'Gods of Egypt', 'Triple 9' & 'Eddie the Eagle' Hit Theaters While 'Deadpool' Threepeats
by Brad Brevet
February 25, 2016
Saturday Update: Deadpool will be the clear Oscar weekend champion and it isn't even much of a contest. With an estimated $8.9 million on Friday it is looking to clear north of $30 million for the weekend for a drop somewhere around 42%. An amazing result as it will have likely topped $285 million domestically by Sunday evening. As for the newcomers, well, it isn't a pretty picture.
Gods of Egypt is performing as expected, opening with an estimated $4.7 million and likely to finish the weekend around $13 million. Triple 9 was thought to have a potential to hit $10 million, but it's going to struggle to hit even $6 million as it brought in an estimated $2.1 million on Friday. Triple 9 did manage to finish ahead of fellow newcomer Eddie the Eagle on Friday as Fox's family film brought in an estimated $1.9 million, but Eddie may even finish ahead of the corrupt cop, heist thriller.
You can see the complete Friday estimates here and we'll have a complete weekend wrap-up for you tomorrow morning.
Friday Update: Gods of Egypt started its weekend with an estimated $800,000 from Thursday night previews from 2,300 locations. This is in the same range as films such as Chappie ($750k), Transcendence ($850k) and Crimson Peak ($855k), which opened in a range from $10.8 million to $13.9 million. While Thursday previews never paint a perfect picture of the weekend to come, these numbers are inside the anticipated wheelhouse for this film's weekend. One noteworthy outlier in this range is 2014's Into the Storm, which brought in $800,000 on Thursday and opened with $17.3 million.
Lionsgate does note that Gods of Egypt had a strong start in Latin America and opened #1 in Russia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines, based on early results.
Fox's Eddie the Eagle brought in $175,000 from Thursday previews. Comparatively, Ricki and the Flash brought in $200,000 from Thursday previews and opened with $6.6 million and last weekend's Race brought in $205,000 from Thursday previews and opened with $7.3 million. Race was one of our comparative titles in the following weekend preview and this Thursday start could prove indicative of what to expect for the weekend.
Weekend Preview: After crossing $500 million worldwide this week, Deadpool heads into its third weekend with sights set on another #1 finish as it will become one of the top five, highest grossing R-rated films of all-time. The weekend's new releases vying for a spot elsewhere in the weekend top ten include Lionsgate and Summit's Gods of Egypt, Open Road's Triple 9 and Fox's feel good feature Eddie the Eagle.
On the heels of a 57.4% drop last weekend, Deadpool should dip around 52% drop or so this weekend, give or take a few percentage points, for a third weekend anywhere from $26-29 million. By the end of the weekend, Deadpool will be approaching a $280 million domestic cume, soon moving ahead of The Matrix Reloaded to become the third highest grossing R-rated release of all-time.
Expected to finish second is Gods of Egypt, though this one is facing some serious scrutiny. Budgeted at a massive $140 million, midweek tracking had it opening somewhere around $15 million, yet much of the conversation surrounding the film has been negative. Talking points have focused on its extremely large budget, spaceships and the whitewashing of the film's cast. Add to that the negative early reviews, which are currently sitting at a 17% rating at RottenTomatoes as of press time, and it's looking more and more like a disaster.
Perhaps it will climb as high as $15 million, but an opening closer to $12 million seems like it's more in the cards for this production that just seems to have lost its way somewhere along the line. That said, if it does flop, star Gerard Butler will have a second chance at box office success in 2016 next weekend as the sequel London Has Fallen hits theaters.
Next is another new release in John Hillcoat's Triple 9, a corrupt cop, heist thriller with an all-star cast and moderately good reviews so far. The film opens in 2,205 theaters and a first weekend over $10 million seems likely if not a tick higher. That said, depending on audience reaction on Friday to both Triple 9 and Gods of Egypt, Triple 9 could find itself benefiting if early audiences end up agreeing with critics and perhaps pushing the film as high as $12 million.
Looking at a holdover from last weekend, Risen scored not only a strong opening weekend, but some noteworthy praise, including a Fox News headline that read, "It's a miracle! Hollywood finally tells a great Bible story." Following its $11.8 million opening last weekend, a drop somewhere around 24-26% seems incredibly likely for a second weekend, fourth place finish.
There could be a small battle for fifth place between Kung Fu Panda 3, which has continued to holdover quite well, and the weekend's final new wide release, Eddie the Eagle starring Taron Egerton (Kingsman: The Secret Service) and Hugh Jackman. The feel good feature, telling the story of Britain's Olympic ski jumper Eddie "The Eagle" Edwards, is opening in 2,042 theaters and has earned good reviews so far. There's no great basis for comparison, though last weekend's $7.3 million opening for Race doesn't seem entirely out of bounds. Jackman's star power could give the film a boost, but with Eddie playing in fewer theaters than Race last weekend an opening of $7+ million seems a safe bet.
Also of note is last weekend's new release of The Witch, which did score a "C-" CinemaScore, which typically signals a film isn't likely to holdover too well from week-to-week. However, the trend on that front is slowly shifting toward films not exhibiting such a large drop, which could be indicative of the increasing use of much more genre-specific targeted marketing. Perhaps the "C-" CinemaScore is more attributable to audiences outside of the intended target demographic as horror fans seem to be quite taken with The Witch. Traditionally, a drop somewhere around 53% or so would seem a safe bet, but this one could be looking to fair a bit better, dropping as little as 45% or so this weekend for a finish around $4.4-4.8 million.
Finally, a lot of eyes will be focused on that tenth spot at the weekend box office as the year's potential Best Picture winner The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens will both be competing for that last spot. The Revenant has the slight edge thanks to the awards attention leading into Sunday's Oscar ceremony as well as the edge in theater counts by just over 200 theaters. Both films look to finish anywhere from $2.6-3 million, but it's looking like this might be the first weekend Star Wars falls out of the top ten.
Films opening in limited release this weekend include Reliance Films' Tere Bin Laden - Dead or Alive in 54 theaters and IFC is releasing the documentary King Georges into two theaters.
Forecasts for this weekend's box office are directly below.
- Deadpool (3,856 theaters) - $27.1 M
- Gods of Egypt (3,117 theaters) - $12.87 M
- Triple 9 (2,205 theaters) - $10.91 M
- Risen (2,915 theaters) - $8.73 M
- Kung Fu Panda 3 (3,290 theaters) - $7.64 M
- Eddie the Eagle (2,042 theaters) - $7.15 M
- Race (2,387 theaters) - $4.78 M
- The Witch (2,204 theaters) - $4.66 M
- How to be Single (3,047 theaters) - $4.51 M
- The Revenant (1,638 theaters) - $2.71 M
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (1,433 theaters) - $2.63 M
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