Weekend Preview: 'Miss Peregrine', 'Deepwater Horizon' and 'Masterminds' Close Out September
by Brad Brevet
September 29, 2016
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Things are playing out relatively close to what was expected, albeit a little under expectations at the top which is where we find Fox's Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children bringing in an estimated $9 million on Friday, heading toward a three-day opening around $25-26 million.
Looking at a second place finish is Lionsgate's Deepwater Horizon, which brought in an estimated $7 million on Friday and is headed toward an opening around $19-20 million, which will be more than enough for a second place finish.
Relativity's Masterminds is right on track to match or possibly slightly exceed Mojo's forecasted $6.3 million opening after an estimated $2.3 million Friday.
Finally, Disney's expansion of Queen of Katwe isn't soaring quite as high as anticipated, bringing in an estimated $707,000 on Friday, heading toward a three-day weekend around $2.5 million or so.
You can check out all the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend wrap-up.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Thursday night preview results are rolling in and it was a great start for Fox's Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, which brought in $1.2 million from ~3,000 theaters. Fox is already comparing the result to The Maze Runner's $1.1 million Thursday night, which resulted in a $32.5 million opening weekend suggesting they definitely see a $30+ million weekend on the horizon.
For Lionsgate's Deepwater Horizon, the film brought in an estimated $860,000 from ~2,400 locations on Thursday night. Genre comparisons in this range are relatively limited, though Transcendence brought in $850k on Thursday and opened with $10.8 million and 13 Hours brought in $900k on Thursday and opened with $16.1 million.
We have not yet received results for Masterminds.
You can read our weekend preview below and we'll be back tomorrow morning with Friday estimates.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: When compared to last year, September 2016 has been a bit of a rough and tumble month. While there have been a pair of $30+ million openers, there have also been more than a fair share of disappointments. This weekend closes out the month with two new big budget releases in the form of Tim Burton's Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children and Peter Berg's Deepwater Horizon, both hoping to make a case for their price tag while the long-delayed ensemble comedy Masterminds finally hits theaters after enduring six release date changes over the past 18 months. Overall, the weekend is once again looking to underperform compared to the same weekend last year, which saw The Martian top the box office with $54 million.
At the top, Tim Burton returns to work at Fox for the first time since 2001's Planet of the Apes remake and he does so with Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, an adaptation of Ransom Riggs' bestselling novel starring Eva Green, Asa Butterfield, Chris O'Dowd, Allison Janney, Rupert Everett, Terence Stamp, Ella Purnell, Judi Dench and Samuel L. Jackson. The film carries a budget of $110 million and the studio is forecasting an opening weekend around $25 million from 3,522 theaters, which at this point seems like a reasonable estimation, though it's beginning to look more and more like this one could bump up against $30 million if not higher.
Online ticket seller Fandango.com reports Miss Peregrine is currently pacing ahead of both The Maze Runner and its 2015 sequel at the same point in Fandango's sales cycle. Looking to IMDb page view data for comparable titles shows support for an opening range of $25-29 million as Peregrine is trending ahead of Goosebumps and a bit behind Ender's Game. A good bet is to expect an opening right around $28 million with a possibility of it opening higher. Reviews on RottenTomatoes have been relatively mixed with the film holding a 61% rating at this time, which is actually a dramatic improvement over Burton's Dark Shadows, which had a 37% rating and yet opened with $29.6 million back in May 2012.
For Lionsgate's Deepwater Horizon, with which director Peter Berg reteams with his Lone Survivor star Mark Wahlberg to dramatize the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill, the film carries a reported $110 million budget* and early expectations are for an opening around $18 million from 3,252 theaters. Fandango reports the film is outpacing Wahlberg's 2 Guns and The Finest Hours, neither comparison telling us much, though IMDb page view data shows it trending similar to Bridge of Spies and tousling back-and-forth with Captain Phillips, which supports an opening weekend range that could be as low as $16 million or perhaps as high as $25 million. With the film currently at 80% on RottenTomatoes and rather strong word-of-mouth since its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, we're forecasting a $22 million debut.
Should Deepwater Horizon fail to reach that high it could find itself in a battle for second position with The Magnificent Seven, which topped the weekend last week with $34.7 million and, based on dailies is looking to drop around 51% or so this weekend for a three-day right around $17 million.
In fourth will be Warner's animated feature Storks, which failed to soar too high last weekend and should drop around 41% this weekend for a three-day around $12.5 million.
In fifth we find the highest grossing release of September in WB's Sully, which will carry around $96 million into the weekend and top $100 million probably some time on Saturday. After dropping only 37.5% last weekend, Sully is losing just 238 theaters this weekend, but the release of Deepwater Horizon is likely to steal a bit of Sully's potential fourth weekend audience. We're expecting a drop around 37% and a three-day around $8.5 million.
Likely to finish outside the top five we find Relativity's latest release after the studio suffered a bit of a blow with the aptly titled The Disappointments Room three weeks ago. The thriller starring Kate Beckinsale debuted in over 1,500 theaters and could only muster $1.4 million in its opening weekend and is crawling toward $2.4 million after 20 days in theaters. This weekend Relativity appears to have something of a better hand to play in the form of the ensemble comedy Masterminds, but having jumped around the release calendar for as long as it has never bodes well.
The film features a strong comedic cast including Zach Galifianakis, Kristen Wiig and Jason Sudeikis, but the first trailer premiered back in March 2015 when the film was targeting an August release. Over a year later and Relativity is making a stronger bid with Masterminds than it did with Disappointments Room, premiering the film in 3,042 theaters with industry forecasts expecting a weekend around $10 million, though that may be aiming a bit too high as we're expecting something in the range of $6-7 million. That is, unless producer Ryan Kavanaugh's Twitter promise that $100,000 will be dropped from a helicopter over an audience in line to see Masterminds this weekend actually brings out a few more moviegoers because the 37% rating at RottenTomatoes isn't likely to help.
Also this weekend, Disney will expand the reach of Mira Nair's Queen of Katwe from the 52 theaters it opened in last weekend to 1,242 theaters this weekend. Last weekend the film brought in $304,933 from those 52 theaters and received an "A+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences as well as holds a 92% on RottenTomatoes. All things considered, this weekend it's expected to bring in somewhere around $4-5 million, resulting in a top ten finish.
In limited release this weekend A24 will bring the much talked about American Honey to four theaters; Freestyle will release Clinton, Inc. into 20 theaters; Bleecker Street is debuting Denial in five theaters; and Music Box is releasing A Man Called Ove.
Finally, Fox International is releasing M.S. Dhoni: The Untold Story into 260 theaters, which is one to keep an eye on as it has been trending well compared to competitive titles on IMDb, but at a reported 190 minutes long how many screenings can they fit into a weekend?
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (3,522 theaters) - $28.0 M
- Deepwater Horizon (3,259 theaters) - $22.0 M
- The Magnificent Seven (3,674 theaters) - $17.0 M
- Storks (3,922 theaters) - $12.6 M
- Sully (3,717 theaters) - $8.5 M
- Masterminds (3,042 theaters) - $6.3 M
- Queen of Katwe (1,242 theaters) - $4.0 M
- Bridget Jones's Baby (2,050 theaters) - $2.4 M
- Don't Breathe (1,653 theaters) - $2.1 M
- Snowden (1,821 theaters) - $2.1 M
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* Previously reported budget of $156 million for Deepwater Horizon has been updated based on new, reported information.