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Holiday 2014 Forecast: 'The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies'

by Ray Subers
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
 

 
November 1, 2014

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The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Release Date: December 17th (3D & IMAX)
Studio: Warner Bros.
Genre: Fantasy
Director: Peter Jackson
Writers: Fran Walsh & Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson & Guillermo del Toro
Cast: Ian McKellen, Martin Freeman, Richard Armitrage, Evangeline Lilly, Luke Evans, Lee Pace, Benedict Cumberbatch, Cate Blanchett, Ian Holm, Christopher Lee, Hugo Weaving, Orlando Bloom
Studio Description: Bilbo and Company are forced to be embraced in a war against an armed flock of combatants and the terrifying Smaug from acquiring a kingdom of treasure and incinerating all of Middle-Earth.

Analysis: Peter Jackson's The Hobbit trilogy concludes this December with The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. Advertisements promise that this will be "the defining chapter" of the franchise, and fans of the Middle Earth saga are surely excited to see the titular battle portrayed on the big screen. Outside of hardcore fans, though, it doesn't seem like there's much excitement surrounding this finale.

The franchise is currently on a downward trajectory: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey earned 20 percent less than The Return of the King, while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was off 15 percent from An Unexpected Journey. The bleeding should slow down with The Battle of the Five Armies: Smaug was widely considered an improvement over its predecessor, and franchise finales tend to do pretty well.

Unlike the last two years, though, The Hobbit isn't the only major movie coming out this December. Noting the lukewarm reception of the first installment, other studios programmed some very competitive titles: Exodus: Gods and Kings, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and Into the Woods should all chip away at this movie's audience.

As a result, a modest decline seems to be in order (somewhere in the five to ten percent range). Ultimately, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies seems poised to be the lowest-grossing, least-attended entry in the six-movie Middle Earth saga.

Forecast:
$235 million

Similar Movies:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Snow White and the Huntsman, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, King Kong, Star Wars: Episode IIIóRevenge of the Sith

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