Weekend Forecast: 'Jason Bourne', 'Bad Moms' and 'Nerve' Hit Theaters
by Brad Brevet
July 28, 2016
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Universal's Jason Bourne is coming out strong, delivering an estimated $22.7 million on Friday and heading toward a $60+ million opening weekend. This puts it ahead of Mojo's forecast and the "A-" CinemaScore answers whether or not opening day audiences would show it the support that would allow it to improve on expectations.
Internationally Jason Bourne debuted in 46 international markets and grossed an estimated $22.8 million, the largest international opening day for the Bourne franchise ever. The film is expected to top out around $50 million for the international weekend, resulting in a $110+ million worldwide opening.
Speaking of CinemaScore and improving on expectations, STX's Bad Moms earned an "A" CinemaScore to go along with an estimated $9.6 million opening day, heading toward a $27-30 million weekend. Many are beginning to wonder if this one could have legs similar to 2011's Bridesmaids, which opened with $26.2 million and went on to gross over $169 million domestically.
Lionsgate's Nerve brought in an estimated $3.2 million on Friday and is looking at a weekend around $10-11 million.
The biggest story of the weekend, however, is looking like it will be a dramatic second weekend drop for Star Trek Beyond. After an estimated $6.7 million Friday it looks like the third film in the rebooted franchise will deliver only a $23 million second weekend, a 61% drop from its opening weekend.
You can check out the full chart of Friday estimates here and we will be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend wrap-up.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Universal's Jason Bourne delivered solid numbers from Thursday night preview screenings, tallying $4.238 million from 2,928 theaters with screenings beginning at 7PM. Comparable results include the $4 million both Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and The Wolverine brought in before opening with $55.5 million and $53.1 million respectively. There's no comparing to the previous three Bourne films, all of which had preview screenings that began at midnight, none of which topped $1 million.
As for Bad Moms, the R-rated comedy from STX brought in $2.05 million from 2,550 locations on Thursday that began at 6PM and includes a small amount of ticket sales generated from group sales on Wednesday night. This is a strong start for the comedy, comparing favorably to the $1.8 million Trainwreck brought in on Thursday before opening with $30 million and the $1.5 million Spy brought in from advanced screenings before opening with $29 million.
Lionsgate's Nerve brought in an estimated $2.3 million yesterday, it's second day in release. The result continues the performance comparison made in our preview below to Vacation as the film has now brought in an estimated $6.05 million and is looking at a three-day anywhere from $12.5-14.5 million.
We'll be updating this article tomorrow with Friday estimates, just below is our complete weekend preview and forecast.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Star Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass return to the Bourne franchise after a nine year, one film hiatus as Jason Bourne is looking at a #1 finish as it debuts in over 4,000 theaters this weekend. The weekend also features the R-rated comedy Bad Moms and Nerve, a PG-13, teen-targeted thriller that opened on Wednesday with $3.75 million and hopes to find an audience over the weekend as a piece of counter-counter-programming.
Looking at a comfortable first place finish is Universal's Jason Bourne, the fifth film in the Bourne franchise and fourth starring Damon in the title role following the lackluster response to 2012's The Bourne Legacy starring Jeremy Renner. That said, this should be looked at more as a sequel to The Bourne Ultimatum, which opened with $69.2 million in August 2007. Of course, this year has not been kind to the majority of sequels. Following last weekend's opening for Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age: Collision Course, both of which followed this year's trend in which sequels underperform based on their predecessor, look for Jason Bourne to play below the opening weekend of Ultimatum.
On average, 2016's sequels are opening 14.5% below their predecessor (excluding My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2). Using that number, Jason Bourne would be looking at a three-day opening around $59 million, an entirely reasonable expectation given the excitement surrounding the release, but let's look a little deeper.
Online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports sales for Jason Bourne are outpacing sales for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which opened with $55.5 million over the same weekend last year. A look at IMDb traffic data shows a similar performance compared to Rogue Nation suggesting $54 million is a safe expectation for the three-day. Whether it pops any higher will depend a lot on opening day audience response as the tepid critical response is unlikely to get fans excited to see it anymore than they already are.
Beyond domestic, the other question is to wonder how will the film will perform internationally where it is opening day-and-day with the U.S. in 46 markets, including Australia, Brazil, Korea, Spain and the U.K. & Ireland. The first three Bourne films showed significant growth overseas, beginning with 2002's The Bourne Identity bringing in $92 million internationally leading to Ultimatum hauling in over $215 million overseas five years later. However, The Bourne Legacy took a step backward with $162.9 million. Are international audiences still paying attention? Do they still care?
