records shows how important the holiday has been to Disney, which currently holds nine of the top ten three-day and five-day opening weekend records including last year's Moana, which opened with $82 million over the five-day holiday, the second largest of all-time. This weekend the studio debuts the latest Pixar feature, Coco, which has already become the largest single release in Mexico and looks to make an impact domestically this weekend.

Coco will be opening in 3,987 locations starting Wednesday, with industry estimates anticipating a five-day opening in the $55-60 million range. This would be enough to challenge the studio's The Good Dinosaur for the fifth largest five-day Thanksgiving opening ever and based on the data we're looking at we're expecting it to go even higher. IMDb page view data shows Coco surging ahead of titles such as Good Dinosaur, Sing and even Moana leading up to release. Helping Coco is a wave of solid reviews as the film currently holds a rating of 79 on Metacritic, which is just a couple notches below Moana and well ahead of the critical response for Good Dinosaur. Additionally, of the theaters opening this weekend, 268+ locations will be offering the film in Spanish while over 70% of all locations will feature the film in 3D.

To look solely at averages, an animated opening of this size for Disney brings in, on average, ~$63 million for the three-day and various data points we're looking at suggest a three-day opening anywhere from $60-70 million. Moana brought in $56.6 million over the three-day weekend last year and $82 million for the five-day and while we're hesitant to project a $70 million three-day, the increased interest is just too much to ignore, suggesting a $60 million three-day is very possible with upwards of $80 million for the five-day holiday.

Online ticket retailer Fandango.com is seeing a similar trend, reporting the film is pacing closely to Moana at the same point in the sales cycle, which leads one to wonder if it will hue closer to something like a $43 million three-day and a $60+ million five-day or break higher, perhaps delivering a $50+ million three-day and a five-day that could top $70 million. Right now, we're banking on the latter, if not higher.

This means Warner Bros. and DC Comics' Justice League is likely to fall to second place in its second weekend, dropping around 56% or so for a three-day around $42 million and a five-day right at $60 million. Should Coco play a little closer to Disney's expectations it could be a fight for first, but right now it looks as if Justice League will have a short lived time at the top of the box office.

In third we're looking for Wonder to continue on its way to an impressive run, anticipating a drop around 22% or so and a three-day gross around $21.5 million and a five-day total reaching $30 million.

Disney and Marvel's Thor: Ragnarok played close to third weekend drops from Thor: The Dark World and Doctor Strange so what's not to expect a similar performance in the film's fourth weekend where we're anticipating a dip around 21% and a three-day around $15 million and a $20+ million five-day weekend.

Rounding out the top five is Daddy's Home 2, which should play well with families over the holiday, dipping similar to Thor and bringing in around $11-12 million for the three-day and a five-day around $16-17 million.

Elsewhere in the top ten, it will be interesting to watch the performances for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird and Sony's expanded release of Denzel Washington's Roman J. Israel, Esq.

We're anticipating a close race between Lady Bird and Three Billboards in the nine and ten spots, anticipating both will snag a little over $4 million for the three-day and hover around $5.5-6 million for the five-day weekend. Roman J. Israel is expanding to 1,648 on Wednesday and will add a few more on Friday, but at this time it's looking as if it's likely to fall short of the top ten.

Also opening this week is STX's release of The Man Who Invented Christmas, which will open in 532 theaters on Wednesday and expand to 626 by Friday. We're currently expecting the film to bring in around $1.5-2 million for the weekend.

In limited release, Focus is releasing Darkest Hour into four theaters and Sony Classics will debut festival favorite Call Me By Your Name, also in four locations. Darkest Hour arrives on Wednesday while Call Me By Your Name first hits theaters on Friday.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

NOTE: Some titles are still missing a theater count as we are awaiting counts from the distributors. Forecasts may be updated once official counts are received.

THREE-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST

  • Coco (3,987 theaters) - $54.0 M
  • Justice League - $42.2 M
  • Wonder - $21.5 M
  • Thor: Ragnarok (3,281 theaters) - $15.4 M
  • Daddy's Home 2 (3,518 theaters) - $11.7 M
  • Murder on the Orient Express (3,214 theaters) - $11.0 M
  • The Star (2,837 theaters) - $7.4 M
  • A Bad Moms Christmas (2,306 theaters) - $5.1 M
  • Lady Bird (791 theaters) - $4.4 M
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (590 theaters) - $4.3 M

FIVE-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST

  • Coco (3,987 theaters) - $77.2 M
  • Justice League - $60.1 M
  • Wonder - $30.4 M
  • Thor: Ragnarok (3,281 theaters) - $21.4 M
  • Daddy's Home 2 (3,518 theaters) - $16.3 M
  • Murder on the Orient Express (3,214 theaters) - $15.5 M
  • The Star (2,837 theaters) - $9.8 M
  • A Bad Moms Christmas (2,306 theaters) - $7.0 M
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (590 theaters) - $5.8 M
  • Lady Bird (791 theaters) - $5.6 M

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