News

'Jigsaw' Brings the 'Saw' Franchise Back to the Big Screen as 'Thor: Ragnarok' Debuts Overseas

by Brad Brevet
 

 
October 26, 2017

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: After pulling in an estimated $7.1 million on Friday (including $1.6 million from Thursday previews), Lionsgate's Jigsaw is expected to finish with $15-16 million for the weekend. The film received a "B" CinemaScore, which is an improvement over the last Saw film seven years ago and matches the scores for Saw III, Saw IV and Saw VI. In fact, Saw II is the only film in the franchise to ever score higher than a "B" with a "B+".

Universal's release of Amblin and DreamWorks's Thank You for Your Service pulled in an estimated $1.5 million on Friday and is trending toward a $4 million weekend. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore.

Meanwhile, Paramount's release of George Clooney's Suburbicon is struggling, bringing in an estimated $1.1 million on Friday and looking at a dismal $3 million for the weekend. The film narrowly missed out becoming the studio's second release in a row to score an "F" CinemaScore as opening day audiences gave it a "D-", only 12 other films have received that grade.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Lionsgate's Jigsaw delivered a strong $1.6 million at over 2,400 locations on Thursday night. Related to comps used in our weekend preview below, this result doubles the $800k Rings brought in from Thursday previews before its $13 million debut, improves on Ouija's $911k preview gross and the $1.2 million from previews for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, suggesting a $20+ million opening may be in the offing.

Universal and DreamWorks Pictures' Thank You for Your Service grossed $280,000 from late night shows in 1,760 theaters. There isn't much to compare to, but this is a bit below the $305k Only the Brave brought in last week before its $6 million debut.

Paramount's Suburbicon was very quiet last night, collecting just $180k in preview grosses from 1,614 locations.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Over the last couple of years, October hasn't been the haven for horror one would think it would be. This year, however, not only has the year itself been dominated by top quality horror releases, but It got a jump start on the scary season with a September release and October has already had Happy Death Day debut with strong numbers. This weekend, Lionsgate hopes to give the genre another jolt with Jigsaw, which brings the Saw franchise back to the big screen after a seven year hiatus. Additional new releases include George Clooney's Suburbicon and Universal's Thank You for Your Service while Dimension will finally release Amityville: The Awakening after over five years of the film bouncing around the release schedule.

Expected to finish #1 this weekend, Lionsgate brings back one of the studio's most iconic characters with Jigsaw. Michael and Peter Spierig (Daybreakers) directed the film, which arrives seven years after Saw 3D debuted with $22.5 million. That was one year after Saw VI opened with just $14.1 million, the lowest opening of the franchise, which also led to a franchise low, $27.7 million domestically. While 3D helped the 2010 installment generate some additional dollars, it's a big question mark as to whether or not fans are still interested in a franchise that appeared to be as dead as this film's title character... or is he?

Heading into the weekend, expectations for Jigsaw are for an opening in the high teens to low $20 million. Of course, this immediately conjures up memories of last year's release of Blair Witch, which Mojo aggressively forecasted a $20 million debut against industry expectations in the mid-to-high teens. The film, however, couldn't even manage that, ultimately debuting with $9.6 million and closing its run with just over $20 million. There is, of course, a difference between a franchise sequel debuting 17 years after the original and Jigsaw stepping out for a seven-years-later encore.

Looking at IMDb page view data, Jigsaw is performing favorably when compared to the likes of Blair Witch as well as pacing ahead of Ouija ($19.8m opening), Rings ($13m opening) and Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones ($18.3m opening). Another comparison we're reminded of is 2011's Scream 4, which opened with $18.6 million eleven years after Scream 3. While Scream 4's debut was considered something of a disappointment for the $40 million budgeted film, an $18+ million opening for Jigsaw and its reported $10 million budget would be just fine, not to mention deliver a second straight weekend on top for Lionsgate.

In fact, Lionsgate is looking at securing the numbers one and two spots this weekend as Tyler Perry's Boo 2! should land in the runner-up position. We're expecting the film to dip in the neighborhood of 53% or so this weekend for a $10 million sophomore session. Come Sunday the film's domestic gross should top $35 million.

Third place is likely to also be a holdover as WB's Geostorm should drop around 54% or so and walk away with a three-day around $6.3 million for a domestic cume right around $25 million after ten days in release.

Looking at a fourth place finish is George Clooney's latest effort, Suburbicon, debuting in 2,046 locations and industry expectations are for an opening around $5-7 million. Paramount acquired the U.S. distribution rights for approximately $10 million back in February 2016 and the film premiered at the Venice and Toronto film festivals this fall where reviews weren't exactly kind as it currently holds a 43 rating on Metacritic. IMDb page view comparisons for films such as Whiskey Tango Foxtrot and Our Brand is Crisis find it settling somewhere in the middle, agreeing with pre-release tracking.

And rounding out the top five is the second of three horror films within this weekend's top five in Universal and Blumhouse's Happy Death Day, which dropped a little heavier than expected last weekend, but has already generated over $42 million domestically. Mojo's forecast is for a weekend around $4.5 million, which would leave it a couple million shy of $50 million come end of day Sunday.

Outside the top five is where we find Universal's release of Thank You for Your Service. Universal is distributing the $20 million production, which was financed by Amblin and DreamWorks, and expectations for the film's debut are in the mid-single digits. Looking at IMDb page views for similar titles, the one that pops out the most is June's release of Megan Leavey, which opened with $3.8 million in 1,956 theaters. Thank You for Your Service will debut in 2,054 locations this weekend and a debut at or around $4 million feels like a best bet.

Rounding out the top ten, look for WB's It to bring in $2+ million, pushing the film's domestic cume over $323 million. By the end of the weekend It should rank #54 all-time domestically and will soon top Suicide Squad's $325.1 million domestic run.

Outside the top ten, Open Road is releasing All I See is You into 283 theaters. The film carries a reported, $30 million budget, but this is a service deal for Open Road who is just distributing the feature and will receive a distribution fee while a third party put up the cash for P&A.

Also, blink and you'll miss it, but Weinstein Co. and Dimension are finally releasing Amityville: The Awakening into ten theaters starting on Saturday. The film started playing internationally back in July and has so far grossed $7.2 million overseas, but it has bounced around the release schedule for over five years after first being slated for a January 2012 release. Since then it has held no fewer than five different release dates.

Finally, in advance of its opening next weekend, Disney and Marvel's Thor: Ragnarok began its international release two days ago, so far bringing in $12.8 million. Leading the way is the U.K., which was the only market to open on Tuesday, with $4.8 million. Additional one-day results includes $2.3 million from South Korea, $1.9 million in France, $1.2 million in Taiwan and $900k in Indonesia. Thus far, the film is running slightly ahead of Doctor Strange from the same suite of markets. By Sunday the film will have debuted in 52% of the international marketplace with openings today in Australia, Brazil, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Argentina, Panama, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile and Colombia.

This weekend's domestic forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Jigsaw (2,941 theaters) - $18.0 M
  • Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (2,388 theaters) - $10.0 M
  • Geostorm (3,246 theaters) - $6.3 M
  • Suburbicon (2,046 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • Happy Death Day (3,531 theaters) - $4.9 M
  • Blade Runner 2049 (2,421 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • Thank You for Your Service (2,054 theaters) - $4.0 M
  • Only The Brave (2,577 theaters) - $3.9 M
  • The Foreigner (2,505 theaters) - $3.5 M
  • It (2,538 theaters) - $2.3 M

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