Forecast: 'The Other Woman' to Take Down 'Captain America'
by Ray Subers
April 24, 2014
|The Other Woman|| |
With the Summer movie season around the corner, the final weekend of April has three fairly modest movies reaching theaters.
The Other Woman has the best chance of beating three-time champion Captain America: The Winter Soldier, though holdover Heaven is for Real might also contend for the top spot. Meanwhile, Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones probably won't reach $10 million.
At 3,204 locations, comedy The Other Woman should see solid attendance from female audiences. The movie stars Cameron Diaz, Leslie Mann and Kate Upton as three women who team up to get revenge on the man who has been sleeping with all three of them. Diaz is easily the biggest star of the bunch, and has a decent track record in comedies like Bad Teacher ($100.3 million) and What Happens in Vegas ($80.3 million).
The movie's tagline nicely sums up the focus of the marketing: "The oddest friends are about to get even." Advertisements have clearly laid out the revenge plot while also highlighting the fun camaraderie between the main characters. Despite the fact that women represent half of the population—and half of moviegoers—it's practically unheard of for a movie to feature three female leads. The Other Woman seems poised to cash in on this void.
Fox is predicting mid-to-high teens for the weekend, which would likely put it in first place. Meanwhile, Fandango reports that ticket sales are ahead of recent April/May female-skewing movies like Something Borrowed ($13.9 million), The Five-Year Engagement ($10.6 million) and What to Expect When You're Expecting ($10.5 million). An opening over $15 million seems like a safe bet at this point.
At 2,647 locations, Brick Mansions is notable for one main reason: it features the final role that star Paul Walker completed before a tragic accident ended his life last December. Otherwise, the movie looks like a fairly generic thriller from prolific French action producer Luc Besson (it's a remake of his 2006 movie District B13).
Outside of the Taken franchise, Besson's movies have been consistently low performers at the domestic box office. Recent movies similar to Brick Mansions include From Paris with Love, Colombiana and Lockout, all of which opened between $6 and $11 million. Even with the Walker factor, it would be surprising if Brick Mansions broke out of this range.
British horror movie The Quiet Ones is the final new release this weekend. The supernatural horror genre has been consistently strong in recent years, though it's had a rough start so far in 2014: January's Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones and Devil's Due combined for less than $50 million, while Oculus may fall short of $30 million.
Playing at 2,027 theaters, The Quiet Ones is poised to continue this streak. The movie does seem to check off a few key boxes: it features some found footage, is loosely based on a true story, and has plenty of creepy imagery. Marketing doesn't show much in the way of story or character, though, so there's not much to distinguish this from the rest of the genre. Lionsgate reports that the movie is tracking best among young women; currently, they're expecting between $6 and $8 million for the weekend.
Forecast (April 25-27)
1. The Other Woman - $17 million
2. Heaven is for Real - $14.2 million (-37%)
3. Rio 2 - $13.7 million (-38%)
4. Captain America - $13.6 million (-47%)
5. Brick Mansions - $8.2 million
6. The Quiet Ones - $7.6 million
Bar for Success
The Other Woman is in fine shape if it opens over $15 million. Meanwhile, Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones need over $10 million.
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