Box Office Mojo
Box Office Column

May 2000

5/30 Weekend Box Office

After being belittled by dwindling returns this past year, Tom Cruise reaffirmed his box office potency as Mission: Impossible 2 delivered $70.8 million over the long weekend. The John Woo-directed actioner achieved this feat from 3,653 theaters, the new record for widest release. Its $57.8 million three-day tally narrowly surpassed Toy Story 2 to become the third biggest opening of all time, behind The Lost World and The Phantom Menace. Not to mention it's the best opening in Paramount's and Cruise's history. It's $91.8 million six-day haul puts it $16.9 million ahead of the $74.9 million the original had at this point. Adjusted for inflation though, the original was at $86 million and ended its run with around $208 million. Whether M:I-2 can surpass this remains to be seen, but when it comes to sequels, the bigger they are the harder they tend to fall.

Memorial Day weekend has been traditionally characterized by one picture completely dominating at the expense of others. This year was different, as the box office pie expanded to include all. Overall business reached $184.8 million, breaking the record set by the $166 million grossed over last year's July 4 frame. This bodes well for the upcoming July 4th frame when The Patriot and The Perfect Storm collide.

Shanghai Noon posted a strong showing of $19.6 million despite the presence of goliath M:I-2 and others, reminding once again that even direct competition is an overrated factor in determining a picture's success. The Jackie Chan starrer could have a leggy run, as word-of-mouth was at a strong 94% favorable rating and the picture enjoyed a 48% bump-up on Saturday.

Holdovers benefited from the expansive marketplace as well, enjoying minor declines. Road Trip dropped just 12% to $13.5 million and $35.3 million so far, about 26% behind American Pie at the same time in its run. Gladiator continued to show off its legs, easing by 13% to $17.1 million and a rousing $127 million after four weeks. Throw in the $73 million it has grossed overseas so far, and its worldwide cume has already reached $200 million.

Curiously though, no wide release saw an improvement. What many deemed the likeliest to enjoy a bump-up, Dinosaur, actually dropped 17% to $32 million. Disney shouldn't sweat it too much though. Even the mighty Lion King slipped from its $40.9 million opening to around $34 million in its second frame and four-day July 4th holiday weekend back in 1994.

While Tom Cruise was flying high, his fellow Scientologist John Travolta was retreating deeper and deeper into the bowels of the Celebrity Center as the $73-million budgeted Battlefield Earth plummeted 72% to $1.1 million and a cume of just $20.4 million after three weeks. It lost only 22% or 720 of its theaters, 3,307 to 2,587. Next week should see an even greater exodus of theaters, and Battlefield Earth won't be around to pick on anymore. As bad a picture it is, I think we'll all miss it.

In limited action, Demi Moore's first picture in nearly three years, Passion of Mind, grossed just $236,047 from 104 theaters for a paltry $2,270 average.

Overall box office totaled a record-breaking $184.8 million, up 29% over the same frame last year when The Phantom Menace topped the chart with its $66.9 million second weekend haul on its way to $431.1 million total.

5/25 Forecast

After attempting to prove his acting chops in the artsy-fartsy Eyes Wide Shut and Magnolia, Tom Cruise returns in a Tom Cruise role with Mission: Impossible 2 (or M:I-2 as Paramount would like you to call it), hoping to establish a lucrative franchise. After all, he reportedly earned $70 million from backend participation in the first one. Never mind that this is Mission: Impossible in name alone with only the theme song and self-destructing messages to distinguish it from being a distilled James Bond wanna-be with some Hong Kong chop-socky thrown in.

Like the original, the sequel features a well-known director and an exotic beauty. The first had Brian De Palma and French import Emmanuelle Beart. This time it's John Woo and the beloved Thandie Newton. Also like the original, this was a troubled production that went over-budget (to a reported $125 million) and had to be bumped from its initial holiday release date to May. The production overran so much in fact that Newton had to bow out of Charlie's Angels (replaced by Shanghai Noon's Lucy Liu) and Dougray Scott, who plays the bad guy, had to pass on being Wolverine in X-Men.

