June 2000

With summer tickets sales lagging 6% behind last year, the marketplace sure could use a boost. Fortunately, this Fourth of July weekend has the potential to be a record breaker, as it will be the first time that this holiday has seen more than one event picture open at the same time. Usually, it has been one plus some counter-programming, most successfully pulled off in 1996 when the event, Independence Day, opened to $50.2 million en route to $306.2 million, while Phenomenon opened to $16.2 million on its way to $104.6 million. However, this time, there seems to be a troubling amount of demographic crossover between two releases, though overall each picture has strong appeal. The fact that for the first time since 1995, the 4th doesn't fall on the weekend could ease this as well.

After a plethora of World War II and Civil War pictures, it's about damn time that the Revolutionary War got some attention. Perhaps the stench from that 1985 Al Pacino bomb Revolution turned off producers for these past 15 years. Now, Sony is filling the void with The Patriot.

The picture wisely plays to Gibson's strengths, the reluctant hero who's on the edge. It recalls one of his most beloved pictures, Braveheart, with the parental concern of Ransom thrown in for good measure. When a star's persona and the material converge to such a degree, box office lightning is likely to strike, such as with Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich, Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire or Harrison Ford in Air Force One. Plus, the trailer features that pseudo-operatic music that helped Romeo Must Die open so well. And perhaps most importantly, what better time to release this picture than on this weekend?

Unfortunately, rather than dealing with the Revolution in a meaningful way, the picture is essentially a revenge action flick. Another problem is uber-hack and Spielberg-wannabe, director Roland Emmerich. He is responsible for two of the worst pictures of all time, Independence Day and Godzilla '98. This is his first attempt at something more dramatic, sans aliens and what not. Given the unoriginality, cheesiness and insincerity of his previous attempts that pop up in his other pictures, this does not bode well. Gibson probably had to exert some of the control that his star power brings him to get things at least somewhat right.

The R rating won't help either, but Gibson's best openings have had the same. Ransom snagged $34.2 million while Lethal Weapon 3 and 4 scored $33.2 and $34 million respectively. The more comparable Braveheart was one of those pictures that are more popular than their initial theatrical grosses indicate. It opened to just $12.9 million over a four-day weekend and ended up with $75.6 million total. The similarly long and R-rated Saving Private Ryan opened to $30.6 million back in 1998.

The Patriot opened on Wednesday with $5 million from 3,061 theaters. While not in the league of past starts, it was strong given that it was a workday for its older skewing audience, who would also find a 164-minute picture daunting in the evening, and who wouldn't want to miss Survivor anyway. Word-of-mouth should help, making a $30 million weekend feasible.

George Clooney reteams with his Three Kings co-star Marky Mark in The Perfect Storm, a $120 million disaster picture from director Wolfgang Petersen (Das Boot, Air Force One). Composer James Horner (Titanic) wrote the music and with John Williams (Star Wars) having done The Patriot, this weekend could also be considered the battle of the bombastic scores.

This may not have been the perfect time to release The Perfect Storm. Sure, other disaster pictures that opened on this frame include Armageddon, Independence Day and Apollo 13, but they had little in the way of direct competition. Storm plays to just about the same audience as The Patriot. Which means that the two will cannibalize each other to a degree, though Storm's PG-13 rating is certainly more inclusive. Also in Storm's favor is that it's the first disaster picture of the season.

The ad campaign which Warner Bros. has been waging since Battlefield Earth flopped hasn't been as focused as The Patriot's. It has been trying to appeal to everyone, from the heroic "take it by storm" ad to the misguided everyman ad that comes off as a truck or beer commercial with that cliched gruff voiceover.

*SPOILER WARNING* The media and the stars themselves have freely admitted that everyone dies at the end, so the people who want to see it knowing this would have to be sadomasochists. The reason being is that there is no thematic necessity, no tragic flaws why these people have to die. All the picture seems to say is that a random natural disaster can squash you at any time, a rather malevolent view. Then again, to allow the characters to survive would have been a cheesy rewriting of history. Perhaps it just should have been a documentary if anything at all. The ending could affect the picture's long term prospects as well. Another disaster picture, Deep Impact, had a downer ending and that fizzled after its $41.2 million opening to a $140.5 million total. Then again, that was also just a bad movie. *END OF SPOILER*

Opening at 3,407 theaters, Storm may encounter troubled waters, but should still give The Patriot a run for its money with an opening in the high twenty million range.

Blending live action and animation, Jay Ward's beloved moose and squirrel finally make it to the big screen in The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle.

The trailer has sort of an Austin Powers vibe to it. After all, Rocky and Bulllwinkle are sixties icons unleashed into the modern world here. Plus, it's chock full of pop culture references, and it has its own super villain with a funny accent, Robert DeNiro as Fearless Leader, who even spoofs his famous "You talkin' to me?" lines from Taxi Driver. However, most of the jokes fall flat.

