Forecast: Matrix Reclaims #1

by Brandon Gray
April 23, 1999

Life has done its time at #1. Like so many niche pictures before it, a precipitous drop of around 40% or more is in store. Meanwhile, The Matrix has been dropping around 20% each weekend. There is no reason to believe its good fortune should change this weekend. With around $14 million, it should reside at the top spot once again.

Pushing Tin appears to be a modestly sized blip on the radar screen. The air traffic controller comedy has had a decent, if slightly low profile ad campaign. Fox is releasing it on only 1,283 screens, which could mean that they want to start small and then expand, but most likely means they're dumping it. Though, it should be noted that John Cusack's Grosse Pointe Blank got 1,227 screens back in April '97 yet still managed to open with $6.9 million.

If only Warner Bros. would dump Lost and Found! Instead they're releasing it on a whopping 2,469 screens. This is the picture that poses the question: Is there life after Chris Farley for David Spade? What's more, will anyone buy Spade as the lead in a romantic comedy? The answer to both will likely be a resounding "No." Warner Bros. has ensured fairly high audience awareness though, as this picture has perhaps the most ubiquitous trailer out there. So ubiquitous, in fact, that it's annoying as hell. Also, keep in mind that the WB is the same studio that gave Major League 3, Soldier, and The King and I similarly wide releases.

The delayed Election only opens on six screens this weekend. MTV and Paramount apparently still can't figure out what to do with it, so they're cautiously testing the waters.

For the specific predictions, check out the Forecast.

3/18 'Black Panther' Tops $600M Domestically While 'I Can Only Imagine' Surprises with $17M Debut
3/15 Can 'Black Panther' Fend Off 'Tomb Raider' for Fifth Straight Weekend at #1?
3/11 'Black Panther' Remains Box Office King, Topping $1 Billion Worldwide
3/8 Disney's 'A Wrinkle in Time' and 'Black Panther' Compete for the Weekend's Top Spot
3/4 'Black Panther' Tops $500 Million, Becoming Tenth Largest Domestic Release All-Time
3/1 'Black Panther' Preps for Third Weekend at #1 as 'Red Sparrow' & 'Death Wish' Debut
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WEEKEND: Weekend Estimates, 'Black Panther' #1
DAILY: Friday Estimates, 'Tomb Raider' #1
WEEKLY: 'Black Panther' Tops the Week with $57.49m
DAILY: Thursday 3/15 (45 tracked)
DAILY: Wednesday, 3/14 (42 tracked)
DAILY: Tuesday, 3/13 (42 tracked)
New MPAA Ratings Added
DAILY: Monday, 3/12 (42 tracked)