Unlike the original, the "plot" has been simplified and additional exposition added to make damn certain that the audience doesn't get confused like they did last time. But this picture isn't about plot. It's essentially a video game that you can't play, from the acrobatic one-on-one fights straight out of Street Fighter to the dance of the Porsche 911 and Audi TT.

The original opened to $56.8 million and had $74.9 million after its first six days. It ended its run with $181 million (not to mention an additional $284 million overseas). The general rule of sequels is that they make approximately 60% of the original. Lately though, this rule has been broken time and again, most notably by the Austin Powers, Toy Story and Friday sequels which actually exceeded their much loved originals by wide margins. More comparable to M:I-2, the latest James Bond picture, The World is Enough, scored the biggest opening of the series, $35.5 million, and highest unadjusted gross, $126.9 million.

It appears that it's mission accomplished for Cruise though, as M:I-2 pulled in a whopping $12.5 million on Wednesday from 3,653 theaters, the new record for widest release. Its trajectory could lead it to around $65 million for the weekend, or approximately the same as the original's opening if adjusted for inflation.

In a baffling bit of scheduling, Disney opens Jackie Chan's Shanghai Noon in M:I-2's wake. This isn't exactly "counter-programming" as both are action pictures and share the same male demographic, with only the comedy and western setting to differentiate Noon. In such a match-up, one picture will almost invariably dominate, and it's usually the one that's the event, M:I-2 in this case.

It's a shame too, since Chan in his first Hollywood picture since 1998's Rush Hour, which opened to $33 million en route to $141.2 million, had hit potential if given the chance. Noon even follows the same formula as that blockbuster: a culture clash action-comedy, this time set in the old west instead of present day L.A., pairing Chan with an up-and-coming comedy star, this time Owen Wilson instead of Chris Tucker.

Further hampering it is a fairly incoherent and uninspiring ad campaign and additional direct competition from Gladiator and Road Trip. For unmitigated fun, this may likely be the picture of choice over the ponderous M:I-2, but its box office won't reflect that. Expect business in the $12 million range and a fifth-place finish.

After displaying its dino-might last weekend with a massive $38.9 million haul, Dinosaur enters this weekend confidently, knowing well that it has the whole family market to its Disney-fied self. Throw in some strong word-of-mouth amongst its target audience, and it should decline only slightly, likely reaching the $35 million range for second place.

Gladiator, sharing much the same audience with M:I-2, will likely take its biggest hit yet, emerging with around $15 million when the long weekend is done. Being a comedy, Road Trip has less to worry about, but it still shares much the same demographics plus is not the kind of picture that holds up terribly well anyway. Look for it to score in the $12 million range.

Over this same frame last year, The Phantom Menace raked in $66.9 million in its second weekend, bringing its tally to an incredible $207.1 million after just 13 days en route to $431.1 million total. In an excellent example of counter-programming, Notting Hill, appealing to a decidedly different audience, romanced $27.7 million on its way to $116.1 million. The key pictures combined made $136.9 million, a total that should easily be surpassed this weekend.

5/22 A Brief History of Memorial Day Weekend

Return of the Jedi was the first mega-opener over this frame, pulling in $30.5 million from 1,002 theaters in 1983. The next year, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom ventured forth with $33.9 million from 1,687 theaters. Spectacular when considering inflation and that these pictures weren't playing at nearly as many theaters as is commonplace today.

Things cooled slightly the year after that, when Rambo: First Blood Part II grunted its way to $25.5 million from a then-record 2,074 theaters. To be fair, it went up against two other major contenders in a first for the frame. They were A View to a Kill with $13.3 million and Brewster's Millions with $9.6 million.

