'Furious 8' Will Threepeat, 'Baahubali 2' Looks Strong & 'Guardians 2' Debuts Overseas
by Brad Brevet
April 27, 2017
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: As expected, it will be The Fate of the Furious atop the weekend box office once again. The film brought in an estimated $5.1 million on Friday and is expected to bring in about $18.5 million for the weekend. Coming in second is a bit of a surprise, however, as Lionsgate and Pantelion's How to be a Latin Lover stormed the box office on Friday to the tune of an estimated $3.9 million and is now expected to bring in no less than $12 million for its three-day opening.
Third place could be a tight race, starting with STX's The Circle, which brought in an estimated $3.2 million on Friday and is expected to make a little over $9 million for the weekend. Outperforming The Circle on Friday, however, was Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, which brought in an estimated $4.75 million (including $2.5 million from Thursday previews) and is also expected to bring in anywhere from $8-9 million for the three-day weekend.
As for BH Tilt's Sleight, the film brought in an estimated $582,000 on Friday and is expected to bring in a little over $1.5 million for the three-day.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and well be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE #2: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 continues its international roll-out as it opened in an additional 17 material markets yesterday bringing its international gross to an estimated $22.3 million. We will be updating individual territory charts once the weekend has concluded, but for now here's the breakdown:
- Australia - $6.2M
- France - $2.7M
- Italy - $2.0M
- Germany - $1.5M
- Brazil - $1.2M
- New Zealand - $1.1M
- Philippines - $1.1M
- Indonesia - $0.9M
- Thailand - $0.7M
- Sweden - $0.6M
- Taiwan - $0.6M
- Netherlands - $0.5M
- Other markets - $3.2M
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 continues its roll out this weekend with openings in the UK, Spain, Mexico, Turkey, Vietnam, Venezuela and Ecuador today.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE #1: As expected Baahubali 2: The Conclusion got off to a very strong start last night, pulling in $2.5 million from 330 locations, though those are only early estimates as all theaters have not yet reported so we'll be waiting for more official numbers later today or tomorrow.
Additionally, Lionsgate's release of Pantelion's How to be a Latin Lover brought in an estimated $450,000 last night from 925 theaters while STX's The Circle brought in $430,000 from ~1,500 theaters with previews beginning at 7PM.
We'll be back tomorrow morning with a look at Friday estimates, in the meantime you can read our weekend preview directly below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The Fate of the Furious will repeat at the top of the box office one more time this weekend while STX's The Circle should deliver the largest opening among the crop of new releases. One of those new releases, however, is looking like it just might deliver some fireworks, that being the release of Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, the sequel to the breakout 2015 hit which is debuting in nearly double the number of theaters in North America compared to the original, which opened with $3.6 million. Additionally, Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 gets its start internationally this weekend in approximately 58% of the international marketplace ahead of its domestic debut next weekend.
After dipping 61% last weekend, Fate of the Furious is looking at yet another easy #1 finish as we expect it to drop around 40%, finishing around $23 million for the weekend as its domestic cume should be just shy of $200 million by end of day Sunday. Internationally the film has racked up $794.2 million so far and debuts in Japan this weekend as it will soon top $1 billion worldwide.
Looking to finish second is STX's first release in their three-year deal with EuropaCorp, the near-future thriller The Circle starring Emma Watson, Tom Hanks and John Boyega. Directed by James Ponsoldt, the film is based on the novel by Dave Eggers and will debut in 3,163 theaters where it's expected to deliver a double digit opening. All the signals we're seeing are pointing in that direction as well as our forecast is for an opening right around $15 million, plus-minus a million or so on either side.
The next new release isn't going "wide" per se, but it's definitely going to have an impact on the box office as Great India Films releases Baahubali 2: The Conclusion into ~450 North American theaters of which 45 or so will be showing the film in IMAX and about 50 will show the film on large format screens. This is nearly double the number of screens Baahubali: The Beginning opened on in 2015 when it debuted with $3.6 million and we're told early expectations for the sequel are around $7-8 million. However, those expectations could prove conservative given some of the reporting around this film, which has reportedly brought in over $3 million in pre-sales, much of which are for Thursday night showings alone.
Next is Lionsgate's release of Pantelion's How to be a Latin Lover starring Eugenio Derbez and Salma Hayek. Expectations for the film, which is debuting in 1,118 theaters, are tough to nail down as the industry range is currently $4-7 million for what is Pantelion's widest release yet. Previously, Instructions Not Included, which also starred Derbez, opened with $7.8 million from just 348 theaters over the three-day Labor Day weekend in 2013. Given Latin Lover is debuting in more than triple the number of theaters what does that mean for the film's chances? Given what we're looking at when taking similar titles into consideration, and even attempting to weigh Latin Lover's IMDb page view performance against Instructions despite the theater count difference, we're anticipating an opening around $5.8-6.2 million.
A couple of holdover titles are also worth keeping an eye on beginning with Fox Searchlight's Gifted, which didn't exactly get off to a blazing start during its limited debut earlier this month, but has shown some signs of life since. Last weekend it found its way into the top ten as it expanded into nearly 2,000 theaters and delivered $4.6 million. This weekend it crosses that 2,000 theater threshold, adding another 229 locations and we're expecting it to hold strong and deliver around $4 million or so this weekend.
It will also be interesting to see how Bleecker's The Lost City of Z holds up. Last week it found its way into the top ten with $2.1 million from 614 locations. This weekend it expands to 866 locations and while we're expecting it to fall short of the top ten, bringing in around $2 million or so, we wouldn't be surprised to see it finish a little higher.
The last new release of the weekend could also find itself challenging for a spot in the top ten is BH Tilt's Sleight, which is debuting in 565 theaters. BH Tilt, along with WWE Studios, acquired the film out of Sundance 2016 for what was reported to be a low seven figure deal. The film was reportedly made on a $250,000 budget and BH Tilt has implemented a targeted marketing scheme, hoping to lure 17-34 year-olds into the theater. Hopes are for an opening in the $1.5-2 million range given the smaller theater count and targeted marketing spend, but we're having a hard time anticipating anything over $1.2 million right now.
Of course, this weekend's pre-release conversation doesn't end with the domestic box office as Guardians of the Galaxy 2 is already in the midst of its international roll-out in which it will debut in 58% of the overseas markets. This includes openings in Australia, Italy, France, Sweden, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Germany, Brazil, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Spain, UK and Mexico. Next weekend Guardians 2 will arrive in ~4,200 theaters domestically with early tracking suggesting a $130-150 million opening. Opening day-and-date with the domestic release are additional markets such as Korea, Russia, Argentina, China and India.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- The Fate of the Furious (4,076 theaters) - $22.6 M
- The Circle (3,163 theaters) - $14.5 M
- The Boss Baby (3,739 theaters) - $10.0 M
- Baahubali 2: The Conclusion (425 theaters) - $9.5 M
- Beauty and the Beast (3,155 theaters) - $6.8 M
- How to be a Latin Lover (1,118 theaters) - $6.0 M
- Gifted (2,215 theaters) - $4.1 M
- Born in China (1,508 theaters) - $3.7 M
- Unforgettable (2,417 theaters) - $3.3 M
- Going in Style (2,761 theaters) - $3.1 M
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