The closest comparison and one that the teaser trailer itself mentioned is obviously Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, which opened at about the same time in the summer of 1988. It ultimately grossed $156.5 million or about $193 million adjusted for inflation. Recent live action/animation combos include Space Jam ($90.4 million total), Small Soldiers ($55.1 million) and Stuart Little ($140 million). Other Jay Ward characters to make it to the big screen were both released in the summertime and starred Brendan Fraser, the 1997 blockbuster George of the Jungle ($105.3 million) and the 1999 bomb Dudley Do-Right ($9.8 million).

Direct competition will come from Chicken Run, which has the momentum behind it to enjoy another gross in the mid-teens. With a weak ad campaign, Universal seems to have given up on Rocky and Bullwinkle, which early on was touted as an event. Opening at about 2,457 theaters, it might land in fifth place with a gross in the low teens.

Among holdovers, mixed word-of-mouth and an inherently front-loaded nature should cause Jim Carrey's Me, Myself & Irene to tumble by around 40% to about $15 million and third place finish.

Over the same frame last year, Will Smith lost his "Mr. 4th of July" title when the much hyped and mega-budgeted Wild Wild West opened to a disappointing $27.7 million and stumbled its way to a $113.8 million. South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut opened solidly with $11.3 million and ended its run with $52 million, while Spike Lee's Summer of Sam was yet another financial bust for him, opening to $6 million en route to $19.3 million.

In 1998, Armageddon was the only new wide release, yet it opened to a slightly disappointing $36.1 million. Disney sure as hell wasn't going let it peter out before hitting $200 million, so their marketing became even more aggressive. Its holds in later weeks were perhaps too remarkable, as it ended up with a controversial $201.6 million.

In 1997, Men in Black opened with a whopping $51.1 million and zapped up a $250.2 million total, the crown jewel in a rare boffo year for Sony. The only other wide entry was the Lemmon/Matthau starrer Out to Sea, which opened to $5.9 million en route to $28 million.

Perhaps most comparable to this year, 1995 saw three pictures open simultaneously, but only one broke out. Apollo 13 blasted off with $25.4 million and rocketed to $172.1 million. Kiddie fad picture, Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers, managed $13.1 million sputtering out at $37.8 million, while Sylvester Stallone's Judge Dredd could muster only $12.3 million petering out at a dreadful $34.7 million.

The summer of 2000 continues to lag behind last year, despite the continued rise in ticket prices and number of theaters. Case in point, this weekend's #1 picture, Me, Myself & Irene, grossed $24.2 million or about the same as the #2 picture, Tarzan, made over the same frame last year, when Big Daddy opened in first with a whopping $41.5 million. Overall box office for the season has reached $774 million, about 6% behind last year. Exhibitors are quaking in their boots, especially with all the money they've been hemorrhaging lately and an upcoming slate of pictures that doesn't appear commercially potent enough to turn things around.

The R rating may have affected Me, Myself & Irene more than expected, given Jim Carrey's legion of young fans. It delivered his fourth best opening as sole star, $24.2 million, from 3,019 theaters, the widest release for any of his pictures. Granted it's a strong debut and will likely be profitable, it's just disappointing given the lofty standards he set in the past. After all, to think that a Carrey comedy had a smaller opening than Martin Lawrence's Big Momma's House or Nic Cage's Gone in 60 Seconds is incredible. How the mighty have fallen, and how the meek have inherited the box office.

With a lowly 76% approval rating, this could be a Cable Guy redux. That widely reviled picture came out at about the same time of year and also featured Carrey in a dark role. It opened to $19.8 million from 2,657 theaters, and petered out at $60.2 million. Adjusted for inflation though, its opening was about $22.8 million from 363 fewer theaters.

Carrey's appearances on The Tonight Show and MTV foreshadowed this unspectacular performance. Instead of his joyous live-wire schtick of old, he reeked of desperation. You could see him trying to think of something funny to do or say as he sweated profusely. When you can see the machinations behind the curtain, it's just no longer funny.

On the plus side, it was the Farrelly Bros.' best debut, ahead of Dumb and Dumber's $16.3 million and There's Something About Mary's $13.7 million. It was also the best opening for a non-sequel, R-rated comedy, besting Life's $20.4 million from last April. Another Eddie Murphy comedy, Beverly Hills Cop II, still holds the R-rated title, with $33 million over a long Memorial Day weekend way back in 1987.

