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'Spider-Man: Homecoming' Looks to Ensnare $100+ Million Opening

by Brad Brevet
 

 
July 6, 2017

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $51.2 million on Friday, Sony's release of Spider-Man: Homecoming is looking at a three-day weekend around $120-125 million. Without adjusting for inflation that would be the second highest opening for a Spider-Man film and around $30 million more than the $91.6 million brought in by The Amazing Spider-Man 2 in 2014. It would also be just behind the $128.1 million Iron Man 2 opened with in 2010 as Spidey is settling in nicely within the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The film received an "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

GET MORE: Track how Spider-Man: Homecoming compares to the two other Summer 2017 superhero features, Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Additionally, while Focus's The Beguiled is performing a bit behind our expectations, looking at an $2 million weekend, Amazon and Lionsgate's The Big Sick is looking to over perform after delivering an estimated $1.1 million on Friday, heading toward a weekend around $3.6 million from just 326 locations ahead of its nationwide expansion next week.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: With $15.4 million from Thursday night previews in 3,493 locations, Spider-Man: Homecoming is off to a stellar start. This is just shy of the $15.6 million Iron Man 3 brought in before opening with $174 million. It's also an improvement on the $11.2 million Guardians of the Galaxy brought in before opening with $94.3 million. Compared to the last two Spider-Man films, The Amazing Spider-Man brought in $7.5 million, though those were from Tuesday night previews, while The Amazing Spider-Man 2 kicked things off with $8.7 million from Thursday preview screenings before opening with $91.6 million. For one last comparison, Wonder Woman debuted with $11 million from preview screenings last month before opening with $103.2 million.

You can check out our full weekend preview below and we'll be updating this post tomorrow morning with Friday estimates.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: As some franchise films have struggled to match opening weekend expectations this summer, Sony makes ready with their latest attempt to bring Spider-Man to the big screen with Spider-Man: Homecoming. One major difference this time being the involvement of Marvel Studios as the web-slinger joins the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Will it pay off? And speaking of franchise films, just how will Despicable Me 3 perform in its second weekend after falling short of expectations over the July 4 holiday, a weekend that saw Edgar Wright's Baby Driver steal a lot of the attention with a strong second place finish, eventually becoming the director's highest grossing domestic release after just six days.

Appearing resilient to any measure of fatigue, the feature introduction of Spider-Man into the Marvel Cinematic Universe is sure to result in big numbers and Spider-Man: Homecoming finishing atop the weekend box office. Sony is releasing the film in 4,348 North American theaters, of which 392 will feature the film in IMAX along with 601 PLF locations. As for expectations, the studio is remaining extremely conservative with their estimate, anticipating an $80 million debut, which, based on what we're looking at, is well below where this one is going to end up.

In terms of metrics, Homecoming has performed well on IMDb, with page view performance pacing on par or ahead of Doctor Strange over the last couple months, which opened with $85 million in early November last year. It's also attempting to keep pace with Fox's Logan ($88m opening) while pacing ahead of WB's Wonder Woman which debuted with $103.2 million just last month. Helping matters, the film has been well received by critics as it currently holds a score of 73 on Metacritic and a 93% on RottenTomatoes. All that's left is to wonder if audiences are ready to accept the third incarnation of Spider-Man in just 15 years, and based on the warm welcome he received during his cameo appearance in Captain America: Civil War last year that doesn't seem like it will be much of an issue as the expanded Marvel Universe appears to be playing a major factor once again.

As for our expectations, an opening over $90 million seems almost a foregone conclusion and given audience love for the Marvel Universe and not to mention Spider-Man as a character, there's no reason to expect this one won't open over $100 million. Taking into account historical averages among a range of other metrics (Metacritic, genre, distributor, month of release, etc.) for films opening on this scale, the range becomes $98-113 million. That said, we're anticipating a $110+ million and we'll get an early clue as to how the film is performing tomorrow morning, following Thursday evening shows which begin tonight at 7PM in 3,450 theaters.

In runner-up position, look for Universal and Illumination's Despicable Me 3 to finish in second after taking the top spot last weekend with $72.4 million. As for a drop, we're looking at a 50%+ dip given the film debuted with $11+ million less than its predecessor and dipped much further than expected after Friday estimates just last weekend. That said, a drop around 54% seems a safe bet as the film should bring in around $33 million as it inches toward $150 million domestically.

In third place and sporting an "A-" CinemaScore, score of 86 on Metacritic and an IMDb user rating of 8.4/10, Baby Driver is looking at a solid second weekend. After opening on Wednesday last week, the film delivered $20.5 million over the three-day weekend and we're expecting a drop no greater than 30% this weekend. In fact, we're looking at a drop around 27% for a weekend around $15 million for a domestic cume just shy of $60 million after 12 days in release.

WB's Wonder Woman is looking at a fourth place finish as it will likely finish the weekend a couple million shy of $370 million domestically. Meanwhile, Transformers: The Last Knight should round out the top five as it pushes over $120 million domestically, a figure its predecessor managed after just five days of release while The Last Knight will have been in theaters for 19 days come end of day Sunday.

Elsewhere, we'll be keeping a close eye on Sofia Coppola's The Beguiled, which delivered an eighth place finish last weekend while playing in just 674 theaters. This weekend it adds another 267 theaters for 941 total and while forecasting in these situations is difficult comparisons to recent films such as The Zookeeper's Wife and The Lost City of Z suggest only a mild drop from last weekend if not another bump. That being said, we're anticipating a performance close to last weekend if not a mild improvement, somewhere around $3-3.5 million and another eighth place finish.

Also looking at a bump this weekend is Lionsgate's release of The Big Sick from Amazon Studios, which won't go wide until next weekend, but is adding 255 locations this weekend (326 total) after finishing in twelfth position last weekend while playing in just 71 theaters. As with The Beguiled, forecasting just how well the film will perform in its expansion is tough to say, but looking at similarly performing films in their third and fourth weeks it's not at all unreasonable to anticipate a 75% jump for a $2.89 million weekend, but we'll remain a little conservative and forecast a 51% improvement over last weekend a a $2.5 million three-day.

It's looking "ghostly" in limited release this weekend as A24 will debut A Ghost Story in four theaters and IFC is releasing Amazon Studios' City of Ghosts in two locations.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Spider-Man: Homecoming (4,348 theaters) - $110 M
  • Despicable Me 3 (4,536 theaters) - $33.3 M
  • Baby Driver (3,226 theaters) - $15.1 M
  • Wonder Woman (3,091 theaters) - $10.2 M
  • Transformers: The Last Knight (3,241 theaters) - $7.9 M
  • The House (3,134 theaters) - $5.1 M
  • Cars 3 (2,702 theaters) - $4.7 M
  • The Beguiled (941 theaters) - $3.3 M
  • The Big Sick (326 theaters) - $2.5 M
  • 47 Meters Down (1,740 theaters) - $2.3 M

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo and author Brad Brevet at @bradbrevet.



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