It wasn't until 1996 though, that the May uber-opening was indelibly ushered in by the first Mission: Impossible (along with Twister's $41.1 million two weeks earlier). It opened on a Wednesday at a then-record 3,012 theaters. It scorched the tarmac with $74.9 million in just its first six days (including Tuesday night previews). $56.8 million of which was over the weekend with Twister in second place with $38 million in its third frame.

In 1997, The Lost World: Jurassic Park scored the biggest opening in history with $92.7 million and raising the theater count record again to 3,281 this time. The following year, another giant lizard, Godzilla, hoped to achieve similar success, even opening at yet another record of 3,310 theaters, but fell well short with $55.7 million. Last year, The Phantom Menace's second weekend was still the main event, and it took in an astonishing $66.9 million.

5/22 Weekend Box Office

The nation's love affair with all things Jurassic continued as Dinosaur dominated the weekend. Playing at 3,257 theaters, Disney's dinos devoured a dino-mite $38.9 million, the third best opening for an animated picture of all time behind Toy Story 2's $57.4 million and The Lion King's $40.9 million, though those two benefited from Thanksgiving and summer respectively. Dinosaur achieved this height by being not merely a significant draw for kids, but teens and couples as well, which comprised 31% of its audience. Furthermore, its opening surpassed Gladiator's to become the biggest of the year thus far, though its reign will likely be short-lived with the advent of Mission: Impossible 2 this week.

Contrary to what many sensationalistic headlines suggest, Dinosaur did not slay, chew up, bitch-slap or do anything else to Gladiator other than dethrone it. In fact, Gladiator held up exceptionally well, losing just 19% to take in $19.7 million. Its cume reached $103.1 million, making it the second picture of the year to reach the century mark, Erin Brockovich being the first.

Road Trip got off to a $15.5 million start, matching its $15 million production budget, something that is rarely done during an opening weekend. It's not quite the next American Pie though, which opened to $18.7 million last July en route to $101.8 million.

Small Time Crooks snatched $3.9 million from 865 venues, giving Woody Allen his best opening ever. Dreamworks wisely marketed it as a screwball comedy, something Woody hasn't done in some time.

Battlefield Earth took a stunning nosedive in its second weekend, plunging 66% to $3.9 million. That's even more than such recent stinkers as Batman and Robin (63% drop), Godzilla (59%) and The Avengers (64%). With just $18.3 million to date, the $73 million butt-of-many-a-joke will likely peter out at around $23 million. International prospects don't appear promising either, as there are even fewer Scientologists and John Travolta fans abroad, not to mention the word-of-mouth spreading over the internet.

On the other hand, two holdovers held up remarkably well. U-571 submerged by just 19% to $4.6 million and $64.4 million to date. Frequency enjoyed the smallest decline of wide releases, down a mere 11% to $4.3 million, bringing the sleeper hit's cume to $30.4 million.

Overall box office totaled $115.9 million, up 35% over last weekend and up 5% over the same frame last year when The Phantom Menace topped the chart with $64.8 million en route to $431.1 million total.

5/19 Forecast

Dinosaur looks to make the competition extinct this weekend. Reports have it costing Disney anywhere from $130 - 200 million to make. An extra $80 million was spent on a brand new animation facility as this was their first in-house stab at full blown computer animation.

Despite this considerable effort to break new ground in animation, the story is pedestrian, looking like little more than a cross between Tarzan and The Land Before Time. Furthermore, for all the attention to being realistic, having the dinos talk just looks plain goofy, and disappointing as early trailers suggested there would be no dialogue. And those lemurs have got to go. Computer animation hasn't yet reached the state that it can render mammals convincingly.

Breaking with Disney tradition, the picture garnered a PG-rating instead of the usual G. Another risky change is the May release date. For the past six years, Disney has saved its in house animation events for June, when the kids are off school.

