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'X-Men' & 'Alice' Lead Soft Memorial Day Weekend; Disney Tops $4 Billion Worldwide

by Brad Brevet
 

 
May 29, 2016

Monday AM Update: Estimates for the four-day holiday weekend are in and X-Men: Apocalypse appears to be right on track to hit pre-weekend expectations. The studio is reporting an estimated $80 million four-day holiday weekend, placing the film atop the weekend chart. For Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass things only continue to look worse as the film's three-day estimate dropped from $18.1 million yesterday to $26.9 million today with the studio now anticipating a $34.1 million four-day weekend, well off the $60 million tracking the film was targeting heading into the weekend.

You can browse the complete four and three-day estimates right here and we'll update our charts with weekend actuals on Tuesday afternoon. Yesterday's look at the three-day estimates follows below.

Three-day Memorial Day weekend results are in and while the numbers at the top are soft compared to franchise predecessors, the weekend was an overall improvement compared to 2015 when Memorial Day took place one week earlier. X-Men: Apocalypse led the weekend charge, matching the studio's expectations, followed by Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass, which fell well short of what the studio was hoping for. That said, Disney's coffers aren't exactly barren as the studio is expected to pass $4 billion at the global box office by the end of the day as three of its films currently rank as the highest grossing worldwide releases of 2016.

Beginning with the weekend #1, X-Men: Apocalypse brought in an estimated $65 million three-day and is looking at anything from $77-80 million for the four-day holiday. The result is pretty much what the studio was anticipating heading into the weekend, but still has to be looked at as something of a disappointment. The four-day total is approximately $30 million less than 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past with a three-day that ranks sixth when compared to the rest of the films in the X-Men franchise.

Looking ahead, outside of X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Apocalypse received the worst RottenTomatoes score compared to any film in the X-Men franchise. However, opening day audiences seemed to like it well enough, scoring it with an "A-" CinemaScore, which is just below Days of Future Past's "A" and ahead of the "B+" for X-Men: First Class. In fact, First Class is a solid comparison domestically as it opened with $55.1 million back in 2011 and went on to gross $145.4 million domestically and just over $200 million internationally.

Speaking of international results Apocalypse is already encroaching on First Class' overseas total as the film brought in another $55.3 million this weekend from 79 markets, bringing its international cume to $185.8 million. The film added four territories this weekend, most notably South Korea where it finished #1 in the market with an estimated $12 million. The film retained its #1 position from last weekend in Brazil where it dropped only 17% as well as in the UK and Australia. Apocalypse arrives in China, where First Class was not even released and Days of Future Past brought in $116 million, on June 3 and won't be released in Japan until August 11.

Securing a second place finish is Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass, which brought in an estimated $28.1 million for the three day and is expected to post a $35+ million four-day total. Reviews for the film were brutal and the four-day performance is approximately $25 million less than tracking suggested and $17 million less than Mojo's weekend predictions.

In attempting to figure just how much of a miss Looking Glass is for the studio, it would have been unreasonable to expect a repeat performance of 2010's Alice in Wonderland as it landed in the sweet spot of 3D and visual effects. This becomes even more evident once you consider 59% of the opening weekend audience saw Looking Glass in 2D despite more than 82% of the film's 3,763 opening weekend theaters premiered the film in 3D.

That said, the best comparison for Alice isn't exactly a flattering one as last year's $190 million disappointment Tomorrowland comes to the forefront. Tomorrowland brought in $42.6 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend before going on to finish with $93.4 million domestically. Alice should finish with $90-100 million domestically if not a bit more, but given the $170 million budget, and the success Disney has seen with its live-action fairy tale features as of late, this isn't the result the studio was hoping for.

Internationally, Alice brought in an estimated $65 million as it opened day and date across 72% of the international market. The top performing market was China where the film brought in an estimated $27.1 million followed by Mexico ($5.0m), Russia ($4.6m), Brazil ($4.1m), UK ($3.2m), Germany ($2.5m), Australia ($2.4m), Italy ($2.2m), Spain ($1.6m) and Argentina ($1.6M). It still has yet to open in France (June 1), Japan (July 1) and Korea (Sept. 8).

In its second weekend, Sony's The Angry Birds Movie dropped 51% for an estimated $18.7 million three-day with the studio expecting a Monday bump and a four-day total to rise to $24.5 million. Angry Birds also brought in $31.8 million internationally this weekend as its international cume now sits at $157.2 million with a global gross-to-date of $223.5 million.

Disney's Captain America: Civil War took fourth position with an estimated $15.1 million three-day and an anticipated $19.4 million four-day weekend. Universal's Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising rounded out the top five though it dropped a steep 58.2% for an estimated $9.1 million three-day and an anticipated $11.19 million four-day.

One bright spot in this weekend's top ten is Amazon and Roadside's Love & Friendship, which expanded into 493 theaters (+446) and brought in an estimated $2.49 million. The film will continue to expand next weekend as it continues to take advantage of strong word of mouth and a 99% rating on RottenTomatoes.

Rounding out the top ten is Disney's fourth film in release and fourth film in the top ten, that being Zootopia, which crossed $335 million domestically this weekend and has now made over $990 million globally to become the 26th highest grossing worldwide release of all-time.

As a brief aside, some may have also noticed Zootopia passed The Lion King at the worldwide box office recently while also noticing The Lion King's international total on BoxOfficeMojo declined $19 million on Thursday afternoon. This came as a result of a correction issued by Disney to BoxOfficeMojo, alerting us the original release of The Lion King made $450.6 million internationally, an additional $3.8 million with the 2002 IMAX reissue, and another $91.3 million from 2011's 3D reissue for an international total of $545.7 million. As a result, The Lion King now ranks 29th on Mojo's all-time worldwide chart with $968.5 million.

Elsewhere in the international marketplace, Universal released Warcraft in twenty territories this past weekend where it finished #1 in 19 of them with an estimated $31.6 million. Russia delivered the largest result where the film brought in an estimated $10 million followed by Germany ($5.9m) and Sweden ($1.2m) along with number one openings in Austria, Denmark, Egypt, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Latvia, Lebanon, Middle East, Norway, Pakistan, Slovenia, Switzerland, Thailand and United Arab Emirates. Next weekend, it opens in Belgium, Brazil, Italy, Netherlands, Serbia and Montenegro, Spain and the U.K. and Ireland. The film doesn't hit US theaters until June 10.

As far as next weekend's domestic releases are concerned, the widest new release will be Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows arriving in 3,800+ theaters followed by Warner's romantic drama Me Before You in 2,500+ theaters and Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping in 2,200 theaters.

You can browse the weekend's three-day estimates right here and we will have updated estimates along with four-day holiday estimates tomorrow morning followed by weekend actuals on Tuesday afternoon.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo and author Brad Brevet at @bradbrevet.



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