'Hidden Figures' Topples New Releases to Take MLK Weekend While 'Rogue One' Passes $500 Million
by Brad Brevet
January 15, 2017
It wasn't necessarily an exciting Martin Luther King weekend, though it is rather astonishing to see how poorly all but one of the weekend's new and expanding wide releases performed. The weekend's successes find Hidden Figures leading the way for a second weekend, followed by Golden Globe juggernaut La La Land while it was STX's The Bye Bye Man that over performed against tracking and delivered the best new opening among the weekend's new and expanding releases, more than doubling the film's production budget over the four-day weekend.
At #1 for a second weekend in a row, Fox's Hidden Figures delivered an estimated $20.4 million for the three-day and is expected to finish over $25 million for the holiday weekend as its domestic cume will near $60 million by end of day Monday.
Finishing in second for the three-day is Lionsgate's La La Land, delivering an impressive $14.5 million for the three-day (+43.1%) from 1,848 theaters (+333), including 148 IMAX theaters, and expected to top $17 million for the four-day weekend as its domestic cume nears $80 million. Additionally, the film scored an estimated $17.8 million internationally which includes its opening weekend in the UK with $7.3 million and a #1 finish. The film's international cume has now reached $54.8 million as its worldwide gross climbs to over $130 million through Monday. La La Land will next hit theaters in Brazil on the 19th followed by France, Italy, Belgium and Sweden the following week. Domestically the next major expansion is expected to be the weekend after next, following the Oscar nominations.
The first of the weekend's new releases finds STX's The Bye Bye Man with a fifth place finish for the three-day as it took advantage of its Friday the 13th release date. The PG-13 chiller outperformed expectations, delivering an estimated $13.38 million over the three-day weekend and is expected to top $15 million for the four-day, which would more than double the film's $7.4 million production budget. Internationally the film debuted in eleven markets and brought in an estimated $1.3 million including a seventh place opening in the UK with an estimated $700k. The film will debut in Brazil on February 9 followed by releases in Mexico (March 17), Italy (April 19), Germany (April 20) and Spain (May 5).
Looking ahead domestically, STX has proven to be powerful marketers when it comes to low budget horror following The Gift and The Boy. Should Bye Bye Man follow suit it would be looking to top $40 million for its domestic run. Of course, The Forest debuted last January with $12.7 million and only went on to gross $26.5 million. Bye Bye's "C" CinemaScore matches that of The Forest (rather than the "B" range for both The Gift and The Boy) leading us to believe the film's overall run is likely to settle around $34 million. Bye Bye Man's opening weekend demographics showed the film playing to an audience that was 61% female with 75% of the overall audience coming in under the age of 25.
Next we come to Patriots Day, which fell well short of both industry and Mojo's weekend expectations as it grossed an estimated $12 million for the three-day weekend in its expansion into 3,120 theaters following a three-week limited run in seven theaters. The film is expected to gross just over $14 million for the four-day as its inability to reach the $20 million four-day many anticipated is most likely due to it not quite catching on as well as expected in middle America. The question now is just how good its legs will be as it did score an "A" CinemaScore during its limited run and an "A+" during its national breakout this weekend. At this time comparisons are being made to Hacksaw Ridge and 13 Hours, which would mean the difference between an overall run over $50 or around $40 million respectively. At this time a run ending around $43 million seems about right.
Paramount's release of Monster Trucks opened with an estimated $10.5 million for the three-day and is expected to gross just over $14 million for the four-day weekend. The film cost a reported $125 million and caused parent company Viacom to take a $115 million write-down last year. The film did manage to score an "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences of which 60% was under 25 and gave the film an "A+". The opening weekend's audience was 47% female vs. 53% male and, if it's lucky, it might be able to eek out a $35-40 million domestic run.
Internationally, Monster Trucks has opened in 17 overseas markets so far and brought in an estimated $4 million this weekend bringing its international gross to $14.7 million.
Finishing in eighth position is Open Road's corrupt cop thriller Sleepless, which opened with an estimated $8.46 million for the three-day and is expected to gross just over $10 million for the four-day weekend. The film scored a "B+" CinemaScore and could be looking at a run around $26 million.
Missing the top ten and delivering truly disastrous results is Ben Affleck's Live by Night, which brought in an estimated $5.4 million as it expanded into 2,822 theaters after playing in only four theaters since Christmas Day. The film also debuted internationally this weekend in 25 territories where it brought in an estimated $3.3 million including $873,000 from the UK, $720k from Russia and a $265k opening in Taiwan. The film will open this Wednesday in France followed by releases in Australia (Jan 26), Spain (Jan 27) and Germany (Feb 2).
Also expanding this weekend was Martin Scorsese's Silence, playing in 747 theaters (+696) and brought in an estimated $1.9 million for the three-day and is expected to finish around $2.3 million for the four-day weekend.
Finally, this weekend saw Rogue One: A Star Wars Story become the #1 release of 2016 with an estimated $13.8 million for the three-day which will climb to over $17 million by Monday, at which time it will become the only 2016 release to top $500 million domestically and only the seventh film of all-time to reach that mark.
Next weekend will see the return of Vin Diesel as the title character in Paramount's xXx: The Return of Xander Cage and M. Night Shyamalan's Split, both debuting in ~3,000 theaters along with The Weinstein Co's The Founder and High Top's The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, both opening in over 1,000 theaters. Additionally A24 will expand 20th Century Women nationwide while releasing Trespass Against Us into limited theaters.
You can see this weekend's three-day estimates right here and we will have four-day estimates tomorrow followed by actuals on Tuesday afternoon.
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