At any rate, dinosaurs usually are dino-mite at attracting audiences. The Discovery Channel's recent special Walking with Dinosaurs garnered record ratings, though with its similar use of CGI, it may have also quelled the public's appetite for this sort of thing. Jurassic Park grossed an enormous $357.1 million, though it had the Westworld and human interaction hooks. Its sequel, The Lost World, still retains the title of all time biggest opening weekend, $72.1 million in May 1997.

Roaring into 3,257 theaters, a wider opening than any Disney release before it, Dinosaur could gross a massive $33 million.

Hoping it has the next warm American Pie on its crotch rather than its face, Dreamworks embarks on a Road Trip this weekend. The picture even features that obnoxious blond guy from Pie and Tom Green insisting that it's a good movie between testicular cancer treatments.

The ad campaign proclaims the road trip to be the "most time honored college tradition." And here I thought it was the good ol' fashioned drunken, frat house gang bang.

Of course, this picture about horny teenage guys appeals primarily to horny teenage guys, who haven't had a cinematic opportunity for release in quite some time. To broaden appeal, Dreamworks has also launched a "See what's really on guys' minds" ad campaign to bring in the girls. Though, the sneak preview last Friday night played to only 60-70% capacity at 800 theaters.

Arriving at 2,530 theaters, Road Trip could boff its way to a boffo opening in the $15 million range.

Dreamworks also opens Woody Allen's latest, Small Time Crooks, co-starring fellow scandal victim Hugh Grant. Though it sounds odd that a studio would release two of its pictures on the same weekend, for the most part the audience for the Wood-man, aside from being minuscule, is not the same one as for a teenage sex comedy. Though Woody himself would probably prefer the latter.

Dreamworks attempted similar counter-programming on this same weekend last year when they mailed The Love Letter to 769 theaters under the shadow of The Phantom Menace. It opened to just $2.7 million on its way to a paltry $8.3 million total. Playing at 863 venues, expect Small Time Crooks to also make small time bucks with an opening in the same $2 million range.

Another Dreamworks offering Gladiator has dominated the market for the past two weeks, grossing about $83 million to date. With momentum on its side and no direct competition until Mission: Impossible 2 next week, it could enjoy another modest decline this weekend, coming in at the $17 million range and likely pushing its cume past the century mark.

It goes without saying that Battlefield Earth will fall off the face of the earth. John Travolta might not even notice since after the disastrous opening weekend he's probably been holed up deep in the recesses of the Scientology Celebrity Center getting "audited" up the wazoo. Expect the $73-million bellyflop to manage just around $5 million this weekend.

5/16 Weekend Box Office

Gladiator threw the Scientologists to the lions, as its second weekend haul of $24.6 million more than doubled the opening of the universally reviled Battlefield Earth. It eased by just 29%, phenomenal for a picture performing at these levels, bringing its total to $73.6 million after ten days. In comparison, last year's early May summer kick-off The Mummy was down 43% to $24.9 million in its second frame and had accumulated $80.6 million. 1998's Deep Impact was also down 43% to $23.3 million bringing its total to $74 million. Both pictures ended their runs with $155.4 and $140.5 million respectively.

Few were interested in seeing a cackling John Travolta prancing about in dreadlocks and an enormous codpiece as his $73 million pet project Battlefield Earth mustered just $11.5 million from 3,307 theaters, the fifth widest release of all time. What will this do to his "tone scale"? Perhaps some intensive "auditing" at the Celebrity Center is now in store for him to get all of his "thetans" in order.

My God, what does one say about Battlefield Earth that hasn't been said already? The ad campaign declares that "John Travolta is the new face of evil." Hey, they said it. Not me. "The summer movie season starts off with a bang." Yeah, from the sound of this megaton bomb exploding.

Distributor Warner Bros. won't be losing that much money though. They just paid for the prints and advertising and are getting first dollar until they recoup their costs. Franchise Pictures, who foot the hefty production bill, will be the one hurting though, as the picture will peter out quickly, drowning them in red ink. They should have known better. No way in hell was this thing ever going to make money.

