Updated: 'Jungle Book' and 'Barbershop 3' Seek Strong Opening Weekends
by Brad Brevet
April 14, 2016
Saturday AM Update: Friday estimates are in and The Jungle Book is roaring to life with an estimated $32.4 million opening day. The film is now pushing toward a $90+ million opening, which would be enough for the third largest April opening weekend of all-time, challenging Captain America: The Winter Soldier's $95 million from 2014 for second place on that list.
WB and MGM's Barbershop: The Next Cut is looking like it won't be able to hit Mojo's lofty prediction after taking an estimated $7 million on Friday. At this point an opening around $20-21 million seems most likely.
Lionsgate's Criminal opened with an estimated $2 million and is looking at a $6 million opening.
For a complete look at Friday's estimates click here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete wrap up of the weekend.
Friday AM Update: Disney's The Jungle Book got off to a wonderful start on Thursday night, bringing in $4.2 million from early preview screenings. This matches the preview number for Maleficent from 2014, betters the $2 million Oz the Great and Powerful brought in before opening with $79.1 million and is just above the $4.1 million Dawn of the Planet of the Apes brought in before opening with $72.6 million in July 2014. Additionally, just last month Zootopia brought in $1.7 million on Thursday night before its $75 million opening.
Barbershop: The Next Cut kicked off its weekend with $735,000 from Thursday previews, $525,000 short of what Ride Along 2 pulled in earlier this year. Barbershop 3's number, however, is an improvement on the $689,000 The Best Man Holiday tallied in Thursday previews back in November 2013.
Finally, Lionsgate's Criminal got the weekend started with $235,000 from around 1,900 locations. This is a number that's too low to really give us any indication of just how well this film may do, but it is just a shade above the $220,000 The Gunman brought in last March before opening with $5 million.
Weekend Preview: Last weekend the top twelve at the domestic box office was down 24.3% when compared to last year. In fact, it was the first time since 2008 that the top twelve films at the box office failed to top $100 million in the 15th weekend of the year. This weekend won't have any such issues with Disney's The Jungle Book looking to become one of the top five April openings of all-time. Additionally, Warners' Barbershop: The Next Cut should deliver the largest opening that franchise has seen while Lionsgate's Criminal will likely finish just outside the top five.
Disney has tapped into something special when it comes to adapting some of their most iconic animated movies into live action features in recent years. Last year's Cinderella opened with $67.8 million in mid-March, the year before Maleficent opened with $69.4 million and, in 2010, Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland opened with an astonishing $116.1 million before grossing over $1 billion worldwide.
This weekend, Disney has gone big again. Budgeted at a reported $175 million, Jon Favreau's The Jungle Book should easily top $70 million and just might breeze by $80 million as it currently holds a stellar, 94% rating on RottenTomatoes as of press time and ranks sixth on IMDb's MOVIEMeter (fourth among film titles only), just behind Captain America: Civil War. Disney is releasing the film in 4,028 theaters, over 75% of which will show the film in 3D, including 376 IMAX screens, 463 PLF and 145 D-Box locations.
The Jungle Book will begin screening tonight at 7 PM, which should help provide some context for weekend expectation come Friday morning. As a basis for comparison, Cinderella brought in $2.3 million from Thursday night previews, Alice in Wonderland delivered $3.9 million and Maleficent saw $4.2 million. The studio isn't going too aggressive with expectations, targeting a mid-to-high $60 million opening while industry chatter pegs this one much closer to $75+ million as expectations have been steadily climbing over the past couple of weeks. The film began its international run last weekend with $28.9 million and expands to what amounts to 63% of all international territories this weekend, including France, Germany, Italy, Brazil, UK, Spain, China and Mexico.
Expected to finish strong in second place is WB and MGM's Barbershop: The Next Cut. After two previous films in the Barbershop franchise as well as the female-driven spin-off Beauty Shop, this fourth film in the Barbershop Cinematic Universe arrives 11 years after the last installment and director Malcolm D. Lee has a stacked cast to work with. Ice Cube returns in the lead role along with Cedric the Entertainer, Regina Hall, Anthony Anderson, Eve, JB Smoove, Common and Nicki Minaj and the film may be looking to compete with Lee's largest opener to date, 2013's The Best Man Holiday, which opened with $30.1 million.
Barbershop 2: Back in Business opened with $24.2 million back in 2004 and given the film's star power and franchise connections, that would seem to be the low bar in terms of expectation this weekend. On the higher end, anything over $30 million would not be surprising and its current 88% rating on RottenTomatoes is a 20-point improvement over the second film and a six-point improvement on the 2002 original.
The last of the weekend's new wide releases is Criminal from Lionsgate, featuring the stars of two of 2016's biggest films yet—Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool) and Gal Gadot (Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice)—as well as Kevin Costner, Alice Eve, Gary Oldman and Tommy Lee Jones. Unfortunately, the film is being swallowed up by all the higher profile releases around it and the reviews (14% on RT) aren't inspiring. Criminal is opening in over 2,600 theaters and a weekend around $6-8 million seems most likely.
In attempting to determine the second weekend performance for Melissa McCarthy's The Boss we'll first look to Tammy (which we should note opened on a Wednesday). A comparison of the two film's daily performances following opening weekend gives the performance edge to Tammy, suggesting The Boss could suffer a larger drop than Tammy's 41.8% second weekend dip. Then again, the target demographic might not be able to get away as easily during the week in April as they can during the summer months. In that case, a better comparison from a performance standpoint might be Identity Thief, which, like The Boss, was an early year release, and played similarly during the week leading up to a strong second weekend hold, dropping only 31.5% after a $34.5 million opening. The Boss isn't likely to hold that well, but it does provide a little perspective as a second weekend around $12-13 million seems a safe bet.
Looking at a fourth place finish, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is losing 597 theaters this weekend and will probably drop somewhere around 50% after it recently passed $300 million domestically and is just shy of $500 million internationally as of Wednesday, April 13. And Disney's Zootopia should round out the top five with a drop in the low 30s for a seventh weekend around $9-10 million.
Elsewhere, A24 will be releasing Green Room in a limited number of theaters before going nationwide in a couple weeks. The Weinstein Co. is releasing Sing Street into five theaters and Yash Raj will release Fan into 275 theaters. Finally, Everybody Wants Some!! is adding another 71 theaters in 14 new markets.
You can see Mojo's weekend forecast below and stay tuned as we'll have Thursday night preview numbers for you tomorrow morning as well as Friday estimates on Saturday morning followed by a complete weekend wrap-up on Sunday.
- The Jungle Book (2016) (4,028 theaters) - $78.75 M
- Barbershop: The Next Cut (2,661 theaters) - $29.27 M
- The Boss (3,495 theaters) - $13.21 M
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (3,505 theaters) - $11.45 M
- Zootopia (3,209 theaters) - $9.76 M
- Criminal (2016) (2,683 theaters) - $6.98 M
- My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (2,290 theaters) - $3.82 M
- Miracles from Heaven (2,082 theaters) - $3.01 M
- Hardcore Henry (3,015 theaters) - $2.69 M
- God's Not Dead 2 (1,585 theaters) - $2.15 M
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