June 1999

Big Daddy's $41.5 million take was hot like a Tennessee Williams play. That's the 13^th biggest opening weekend of all time, and a career best for Adam Sandler, beating The Waterboy's $39.4 million opening by $2.1 million. Now, will Big Daddy have the legs to beat that picture's $161.5 million total as well, or is its current position just like that of a cat on a hot tin roof? Stay tuned.

Several headlines have proclaimed Big Daddy as having the record opening for a non-sequel comedy. While true, this proclamation is really pushing it. Can't they just be content that its grosses lived up to its title? It sure seems like the press has been grasping at straws to find a record for every movie.

Meanwhile, the other pictures all fared as expected, except for The General's Daughter, whose solid 32% drop seemingly belied audiences' reaction.

The Hollywood Reporter recently issued the results of its annual star power survey. Tom Hanks was named most bankable followed by Mel Gibson, Tom Cruise, Harrison Ford, and Jim Carrey.

This list has a fundamental problem. Namely that it is just a poll, subjective by its creators' own admission, and therefore completely meaningless. 135 random movie executives say that these are the most bankable stars. So what? What does this have to do with reality?

There is only one poll that can possibly count in this matter: the box office. People can say so-and-so is the most bankable all they want, but if it doesn't translate into tickets being sold, then the star is not truly bankable. I know this is obvious. That's what makes this list ridiculous.

According to my box office based Star Power 69 formula, Jim Carrey is the most bankable star, while Tom Hanks is fourth. That makes sense too. Who is more crucial to their pictures? Whatever your opinion of each is, you have to agree that the answer is Carrey. He is his own special effect, and clearly the primary selling point for most of his pictures. Whereas Hanks usually has the help of other stars and special effects.

I just had to mention this, because this Hollywood Reporter list received much attention from the media and was blindly accepted as the truth by many.

This past weekend was a prime example of how a number of big movies can compliment rather than cannibalize each other, when there is no significant demographic overlapping. It was the first weekend ever to have three movies gross over $20 million.

Tarzan was king not just of the jungle, but of the box office. The $34.2 million take was enough to displace fellow swinger, Austin Powers, from the top spot. It was also the second largest opening ever for a cartoon, trailing only The Lion King's $40.9 million.

Austin Powers slid around 43% to an estimated $31.4 million. Though it was a significant drop, it was to be expected given the type of picture it is. With a total of $116.1 million, the picture has enough mojo in it to become the second most successful sequel of the decade, behind only Terminator 2.

The General's Daughter was the best example of counter-programming of the week. It was the only new release appealing almost entirely to adults. Couple that with the enormous star power of John Travolta, and you have a $22.3 million opening.

Tarzan only marginally affected The Phantom Menace, which still earned an $18.9 million in its fifth weekend. That's a drop of only around 26%. Fan Day seemed to have little affect, though, as the Saturday bump-up of 53.6% was its lowest since Memorial Day weekend.

The only pictures hurt significantly by the competition were adult skewing releases like Notting Hill, Instinct and Entrapment.

It's swinger vs. swinger this weekend as Tarzan takes on Austin Powers. If Austin put the "grrr" in swinger, did Tarzan make a contribution? Did he put the "win" in swinger? I don't think so, because it looks like Austin has just enough mojo left in him to hold on to that #1 spot.

Tarzan should be the next step towards Disney pulling itself out of its animation slump. Playing at 3,005 theaters, it's the widest a Disney cartoon has ever gone. Actually, 3,000 has suddenly become the standard "event" picture release, and the buzz has made Disney bullish. Last year, the similarly buzzed Mulan improved upon Hercules's take by more than 20%. Tarzan with its broader appeal and apparent slight deviance from the tired Disney formula could see an opening in the Pocahontas range ($29 million). The Lion King will not be matched for a long time if ever, then again I have no idea what the buzz on the playground is.

Austin Powers should fair slightly better than its niche origins would suggest. It's become a zeitgeist and should likely see a 40% drop. That would put it in the low 30's and give it just enough to remain king of the swingers.

