Tyler Perry's 'Boo 2!' Set to Scare Up a #1 Finish
by Brad Brevet
October 19, 2017
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween delivered an estimated $7.47 million on Friday and is currently expected to deliver $21+ million over the three-day opening. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore.
WB's Geostorm delivered and estimated $4.2 million and is on track for an opening anywhere from $12-23 million. The film received a "B-" CinemaScore.
Sony's Only the Brave brought in an estimated $2.1 million along with an "A" CinemaScore and is looking at an opening around $6.2 million.
Universal's The Snowman is living up to its negative reviews and online chatter, delivering an estimated $1.3 million on Friday and looking at a dismal debut unlikely to top $4 million. The film received a "D" CinemaScore.
Looking to finish ahead of The Snowman is Pure Flix's release of Same Kind of Different as Me, which brought in an estimated $1.36 million on Friday and is looking at a weekend anywhere from $3.5-4 million. The film received an "A" CinemaScore.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Leading the charge on Thursday night was Lionsgate's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, which brought in $760,000 last night from ~2,000 locations. This is just a bit below the $855k the first film brought in last year prior to its $28.5 million opening.
Sony's Only the Brave took in $305K from Thursday previews shows starting at 7pm. Using our comparison to Patriots Day from our weekend preview below, that film brought in $560k from preview showings before its $11.6 million wide opening.
Universal's The Snowman grossed $270,000 in late night shows in 1,550 theaters. Using the comparison from our weekend, preview, Triple 9 brought in $335k from Thursday previews before its $6.1 million opening. Additionally, last year's Criminal brought in $235k from preview showings before its $5.7 million debut.
Geostorm did not hold any preview screenings.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: This same weekend last year saw Tyler Perry's Boo! A Madea Halloween debut with a chart-topping $28.5 million, besting Tom Cruise and Jack Reacher: Never Go Back on its way to two straight weekends at #1 and nearly $75 million domestically. Boo! ranks as the second highest grossing in Perry's directorial career and this weekend Boo 2! hopes to find similar success, though it isn't the weekend's only new opener.
Boo 2! is just one of five new wide releases saturating the marketplace this weekend. Others vying for a spot in the weekend top ten include WB's big budget disaster flick Geostorm, Sony's Only The Brave, Universal's The Snowman and Pure Flix's Same Kind of Different as Me. It's a very crowded marketplace, but other than Boo 2!, it doesn't look like any of the weekend's newcomers will have a significant impact, meaning the top twelve is likely to generate little more than a combined $90 million.
On the heels of the massive success of Perry's Boo!, Boo 2! will debut in 2,388 theaters and is expected to top $20 million. Of Perry's Madea features, only 2013's A Madea Christmas opened with less than $21 million and when looking at IMDb page view data for that film as well as the first Boo! film, Boo 2! has shown significant gains over the last week as the film's marketing campaign ramped up heavily starting last Friday the 13th, including a Madea Snapchat lens that garnered over 80 million impressions.
Given Boo 2! is a comedy sequel we aren't going into the weekend expecting it to match the $28.5 million opening for the last film, but a $25 million forecast doesn't seem all that aggressive.
After a spectacular opening last weekend, Happy Death Day is looking like a second place finisher this weekend. The film opened just a fraction ahead of 2015's fellow Blumhouse production The Visit, and it only seems apt to anticipate a similar second weekend performance. The Visit dipped 54.5% in its sophomore session and should Happy Death Day follow suit we're looking at a $11.8 million three-day, pushing its domestic total over $43 million after ten days of release.
Hoping to contend for that second place spot, Warner Bros. is releasing their climate disaster feature Geostorm into 3,246 theaters. Unfortunately, the film isn't showing signs of performing up to its reported $120 million budget. IMDb page view data shows it pacing behind the likes of Into the Storm ($17.3m opening) and 2014's Pompeii ($10.3m opening), the latter of which feels like a better comparison at this point and one reason why we're anticipating an opening right around $10 million, give or take a million on either side.
Spots four through seven are a bit up in the air at this point with WB's Blade Runner 2049 in the mix alongside last week's new opener The Foreigner, both of which are looking at weekends right around $7 million. At the same time, it looks as if Sony's Only the Brave and Universal's The Snowman will be jockeying for position within a range of $6-7.5 million.
Sony's based on a true story wildfire drama Only the Brave has received strong reviews so far — currently rated a 75 on Metacritic — and boasts a large ensemble cast including Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges, James Badge Dale, Taylor Kitsch and Jennifer Connelly. However, after examining similar titles and IMDb page view data, the best comparisons appear to be films such as Patriots Day and The 33, which debuted with $11.6 million and $5.8 million over their wide opening weekends respectively. Given the wide range in those two openings, the 2,452 theater opening for The 33 hues much closer to the 2,577 for Only the Brave compared to the 3,120 theaters Patriots Day played in after its limited debut. Mojo's current forecast is for an opening around $7.3 million.
Universal's The Snowman is only getting 1,812 theaters for its debut with tracking currently suggesting an opening in the high single digits. Based on the Jo Nesbø novel and starring Michael Fassbender, the thriller has not generated strong reviews, as it currently rates a disappointing 26 on Metacritic, and a Twitter moment declares "The Snowman could be 2017's worst film". Added to that, IMDb page view comparisons don't look much better. Despite a surge in interest following the film's second trailer back in early September, interest has mostly waned with Triple 9 ($6.1 million) emerging as our best comp. As such, Mojo's forecast is for an opening around $6.4 million.
The last of the weekend's new releases is Pure Flix's faith-based feature Same Kind of Different as Me. Debuting in 1,362 theaters, the film is looking to keep pace with previous Pure Flix films such as The Case for Christ, Woodlawn and Do You Believe? which debuted between $3.5-4 million in a similar number of theaters. IMDb page view data shows Same Kind of Different as Me pacing just a bit behind all three and while there is a chance it falls short of $3 million, we're keeping optimistic it will settle in at the bottom of the top ten, right around $3.2 million.
In limited release this weekend, Reliance's Golmaal Again will be arriving in 265 locations; A24's The Killing of the Sacred Deer will hope to get off to a good start in four theaters; and Roadside will be releasing Wonderstruck from Amazon Studios in four theaters.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (2,388 theaters) - $25.0 M
- Happy Death Day (3,154 theaters) - $11.8 M
- Geostorm (3,246 theaters) - $10.0 M
- Only The Brave (2,577 theaters) - $7.3 M
- Blade Runner 2049 (3,203 theaters) - $7.2 M
- The Foreigner (2,515 theaters) - $6.8 M
- The Snowman (1,812 theaters) - $6.4 M
- It (2,876 theaters) - $3.9 M
- The Mountain Between Us (3,151 theaters) - $3.3 M
- Same Kind of Different as Me (1,362 theaters) - $3.2 M
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