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Update: 'Jungle Book' #1 Over Newcomers; 'Captain America: Civil War' Up To $84M Internationally

by Brad Brevet
 

 
April 28, 2016

Saturday AM Update #2: A big focus this weekend is also on Captain America: Civil War, which opened yesterday in an additional 8 international markets to take the total number opened to date to 38 territories. The film continues to place at #1 in all markets as its three-day total is now $84 million, tracking on par with Avengers: Age of Ultron in the same suite of markets.

New releases in key markets include $7.3 million in Mexico, #1 industry opening day of all-time beating Ultron's previous record. In the UK the film opened #1 with $7 million, +33% ahead of Ultron and more than double Iron Man 3. In Japan it brought in $2.8 million, more than double Iron Man 3 and not comparable to Ultron, which opened on a Saturday. South Korea, which opened on Wednesday, is leading the way with $12.6 million so far.

For a breakdown on all territories Disney has reported so far click here.

Saturday AM Update #1: The Jungle Book is well on its way to a third weekend at #1 as it took in an estimated $10.25 million on Friday and should finish the weekend around $39 million if not more. Internationally the film is now up to $386 million, which brings its worldwide cume to $605.9 million, placing it just outside the top 100 all-time.

Finishing in second is WB's Keanu with an estimated $3.4 million, which seems likely to result in an opening around $9-10 million. Right behind it is Open Road's Mother's Day with an estimated $2.78 million and what is looking like a $7-8 million weekend.

The last of the weekend's newcomers is the animated video game adaptation Ratchet & Clank, which brought in an estimated $1.48 million, looking at a three-day opening around $5.5 million.

Stay tuned, we'll have a complete weekend wrap up tomorrow morning, but for now you can check the Friday estimates right here.

Friday AM Update #2: Captain America: Civil War's international roll out continues as it added an additional 15 international markets yesterday bringing the total to 30, spread across all three regions. After two days in release the film is now up to $38.7 million as it heads into theaters in Spain, the UK, Japan, Mexico, Iceland, Venezuela, Paraguay and Ecuador today.

Civil War hits domestic theaters next weekend along with theaters in Italy, Russia, China and Argentina.

Friday AM Update: Key & Peele's Keanu brought in $560,000 from Thursday night previews. The number doesn't really tell us much about how the film will ultimately perform this weekend, but for the sake of comparison here's a selection of R-rated comedies within that range and their Thursday night and subsequent weekend performance:

  • The Brothers Grimsby - $235,000 Thursday / $3.25 Opening Weekend
  • Identity Thief - $409,000 Thursday / $34.5 Opening Weekend
  • American Ultra - $425,000 Thursday / $5.45 Opening Weekend
  • Dirty Grandpa - $660,000 Thursday / $11.1 Opening Weekend
  • How to Be Single - $700,000 Thursday / $17.8 Opening Weekend

Open Road's Mother's Day brought in $225,000. By comparison, Ricki and the Flash brought in $200,000 before opening with $6.6 million, though it was opening in just over half of the number of theaters Mother's Day is playing in this weekend.

Weekend Preview: Three new releases hit theaters this weekend as the "official" start of the summer movie season is now just one week away. This year, however, has had more than its share of box office blockbusters ahead of the summer movie season with three films already topping $300 million domestically and a fourth well on its way to doing that same. The fourth film is, of course, Disney's The Jungle Book, which will be unfazed by this week's new offerings as it will maintain the #1 position at the box office for a third straight week in a row.

Said new titles vying for a position in the top ten include Warner's comedy Keanu, Open Road's Mother's Day and Gramercy's animated release Ratchet & Clank. Meanwhile, Captain America: Civil War began its international debut just yesterday and is off to a great start, banking $14.9 million from 15 territories, just behind the performance of Avengers: Age of Ultron last year.

As already mentioned, Disney's The Jungle Book is heading toward a third straight weekend atop the box office. After dropping a mere 40.4% last weekend (37.9% if you don't take into account Thursday previews) this weekend should see an even smaller drop, likely around 35% or better for a $40+ million third weekend haul.

Second place is where it looks as if we'll find the first of the weekend's newcomers with Keanu, from Comedy Central stars Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key. Opening in 2,658 theaters this is a tough title to forecast as it has the outward appearance of being akin to "Saturday Night Live" features, which most recently saw MacGruber open with $4 million back in 2010. Key & Peele's cultural impact and place among the current zeitgeist, however, is far more significant than what MacGruber was tapping into in 2010.

Keanu first screened at the SXSW Film Festival in mid-March to a, mostly, positive response. Majority opinion since then has largely remained the same, resulting in an 81% RottenTomatoes score as of press time. That said, it comes down very much to the film's marketing and audience awareness.

The fact Keanu is an R-rated comedy may hurt its chances of climbing too high on the charts and industry sources place its opening around $9-10 million for the weekend. Looking a little higher, one number to consider is the $14.9 million Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay opened with in late April of 2008 from 2,510 theaters. This, of course, only muddies the water further, giving us a weekend range that could be as low as $9 million, but, if the stars align, could finish as high as $18 million. It's a wide range, but it's not an easy title to predict and the weekend's other two new releases aren't much easier.

Open Road's Mother's Day doesn't appear to be gaining much traction despite its large ensemble cast, which includes Jennifer Aniston, Kate Hudson, Julia Roberts, Julia Roberts' wig, Jason Sudeikis, Britt Robertson and Timothy Olyphant. It's the latest in a trio of films from director Garry Marshall that take a holiday, make it a movie title, put together a large cast and hope for the best. Unfortunately, the trend from 2010's Valentine's Day ($56.2m opening) to 2011's New Year's Eve ($13m opening) isn't in the right direction and it appears Mother's Day will follow suit.

Opening in 3,035 theaters, Mother's Day is looking at an opening around $7-10 million and it looks like Gramercy's Ratchet & Clank won't be fairing much better.

Ratchet & Clank is based on the video game franchise, which began in 2002 and saw its most recent release hit shelves on April 12th, obviously hoping to both take advantage of the film's release and to hype the film itself. It doesn't appear to have had much of an impact. Opening in 2,891 theaters, industry expectations currently peg the weekend take to be in the high single digits million range. That seems like a ceiling for this title with an opening closer to $5-6 million more likely as Zootopia is still the talk of the town in terms of animation and may in fact beat Ratchet & Clank in what will be the film's ninth weekend.

Finally, Focus World will bring Term Life, starring Vince Vaughn, Hailee Steinfeld, Terrence Howard and Taraji P. Henson, to 50 theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. We'll have Thursday preview numbers tomorrow morning, Friday estimates on Saturday morning and a complete weekend wrap-up on Sunday.

  • The Jungle Book (4,041 theaters) - $40.12 M
  • Keanu (2,658 theaters) - $11.56 M
  • The Huntsman: Winter's War (3,802 theaters) - $8.95 M
  • Mother's Day (3,035 theaters) - $7.59 M
  • Barbershop: The Next Cut (2,676 theaters) - $5.95 M
  • Ratchet & Clank (2,891 theaters) - $5.49 M
  • Zootopia (2,487 theaters) - $5.13 M
  • The Boss (2,818 theaters) - $3.67 M
  • Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (3,066 theaters) - $3.19 M
  • Criminal (1,578 theaters) - $1.42 M

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo and author Brad Brevet at @bradbrevet.



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