The Phantom Menace has some demographic overlapping with Tarzan and therefore should see a slightly bigger drop than last weekend. Apparently, there's something called "Fan Day" when the fans are supposedly going to flood the theaters on Saturday (one month after the opening) in an attempt to put Star Wars back on top and on its way to sink the Titanic. First of all, this sounds way too obsessive. I mean who cares if The Phantom Menace is never #1 again or doesn't beat Titanic? Will it be a worse picture? The fact of the matter is that box office and popularity have nothing to do with a picture's quality, and this fan day presupposes that they do. At any rate, there doesn't seem to be much of a ground swell, and it should have little affect on the box office. Now, to all the fans whose self worth is tied to The Phantom Menace's performance, relax. It's one of the most successful pictures of all time, and its profit margin will likely be much higher than Titanic's. As I've stated before, it should end up making about as much as Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi did if you adjust for inflation.

Meanwhile, The General's Daughter is John Travolta's second lawyer potboiler in six months, only there wasn't much boiling going on in his last one, A Civil Action. Still, Travolta was able to open that inactive Action to over $15 million and in the middle of January. He has considerably more competition now, though the most direct is only that 10 lb. Gorilla, Instinct. I see this picture performing similarly to last June's A Perfect Murder. Hopefully, director Simon West did not bring the whole Jerry Bruckheimer/Michael Bay aesthetic with him from his last picture Con Air. Though I think I saw a hint of that trademark orange filter in the commercial.

Anyway, I'll be going to see The Third Man again.

Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me grossed $54.9 million this past weekend. That's more money in just three days than the original made in its entire run. The last sequel to perform like this was Terminator 2: Judgment Day, which took four days to out gross the original.

Not only did Austin Powers have the third biggest opening of all time, it trounced The Waterboy's comedy opening weekend record by a whopping $15.5 million. It also beat Batman Forever to become the biggest June opening ever.

Even if it does fade fast, its performance is still amazing for a sequel. And with a production cost of $33 million and a $40 million marketing campaign, the picture will likely see some profit from its domestic theatrical release alone.

As far as overall box office was concerned, Austin Powers did not merely take a bigger piece of the box office pie. It made the pie grow. Box office grew 38% over last weekend and about 33% over the same time last year. The other pictures held up well, as if it were just a normal weekend. Most notably was The Phantom Menace, which dropped just 22% to $25.6 million. That's quite the leggy hold and suggests that it will easily finish in its predicted $400 million range.

The Spy Who Shagged Me is poised to become one of the few sequels to out gross the original. Its prospects appear to be the reverse of Mike Myers' previous catch phrase ridden franchise, Wayne's World, which grossed an excellent $121.7 million while the second grossed only $47.1 million.

The original Austin Powers was a sleeper hit, opening with a decent $9.5 million back in early May 1997. It had a fairly leggy run, garnering $53.8 million total. Normally, the ancillary markets would perform similarly, but this picture had a phenomenal afterlife. New Line carefully cultivated a franchise. They orchestrated midnight showings across the country. The promotions and people just liking the picture made it a mainstay on the video charts. It's incredible how its popularity just snowballed, especially for a picture so slight. I mean it was no Shawshank Redemption, which had a similarly amazing afterlife.

Anyway, New Line has done a smashing job of riding the coattails of the Star Wars hype. The trailers suggested that "If you see one movie this summer, see Star Wars. If you see two, see Austin Powers." This was at once a spoof of other movie ad campaigns and a respectful homage that surely endeared the picture to Star Wars fans.

New Line's rather bullish too, giving the picture the widest opening ever, 3,312 theaters, two more than previous record holder Godzilla (though it's on 1,500 fewer screens). The studio has even reportedly spent north of $40 million on marketing.

The timing is impeccable, coming right after everyone has seen Star Wars and after a long comedy drought. But, let's face it, what's really going to push this picture over the top is Mini-Me, the 1/8^th clone of Dr. Evil seemingly inspired by Marlon Brando's little mutant friend from The Island of Dr. Moreau.

The Waterboy may really need some high quality H2O when the weekend's over 'cause his record comedy opening of $39.4 million could get creamed.

Meanwhile, The Phantom Menace can take comfort in winning the $300 million sprint by next Tuesday, despite relinquishing the current top spot.

It's funny how most of the box office reports say that Instinct failed to topple Star Wars. Now, who in their right mind even considered Instinct to be a contender? All you hear is how it failed and disappointed the studio. One report even called its $10.4 million gross "meager." When $10 million or a $5,046 per theater average became "meager," I don't know. A reason for this is that the tracking polls supposedly suggested near blockbuster numbers. That shows you how reliable polls are, yet people in the biz still rely on them heavily.

