Forecast: 'Spectre' and 'Peanuts' Hope for Strong Second Weekend Holds
by Brad Brevet
November 12, 2015
Spectre's $70.4 million opening last weekend was the seventh largest of 2015 and this weekend it faces little to no incoming competition. The week's new wide releases include the Chilean miner drama The 33, the Christmas-themed family feature Love the Coopers and the period, football drama My All American. Not one of these three new wide releases will be threatening the top two spots at the box office, which means the second weekend of Spectre and The Peanuts Movie draw the majority of our attention.
Starting with Spectre, the first instinct is to look to Skyfall's second weekend back in 2012. After a monster opening, Skyfall dropped 53.5% in the face of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2's $141 million opening weekend. Quantum of Solace dropped 60% when it faced off, and took second to, the first Twilight film back in 2008. Twilight, however, isn't exactly direct competition. Taking that into consideration, it would suggest those weekend drops are a good gauge as to how Spectre may perform this weekend.
Since its opening, Spectre has played well over the week, getting a nice 37% bump on Tuesday before heading into Veteran's Day where it saw an additional 8% increase. That midweek, holiday bump, however, could take a small chunk out of its weekend number. I'm expecting something in the range of a 57% drop for a $30.2 million second weekend before the big competition arrives next weekend in the form of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2.
Should my prediction for Spectre hold true, Bond could be risking a second place finish as 007 narrowly edged out The Peanuts Movie for #1 on Veteran's Day. The animated feature was well-received by audiences last weekend and took advantage of the midweek holiday, finishing only $148,389 out of first. I have the film facing a 35% second weekend drop and a $28.7 million finish, but a 31% drop would push it over my $30.2 million Spectre prediction.
Before we get into the week's new releases, this weekend's forecast has The Martian in third place with $5.9 million. Ridley Scott's film became the seventh 2015 release to cross the $200 million mark and over the last three weeks it hasn't seen a drop less than 26.1% making my 34% drop seem steep by comparison.
Finally getting to this weekend's new wide releases, the two most likely to compete for that third slot will be The 33 and Love the Coopers and both titles are difficult to forecast.
When it comes to The 33, it has been doing well in international release since August, bringing in over $12.6 million so far, including $4.9 million from Chile and $3 million from Mexico. The film doesn't, however, look like a typical studio play for this time of year. You'd typically expect this to be a limited, awards season release such as what Fox attempted with The Book Thief in 2013. From there the play would be to push the film wider once Oscar nominations are announced. The decision to release The 33 into 2,452 theaters right out of the gate could have something to do with the fact WB doesn't see much of an awards play here, and middling reviews seem to support that. So, expecting a three-day around $5.5 million seems about right.
It's also tough to predict what will happen with Love the Coopers. The most obvious comparison is 2014's This is Where I Leave You, but name recognition between the two casts puts Coopers at a disadvantage and early reviews aren't helping matters. Lionsgate and CBS Films will release the film in 2,603 theaters this weekend, but I'm not expecting anything more than $5.2 million with studio fingers crossed for a top five finish.
The last new wide release is Aviron's My All American. For those unfamiliar, Aviron is the new name for Clarius Entertainment, whose box office track record isn't exactly impressive. Hoping to turn over a new leaf with this release, they'll be bringing My All American into 1,565 theaters. Unfortunately, when it comes to forecasting this one, the obvious comparison is Woodlawn, another period-set football drama, which opened with $4 million only a month ago. Unless there's an audience clamoring for more films of this sort that I don't know about, my $1.7 million prediction almost feels generous.
The widest of the weekend's limited releases is Prem Ratan Dhan Payo releasing in 287 theaters followed by the more star-studded feature By the Sea. Angelina Jolie wrote, directed and stars in By the Sea alongside her husband, Brad Pitt, and Universal will be slow rolling the feature into ten theaters this weekend and expanding to 120 next weekend. The names Jolie and Pitt may bring in a few audience members, but the lukewarm reviews don't suggest a lengthy theatrical run.
Here are this week's predictions.
- Spectre (3,929 theaters) - $30,272,945
- The Peanuts Movie (3,902 theaters) - $28,738,230
- The Martian (2,788 theaters) - $5,988,624
- The 33 (2,452 theaters) - $5,517,000
- Love the Coopers (2,603 theaters) - $5,258,060
- Goosebumps (2,805 theaters) - $4,423,485
- Bridge of Spies (2,688 theaters) - $3,967,488
- Hotel Transylvania 2 (1,834 theaters) - $1,982,554
- My All American (1,565 theaters) - $1,721,500
- Burnt (1,614 theaters) - $1,501,020
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