One big difference will be the roll-out. Ultimatum didn't reach 45+ territories until its sixth week in release and it took Legacy five weeks before it was playing in front of that large a global audience, proving just how much different the global theatrical landscape is now compared to just four years ago.
Meanwhile, competing for many of the same eyeballs, Star Trek Beyond is hoping to maintain some kind of a foothold at the box office this weekend. The previous two Trek films dropped 42.8% and 46.9% in their second weekends. Star Trek Into Darkness had the slightly steeper drop, mostly due to the fact it opened on a Thursday. Beyond seems to have played well with audiences as well as critics, though the $59 million opening does suggest Trek may not be a top priority for most audiences, at least not when it comes to a blockbuster with a $185 million budget. That said, look for this one to dip a little sharper, perhaps around 49% or so, enough for a second place finish and a second weekend right around $30 million.
The big question is to wonder if that will be enough for second place or will Bad Moms deliver an R-rated smash hit? STX is releasing the comedy in 3,215 theaters and expecting an opening north of $20 million while Fandango.com reports advanced ticket sales are outpacing the sales for last year's female-led comedies, Trainwreck and Spy, which opened with $30 million and $29 million respectively. Can Bad Moms climb so high as to turn in a $30+ million opening?
Making it difficult to predict such an opening is the star power both Spy and Trainwreck had with stars Melissa McCarthy and Amy Schumer. However, while Bad Moms may not have individual star power of that caliber the overall ensemble packs a punch as it features Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Christina Applegate, Kathryn Hahn, Annie Mumolo and Jada Pinkett Smith. Marketing for the film has also shown strong interest on IMDb with the red band trailer in early May generating a significant awareness bump and the same for the exclusive trailer commentary a few weeks ago. Outside of the target demographic of 17+ females the film is also showing traction with males 17-34. All things considered, a $24+ million weekend seems like a safe bet while expecting an opening over $30 million is a little more risky, though not impossible.
As for Nerve, which stars Emma Roberts and Dave Franco, coming up with competitive titles is not easy considering we're talking about a teen-targeted thriller that opened on a Wednesday in late July. The best comparison that can be made given the summer release and Wednesday opening is last year's Vacation, which brought in $1.2 million on Tuesday night and $3.8 million on Wednesday before going on to bring in $14.6 million over the three-day weekend. Nerve brought in $1.06 million from Tuesday night previews from 1,785 theaters and expanded into 2,538 theaters on Wednesday, bringing in $3.75 million (including Tuesday previews), which might suggest a weekend right around $13-14 million if we're doing a direct comparison. Problem is Nerve is playing in 873 fewer theaters than Vacation opened in, which could take that three-day down to $12 million or thereabouts.
This means Nerve could be looking to finish just outside of the top five, if not in a fight for fifth with The Secret Life of Pets and Ice Age: Collision Course looking like fourth and fifth place finishers respectively.
Pets dropped only 41.8% last weekend and another drop right around 40% should be expected. However, forecasting how Ice Age will perform in its second weekend isn't quite as easy. Ice Age: Continental Drift dropped 56.2% in its second weekend back in 2012, but it also opened with $46.6 million compared to Collision Course's paltry $21.34 million opening. This gives Collision Course less room to fall, which could mean a drop around 39% or so, but that only means we're looking at a $12.5 million sophomore session.
Elsewhere, Lionsgate will continue the expansion of Woody Allen's Cafe Society, this time into 565 theaters (+515). Last weekend the film delivered just shy of $850k from 50 theaters, but the last few years haven't been kind to Allen's films as they continued their expansion. Cafe Society, however, has been showing a little more promise when compared to Irrational Man and Magic in the Moonlight. A weekend in the $1.5-2 million range wouldn't be the least bit surprising.
The weekend's limited releases include League of Gods starring Jet Li, Tony Leung and Bingbing Fan which Sony will release in 54 theaters domestically while it is set to top the charts in China this weekend.
Meanwhile, Sony Classics will premiere Equity in four theaters, Open Road will debut Gleason, Roadside is releasing Indignation, Dimension will release Viral into 11 theaters and A24 will release Into the Forest into 15 theaters.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Jason Bourne (4,026 theaters) - $54 M
- Star Trek Beyond (3,928 theaters) - $30 M
- Bad Moms (3,215 theaters) - $25 M
- The Secret Life of Pets (3,673 theaters) - $17.8 M
- Ice Age: Collision Course (3,997 theaters) - $13 M
- Nerve (2,538 theaters) - $12.5 M
- Lights Out (2,835 theaters) - $10.4 M
- Ghostbusters (3,052 theaters) - $10.3 M
- Finding Dory (1,733 theaters) - $4.4 M
- The Legend of Tarzan (1,503 theaters) - $3.2 M
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