News

2011 Preview: Introduction

by Brandon Gray
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
 

 
January 28, 2011

At first glance, 2011 may wow with its lineup of big-name sequels (final Harry Potter, fourth Pirates of the Caribbean, third Transformers, etc.) and other major franchise fare (Thor, Captain America, Green Lantern, etc.). But that may just be a veneer: a schedule packed with ever more sequels and adaptations can limit growth opportunities as was seen in 2010.

Thus far, 2011's off to an anemic start, and prospects aren't much rosier for the near future. At the same point, 2010 was riding on the back of 2009 holdover Avatar to record grosses and had Alice in Wonderland around the corner. But 2010 ended with a whimper, resulting in weak holdover business for 2011. Throw in a sub-par January slate, and 2011 is currently running 31 percent behind 2010. 2011's gross-to-date is also down substantially from 2009 and 2008, and attendance is at its lowest in close to 20 years.

As the year progresses, the franchises and 3D presentations will ramp up, but it remains to be seen whether they'll lift 2011 out of its hole. There will hopefully be some original fare that breaks out, but such movies are largely invisible at this stage, obscured by the franchises and a lack of information and promotional materials.

Currently, there are 128 movies scheduled for nationwide release in 2011. Given how young the year is, that number is surely to rise, but it's not indicative of a particularly product-laden year: 2010 had 141 nationwide releases, which was the lowest amount since 2001.

To provide some early perspective on what's to come, Box Office Mojo has profiled many of 2011's key genres, trends and most anticipated movies (click the links below):

Sequels: Now, More Than Ever.
Animation Streak Rolls On.
Comic Book Cacophony.
Comedy: Too Fuzzy to Be Buzzy.
Ten Miscellaneous Contenders



RECENT ARTICLES
9/18 Forecast: 'Maze Runner' on Track for Big First Place Debut
9/14 Weekend Report: 'No Good Deed' Succeeds, 'Guardians' Passes $300 Million
9/13 Friday Report: 'No Good Deed' Defeats 'Dolphin Tale' Sequel
9/11 Forecast: 'Dolphin Tale,' 'No Good Deed' to Lead Another Quiet Weekend
9/10 Grading Mojo's Summer 2014 Forecast
9/10 Grading Mojo's Summer 2014 Forecast (cont.)
> MORE: News | Features
LATEST UPDATES
WEEKLY: Sept. 12-18 (102 tracked)
DAILY: Thursday, 9/18 (48 tracked)
SCHEDULE: 'Amityville,' 'Demonic'
THEATERS: 9/26 Estimates
THEATERS: 9/19 Counts
SCHEDULE: 'Deadpool,' 'Fantastic Four,' 'Assassin's Creed,' 'Paper Towns'
SCHEDULE: 'Top Five,' 'A Most Violent Year'
SCHEDULE: 'Kidnap,' 'The Disappointments Room'
SCHEDULE: 'Paranormal Activity 5,' 'Scouts vs. Zombies'
MPAA: New Ratings - 'Mockingjay,' 'Into the Woods,' 'Blackhat'
New poster for 'Interstellar' >
FOREIGN CHARTS >
Japan: 'Guardians' opens in 3rd >
Korea: 'Begin Again' in 2nd >
Australia: 'Ninja Turtles' rules >
Germany: 'Sex Tape' dominates >
U.K.: 'Boxtrolls' on top >
Brazil: 'Hercules' repeats >
Mexico: 'Maze Runner' in 1st >
France: 'Sex Tape' in 2nd >
Italy: 'Fault' holds off 'Sex Tape' >
> MORE UPDATES