The reality is that Instinct performed about as well as could possibly be expected. It wasn't the most summery of material, and, due to its adult appeal, the critical derision didn't help. As discussed earlier, the marketing campaign was weak. Plus, it starred actors who are mostly known for supporting work. No other report will tell you this, but this was, in fact, Anthony Hopkins' biggest opening as headlining star.

These reporters have also cited how overall box office was down 10% compared to the same frame last year when The Truman Show opened. What they failed to mention is that, unlike last year, this was the weekend directly after Memorial Day (which came a week later this year for some reason). This weekend is traditionally slow in comparison. Plus, when there is only one new wide release, overall box office will likely go down anyway.

The Phantom Menace's strong hold of last weekend was apparently helped greatly not only by the holiday, but by people who chose to eschew the crowds of the first weekend. The Phantom Menace fell a more down-to-earth 36% to $32.9 million. As stated earlier, this should be its last weekend on top, but after just 19 days, the total stands at a remarkable $255.8 million. This makes it the fastest picture ever to reach the $250 million mark, beating previous record holder Titanic by a whopping 17 days. As indicated earlier though, Titanic's total gross crown is in no danger, as Phantom Menace is on course to peter out at around $400 million, or roughly the same amount as Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi made if you adjust for inflation.

Notting Hill continues to perform similarly to My Best Friend's Wedding. Their opening weekends were $21.8 and $21.7 million respectively. And, now their second weekends were nearly identical with both making $15 million. What's more, Hill has accumulated $49.4 million, only $200,000 more than Wedding had at the same point in its run. However, Hill has been playing at 613 more theaters which suggests that it could burn out faster.

Perhaps the most remarkable hold of the week was by The Matrix. It fell merely 15.4% to $2.45 million.

This third weekend will be the true test of The Phantom Menace's longevity. There's no real new competition, but it is its first normal weekend after the hyped opening and the Memorial holiday. So it should also see a more normal decline in the 35% range. This could even be its last weekend at the #1 spot, as next week the summer season gets into full swing with the Austin Powers sequel.

Instinct is the only new wide release. Like Notting Hill, it is counter-programming to The Phantom Menace. However, this is one of those movies with a ubiquitous trailer that merely drums up indifference. The ad campaign even feebly tries to invoke Anthony Hopkins' most famous role when he says "therapy" in his Hannibal Lecter voice. Hopkins' last foray into the wild was The Edge, which opened with $7.7 million. Expect Instinct to perform in a similarly modest way.

I don't have much more to say on the weekend. Traditionally, the weekend after Memorial Day is when the box office takes a breather and kicks back before the summer onslaught.

The Phantom Menace ended the Memorial Day weekend with $66.9 million, $2.1 million more than what Fox estimated. This was the second weekend in a row that Fox underestimated. Fox has also been underestimating Entrapment lately. Nice to see a studio break from the norm in this regard.

Phantom Menace added two new records to its trophy case: fastest to $200 million (13 days) and highest grossing second weekend ($51.4 million). On Friday, it surpassed The Matrix to become the #1 picture of the year, a title which it will no doubt keep.

Comparing its three-day weekends, it was down only 21%. A 21% drop is considered a strong hold for normal movies. For a movie performing at these levels, it's downright phenomenal.

One more thing to note, with Fox and Lucas having a 70% cut, this picture entered profit this past weekend from its domestic theatrical release alone. That's probably the most amazing feat it has accomplished thus far. Very rarely does a picture ever do that.

Notting Hill featured Julia's trademark smile and Hugh's trademark squirm and walked away with $27.7 million over the long weekend. The media has been gushing that it was the biggest opening for a romantic comedy ever. Well, yes, it is, but barely. It made $21.8 million over the three days, narrowly beating previous record holder My Best Friend's Wedding by $132,803. However, Hill did play at 613 more theaters, and taking into account the slight inflation in the past two years, it sold fewer tickets.

The Thirteenth Floor, the latest from the guy responsible for such atrocities as Independence Day and Godzilla, über hack Roland Emmerich, tanked. It took in only $4.3 million over the long weekend. Obviously, The Phantom Menace's dominance and similarities to The Matrix are what killed it. Not to mention, that it looked like crap.