Looking like a teeny-bopperized cross between Fame and The Red Shoes, Center Stage had a lukewarm reception. The Sony release pirouetted to the tune of $4.6 million from 1,506 theaters.

The long delayed Screwed screwed up Norm MacDonald's movie career further as the comedy opened to just $3.3 million from 1,759 theaters, though it wasn't promoted much at all nor effectively by Universal. His previous effort Dirty Work opened to $3.6 million from a similar theater count, 1,776, in June 1998, and petered out at $10 million.

Held Up starring Jamie Foxx and Nia Long got next to zero promotion from Trimark, thus explaining its slim $1.9 million from 688 theaters. Perhaps this half-assed release was out of contractual obligation and more to promote its launch in video stores where Trimark's titles usually go straight to.

In limited action, yet another movie version of Hamlet opened, this time starring the greasy Ethan Hawke in the title role. It did so-so business, taking in $62,253 from four venues.

Meanwhile U-571, Frequency, Where the Heart Is and holdovers in general held up quite well, mostly declining in the 20% range. In a somewhat baffling move, Universal added another 74 theaters to The Flintstones sequel's run, bringing its total to a way-too-wide 3,125 theaters. It was down 30% to $4.6 million, for a measly $1,485 average and meager $24.4 million to date.

Overall box office totaled $85.8 million, down 3% from last weekend, but up 21% over the same frame last year when The Mummy unwrapped $24.9 million for its second outing.

5/9 Weekend Box Office

The $100 million spectacle Gladiator kicked off the summer movie season with an epic $34.8 million, a total that turned out to be $2.1 million greater than DreamWorks' refreshingly conservative estimate. It edged out Scream 3's $34.7 million opening, to be the mightiest of the year so far, but came in third among R-rated pictures overall behind Air Force One's $37.1 million and Interview with the Vampire's $36.4 million.

Possibly reflecting strong word-of-mouth and its 96% approval rating, Gladiator was down just 26% on Sunday when the average is generally around 40%. Sure, it fell short of the early-May, $40-million club that The Mummy, Deep Impact and Twister belong to, but those pictures had more inclusive ratings, less significant competition and broader demographic appeal. If it holds up as well as those did, it would total north of $125 million. At any rate, it should easily vanquish Battlefield: Earth next weekend.

U-571 did not take a dive in its third weekend despite the hefty competition from Gladiator. Down 36% to $7.8 million for $49.6 million to date, it held up slightly better than it did last weekend.

Meanwhile, Universal has nothing to "yabba-dabba-doo" about over The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas. The $58-million dollar kid pic was down a sizable-for-its-genre 36% to $6.6 million for $18.6 million to date.

New Line's solid year continued as Frequency de-tuned by just 27% for $6.5 million and $17.9 million to date. That's a similar hold as stablemate and sleeper hit Final Destination had in its second frame, and all the more impressive given the direct competition from Gladiator.

Where the Heart Is may not be where the audience's heart is as it dropped 38% to $5.1 million, sizable for a chick flick. The total stands at $15.7 million, a good sum for Fox though, which spent just $9 million for the rights to distribute it.

I Dreamed of Africa had a nightmarish debut for Sony. The $34-million production intended as counter-programming managed just $2.4 million from 2,112 theaters.

In limited action, Up at the Villa starring Kristin Scott Thomas and Sean Penn opened to a mediocre $339,819 from 89 theaters. Michael Jordan to the MAX scored $578,141 at 41 IMAX theaters. Solid debut, even in light of the $2 million weekends Fantasia 2000 was having, which ended its run last week to gear up for a wide summer release in normal theaters.

Overall box office totaled $88.3 million, up 7% over last weekend and up 2% over the same frame last year when The Mummy topped the chart with $43.4 million en route to $155.4 million total.

