Sagging Summer 2017 Comes to an End with a Whimper
by Brad Brevet
August 31, 2017
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $2.4 million, The Hitman's Bodyguard topped Friday's box office on its way to a third straight weekend at #1, looking to deliver nearly $9.5 million for the three-day and nearly $12 million for the four-day holiday. Annabelle: Creation falls into second place with $1.8 million on Friday, heading toward a $6.8 million three-day and the Weinstein's Wind River delivered an estimated $1.5 million on Friday and is looking at a three-day around $5.5-6 million.
As for the weekend's new releases, Sony's re-release of Close Encounters of the Third Kind brought in an estimated $485k and is looking at a solid $1.6 million for the three-day, likely to find a spot in the top twelve. The Weinstein's Tulip Fever brought in an estimated $357k and is looking at a three-day around $1.2 million and Lionsgate's Hazlo Como Hombre is falling well short of our forecast after bringing in an estimated $347k on Friday, headed toward a three-day around $1.2 million.
Finally, while we don't have official word from IMAX yet, rival estimates place Marvel's Inhumans around $500k on Friday, looking at a weekend around $1.35 million. We hope to have official estimates tomorrow morning and until then won't be adding the film's grosses to Mojo's charts.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: It has been 25 years since Labor Day weekend has not seen a new film debut in over 1,000 theaters. The largest "new" release over Labor Day weekend 2017 is Sony's re-release of Steven Spielberg's Close Encounters of the Third Kind, which will be ushered into 901 locations followed by The Weinstein Co.'s Tulip Fever, which recently moved up to take advantage of the absence of a wide release, but will still only launch in 765 locations. Otherwise, Lionsgate is releasing Pantelion's Hazlo Como Hombre in nearly 400 theaters and, despite the disparity in theater count, is likely to be the only one of the three to crack the top ten.
Benefitting from the recent struggles at the box office will be Lionsgate's The Hitman's Bodyguard, which will soon be able to boast it enjoyed three straight weekends atop the weekend box office. This weekend we're anticipating a drop-off around 32% over the three-day and a four-day gross around $9 million or so as the action comedy tops $50 million domestically.
WB and New Line's Annabelle: Creation should finish in second, delivering somewhere around $5 million for the three-day and a four-day around $6.5 million. The film is approaching $90 million domestically and will soon give way to next weekend's release of It, which is guaranteed to break the September opening weekend record as well as become the largest horror opener of all-time from over 4,000 theaters.
The Weinstein Co.'s Wind River saw decent business during its major expansion last weekend and is adding another 507 theaters this week. Expecting a small drop from last weekend, we're anticipating a $4+ million three-day and a four-day around $5.2 million. The same goes for the Weinstein's Leap, which we also see finishing around $4 million for the three-day and perhaps edging Wind River for third place for the four-day.
WB's Dunkirk is looking to rise in the rankings compared to last week and round out the top five. The World War II actioner is only losing 22 theaters this weekend and should manage to finish somewhere around $4 million for the three-day and $5 million for the holiday. The film is approaching $180 million domestically and will hit that mark next week, continuing to pace ahead of director Christopher Nolan's 2014 feature Interstellar, which finished its run with $188 million domestically.
As for the week's new releases, Lionsgate's release of Pantelion's Hazlo Como Hombre is the only one likely to crack the top ten. Over the same weekend last year No Manches Frida debuted in 362 locations and brought in $3.7 million and Hazlo Como Hombre is performing similarly to Frida when looking at IMDb page views leading up to release. Additionally, the two films had similar, $3.2 million bows in Mexico, but whether that translates to similar performances for the U.S. release remains to be seen. All told, additional metrics within IMDb's page view results put Hombre at a slight disadvantage compared to Frida, though it seems a solid bet to expect a $2.7+ million debut over the three-day and a four-day around $3.3 million.
After a lengthy delay and no fewer than four release date changes since originally slated to hit theaters in July 2016, the Weinstein's Tulip Fever is unlikely to crack the top ten and probably fall short of the top 15. Right now, it's possible the film could hit $1.5 million, though we aren't holding our breath.
As for Sony's re-release of Close Encounters of the Third Kind ahead of the film's 40th anniversary, they are certainly going all out as nearly half of the 900 theaters the film is playing in will be PLF locations. Expectations are around $750k-$1 million for the four-day holiday. Comps to re-releases such as Sony's Ghostbusters re-release in 2014 over the same weekend, which brought in $1.75 million, are tough to make given the 3-D element.
Additionally, Marvel Television's Inhumans will be premiering its pilot episodes on 393 IMAX screens domestically and ~680 screens in 64 markets globally this weekend. Forecasting this one is tough, though when Warner Bros. released Game of Thrones onto IMAX screens back in 2015 it generated $1.5 million from 205 locations domestically.
While there aren't any major new wide releases, there are several limited titles bowing this weekend including The Film Arcade's I Do... Until I Don't; IFC will release Viceroy's House into four theaters; Freestyle's A Boy Called Po arrives in 10 locations and FilmRise will release The Vault starring James Franco and Taryn Manning.
Overall, we're anticipating a three-day that sees the top twelve deliver a combined $42 million, contributing very little to one of the worst Augusts of all-time, currently pacing 36% behind last year. This also marks the final weekend of a lackluster summer that is currently pacing 14.4% behind last year while the yearly domestic box office is now -6.2% off from last year.
This weekend's three and four-day forecasts are directly below. This post will be updated with Friday estimates on Saturday morning followed by a weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- The Hitman's Bodyguard (3,370 theaters) - $7.1 M
- Annabelle: Creation (3,358 theaters) - $5.1 M
- Wind River (2,602 theaters) - $4.0 M
- Leap! (2,705 theaters) - $4.0 M
- Dunkirk (2,752 theaters) - $4.0 M
- Logan Lucky (2,975 theaters) - $3.3 M
- Spider-Man: Homecoming (2,036 theaters) - $2.7 M
- Hazlo Como Hombre (382 theaters) - $2.7 M
- The Emoji Movie (2,108 theaters) - $2.3 M
- Birth of the Dragon (1,633 theaters) - $2.3 M
- The Hitman's Bodyguard (3,370 theaters) - $9.1 M
- Annabelle: Creation (3,358 theaters) - $6.7 M
- Wind River (2,602 theaters) - $5.2 M
- Leap! (2,705 theaters) - $5.2 M
- Dunkirk (2,752 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Logan Lucky (2,975 theaters) - $4.2 M
- Spider-Man: Homecoming (2,036 theaters) - $3.5 M
- Hazlo Como Hombre (382 theaters) - $3.3 M
- The Emoji Movie (2,108 theaters) - $3.0 M
- Birth of the Dragon (1,633 theaters) - $2.9 M
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