'Inferno' Takes on the World Series as 'Doctor Strange' Debuts Overseas
by Brad Brevet
October 27, 2016
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Sony's Inferno is looking at a weekend opening well below expectations after taking in an estimated $5.6 million on Friday from 3,576 domestic locations. It was enough for a first place finish on Friday and it looks as if it will take the #1 spot for the weekend somewhere around $16 million, but Lionsgate's Boo! A Madea Halloween is proving formidable. The Tyler Perry holiday comedy brought in an estimated $4.59 million on Friday and is expected to bring in a strong $15 million for the three-day, a drop right around 47%.
Meanwhile, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back is looking at a much steeper drop than projected. The film brought in an estimated $2.9 million on Friday and is looking at a second weekend around $9.7 million, a 58% drop.
FIP's limited release of Ae Dil Hai Mushkil is looking strong already with an estimated $765,000 on Friday, heading toward a weekend that could top $2.5 million and a top ten finish.
You can check out all the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend wrap-up.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Sony's Inferno got off to a relatively slow start, bringing in $800,000 from Thursday night screenings, which began at 7 PM in 2,874 locations. Recent films that topped $20 million openings, such as The Girl on the Train, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and The Accountant all topped $1.23 million on Thursday night, as did Tom Hanks' Sully at the beginning of September. Deepwater Horizon, however, brought in $860,000 one month ago before opening with $20.2 million and Hanks' Captain Phillips, however, brought in just $600,000 from Thursday night screenings before opening with $25.6 million in October 2013, which probably gives us our best idea of a high-low range for the weekend.
We will have Friday estimates tomorrow and a full recap of the weekend on Sunday morning. You can read our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: This weekend Tom Hanks returns as Robert Langdon in Inferno, the third Dan Brown novel adapted for the big screen. It's the only new wide release in the domestic market this weekend after four new wide releases hit theaters last week, helping deliver the largest three-day weekend the 2016 box office has seen since late August.
This weekend's top twelve won't gross over $100 million, as was the case last weekend, but a combined total anywhere from $80-85 million is expected, a significant improvement over the same weekend last year. One big question mark, however, is the World Series with games set for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Chicago is a top five market and with the Cubs in the Series for the first time since 1945 the impact will be felt, though just how much of an impact the Series will have on weekend receipts isn't entirely clear.
Set for a #1 finish domestically, Sony's release of Inferno will debut in 3,576 theaters this weekend, including 377 IMAX and 400 PLF locations. Thursday night preview screenings will take place in 2,874 theaters, beginning at 7 PM. The film marks the third in a trilogy of features that began ten years ago with The Da Vinci Code, which delivered $758.2 million worldwide in 2006 on a $125 million budget. Three years later Angels & Demons finished its global run $272.3 million shy of Da Vinci with $485.9 million worldwide on a budget of $150 million. While grossing over $1.2 billion worldwide, neither film was particularly well received and Inferno isn't fairing any better as it currently has a 23% rating on RottenTomatoes.
Hoping to make up for what is clearly declining interest in the franchise, Inferno was made for a reported budget of $75 million, with designs on a $300+ million worldwide run. With over $100 million in the bank so far internationally, the biggest factor looking forward will be the film's dependence on China where it also releases this weekend. The Da Vinci Code brought in $13.2 million in China while Angels & Demons didn't see a China release.
Domestically, industry expectations for Inferno are right around $25 million, well below the $77 million opening for Da Vinci as well as the $46.2 million opening for Angels & Demons, signaling a franchise that is on its last leg. Looking at recent IMDb page view data for Inferno versus titles such as recent $20+ million openers including Deepwater Horizon and The Accountant, Fall titles starring Tom Hanks from Captain Phillips to Sully, as well as a selection of sequels, the film is pacing right in line with expectations. All to say an opening anywhere from $23-27 million seems most likely with the outside change at an opening around $30 million.
Moving to last weekend's holdovers, second place should belong to Tom Cruise's Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which opened with $22.8 million last weekend. Looking at previous Cruise titles for comparison, after opening with $28.7 million Edge of Tomorrow dropped 42.5% in its second weekend during Summer 2014 and Knight & Day, another summer release, dropped 48% in its second weekend. Like the Reacher sequel, both films also scored a "B+" CinemaScore. Should Never Go Back manage to drop right around 40% it could be looking at a $13.7 million second weekend, though we're expecting something a little closer to 45% and a sophomore frame right around $12.5 million.
In third we find last weekend's champion, Tyler Perry's Boo! A Madea Halloween, which may get a small bump thanks to its holiday timing. After a $16 million opening in 2013, Perry's A Madea Christmas dipped 48% in its second weekend, but only fell 18% over the weekend following Christmas. Madea's Witness Protection and Madea's Big Happy Family both opened just over $25 million and fell right around 60% in their respective second weekends. An argument for a steeper drop after the film's $28.5 million opening is much easier to make based purely on size, though it might be able to hold on a bit better than a 60% drop, earning a weekend right around $12 million, though don't be surprised if it comes in a bit lower.
Warner's The Accountant is looking at a fourth place finish around $8 million as it recently topped $50 million and should end up right around $60 million by end of day Sunday. Universal's Ouija: Origin of Evil should round out the top five, most likely dropping 50% or so for a second weekend around $7 million.
This weekend also sees the release of Ae Dil Hai Mushkil, opening in 302 theaters the film should finish the weekend around $1-1.5 million. Additional limited releases include Magnolia's Gimme Danger; China Lion will release Mr. Donkey; and Paladin will release the horror film The Unspoken.
In addition to the domestic market, we may see some fireworks overseas this weekend. Inferno has already grossed over $100 million from 64 markets around the globe after being released overseas on October 12, and will be released day-and-date in China this weekend. Additionally, overseas markets will see the continued expansion of Fox's Trolls into over 25 more territories, including Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Russia and Spain, while Disney will begin the international roll-out of the latest Marvel release, Doctor Strange, into 32 markets, including the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Korea, Australia and Mexico.
This weekend's domestic forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Inferno (3,576 theaters) - $25.0 M
- Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (3,780 theaters) - $12.5 M
- Boo! A Madea Halloween (2,299 theaters) - $12.0 M
- The Accountant (3,402 theaters) - $7.9 M
- Ouija: Origin of Evil (3,168 theaters) - $7.0 M
- The Girl on the Train (2,753 theaters) - $4.0 M
- Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (2,797 theaters) - $3.5 M
- Keeping Up with the Joneses (3,022 theaters) - $3.2 M
- Storks (1,901 theaters) - $2.8 M
- Deepwater Horizon (2,054 theaters) - $1.8 M
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