5/5 Forecast

It's about damn time for a big, blustery epic. The $100 million Gladiator directed by Ridley Scott and starring Russell Crowe could fit the bill. It recalls the expensive Roman epics of the past like Ben-Hur and Spartacus, a genre that has been neglected for ages with the last one being 1964's The Fall of the Roman Empire. This alone distinguishes it in the marketplace, but the marketing has also done right by it with the rollicking "Hero Will Rise" campaign and by making an analogy with modern day sports.

Last year, The Mummy opened on this same weekend with $43.4 million. In 1998, Deep Impact took $41.2 million. Twister cemented the early May tent pole release by opening to $41.1 million in 1996. The largest R-rated opening ever was by 1997's Air Force One with $37.1 million from 2,919 theaters or approximately $41 million adjusted for inflation.

Possibly holding back Gladiator from joining the $40-million club are a relative lack of cross-gender appeal, relatively low star power and that its target audience of men certainly hasn't been deprived lately with U-571, Frequency and Rules of Engagement in the past month alone. With 5,000 screens over 2,938 theaters allowing multiple showings, the 154-minute running time won't be much of a factor though.

It goes without saying that this will be huge, likely making more money this weekend than Crowe's last picture The Insider did in its entire run.

Kim Basinger appears in her first picture since she co-starred with Crowe in L.A. Confidential. With I Dreamed of Africa, Sony hopes to counter-program to adults in the way that The Horse Whisperer did in May 1998, but its prospects look more similar to last year's A Midsummer Night's Dream. Basinger is not much of a draw, and the picture looks rather bland in the trailer. Bad reviews will hurt too, as this picture's audience is more apt to follow them. Opening at 2,112 theaters, I Dreamed of Africa can only dream of box office fortune.

5/2 Weekend Box Office

It baffles that The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas even got made. What did the studio just greenlight it solely based on the original's $360 million worldwide gross, disregarding such things as the six years that had passed, the entirely new cast and that the original just was neither begging for a another one nor was that well liked to begin with. Predictably, the $58 million production tanked, opening to just $10.5 million from mega-wide 3,040 theaters.

Audiences tuned into Frequency to the tune of $9 million from 2,621 venues. Not bad for the $22-million budgeted underdog. Whether it will become a true sleeper like its New Line stablemate Final Destination remains to be seen as it faces fierce competition for its mostly male demographic starting this Friday with Gladiator. The new "It will make grown men cry" campaign may not help either. Aside from potentially turning off the very grown men the movie targets, it comes off as more of a parody of these types of ads than anything else. Especially with this mouthful of a quote: "It's Back to the Future meets Field of Dreams meets It's a Wonderfel Life meets The Sixth Sense."

Where the Heart Is opened to $8.3 million from 2,437 theaters, solid given the chick flick competition out there and likely quite profitable for Fox, which paid just $9 million for the rights to distribute the $15 million picture in English speaking countries. The opening was also a substantial improvement over Natalie Portman's last picture, Anywhere But Here, which garnered $5.6 million last November en route to just $18.7 million total.

As expected, U-571 held onto the top spot, though it did drop 37% to $12.2 million, totaling $38.1 million after 10 days. Sleeper hit of the spring Final Destination continues to marvel with its remarkable holds, down just 14% to $2.4 million and $45.9 million to date. On the other hand, The Road to El Dorado collapsed 61% confirming suspicions that, without significant competition for families, it was making its money by default.

In limited action, Mike Figgis' Time Code got off to a solid $93,148 start from seven venues. The Big Kahuna starring Kevin Spacey and Danny DeVito moved $80,957 from 8 theaters. Somewhat disappointing, given the star power. At least it wasn't the disaster that Heather Graham starrer Committed was. Playing at six theaters, it managed just $11,452 or a $1,909 average.

Overall box office totaled $82.8 million, down 10% from last weekend, but up 35% over the same frame last year when Entrapment topped the chart with $20.1 million en route to $87.7 million total.

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Brandon Gray