Chicken Run flew the coop with a strong $17.5 million from 2,491 theaters. Dreamworks' creative ad campaign and positive critical notices helped build buzz up to the point that it performed significantly better than was foreseeable just a few weeks ago. It enjoyed a 29% bump-up on Saturday when the norm for a summer family picture on opening weekend is around 10-15%. This suggests that it is reaching past the family demographic to adults, possibly giving these chickens even longer legs.

Though it is being touted as Dreamworks' best opening for an animated picture, edging out Antz' $17.2 million, that picture actually sold more tickets, with an adjusted opening of about $18.6 million. Still, with positive word-of-mouth on its side, Run has a shot at the century mark. It expands by 300-400 theaters on Friday.

On the other hand, Fox is having serious trouble with their animated arm. Titan A.E. had a stunning crash landing, down 60% to $3.7 million. The $75 million production has taken in just $16.9 million so far, and is on track to be the second biggest bomb of the summer, behind another cheesy sci-fi flick, Battlefield Earth.

Meanwhile, Shaft held true to its action and niche roots, falling 41% to $12.7 million and $42.4 million so far. Fox saved some face with the continuing leggy performance of Big Momma's House. It was down just 26% to $8.5 million. With $85.2 million in the till, it's well on its way to saild past the $100 million mark Martin Lawrence in a blockbuster? Who'd a thunk? How many more comedians-in-drag-and-fat-suits pictures will this inspire?

Mission: Impossible 2 eased by 33% to $7.6 million. The cume reached $188.9 million, surpassing the original's unadjusted gross of $181 million and continuing to follow a similar pattern. Gladiator expanded its box office empire, conquering another $3.9 million, down just 28%. With $165.4 million so far, it has already grossed nearly five times its $34.8 million opening weekend. By comparison, the early-May entries of the past two years, Deep Impact and The Mummy, ultimately grossed only about three and a half times their $40 million plus openings.

Overall box office totaled $106.5 million, up 0.4% over last weekend, but down 20% from the dame frame last year when Big Daddy topped the chart with $41.5 million en route to $163.5 million.

Believe it or not, it has been three years since the last time Jim Carrey really made us laugh in a motion picture. Liar Liar was its name, and it was his biggest success as a solo star, opening to $31.4 million and enjoying a leggy run to $181.4 million total. During this time, Carrey baited for Oscar and was completely snubbed with both attempts, Man on the Moon and The Truman Show (which was still arguably the best picture of 1998). His absence has allowed such pretenders to the comedy throne as Adam Sandler and Martin Lawrence to rise.

Me, Myself & Irene marks Carrey's return to full comedic form, re-teaming with his Dumb and Dumber directors, the Farrelly brothers, whose last picture, There's Something About Mary, could have a halo effect on this one.

The R-rating could hurt though, as Carrey's most ardent supporters tend to be young. His only other R-rated picture, Man on the Moon, was his first true bomb, grossing just $34.6 million total. The last time he was mentally unbalanced was in 1996's The Cable Guy. It opened to $19.8 million, petering out quickly to $60.2 million.

The ad campaign has been fairly light on laughs too. The best punchlines were deemed too obscene for TV and trailers. The closest things to a money shot have been when Carrey falls over a rail, bouncing on the way down, and when he throws himself out of a Mustang while driving.

These are just minor problems though. Again, this is Carrey's return. People have been waiting a long time for this. His average opening weekend is $25.8 million, and that's with Man on the Moon's $7.5 million bringing it down. He is one of the few, true box office draws around, and this is exactly the kind of picture that even made him the most bankable star at one point.

Big Momma's House is the closest competitor, but it's entering its fourth weekend and probably won't gross much more than $7 million. Playing at 3,016 theaters, Me, Myself & Irene is certain to win the weekend with an opening likely in the $30 million range.

The only studio besides Disney who seems to have had a modicum of success with animation is Dreamworks. They hope to continue with Chicken Run, a claymation feature from the creators of Wallace & Gromit.

It appears to have a similar offbeat appeal as Babe did. If so, it could have a leggy run as that talking pig picture opened to $8.7 million in August 1995, yet ended up with $63.7 million total.

The ad campaign has expanded considerably in recent weeks, literally opening up with better lighted shots and even successfully spoofing the campaigns of Gladiator and Mission: Impossible 2. Favorite quotes being "It's chicken impossible" and "I don't want to be a pie."

Competition for the family audience is rather light as Dinosaur has fossilized while Titan A.E. and Fantasia 2000 fizzled in their openings last weekend. Escaping from 2,491 coops, Chicken Run is set to rule the family roost with an opening in the mid-to-high teens and a second place finish.

Shaft delivered $21.7 million out of 2,337 theaters in its opening last weekend. Since it's both an action and a niche picture, the black private dick may have shot his load. A 40% drop to $13 million and third place finish could be in store. The original Shaft sold about 15 million tickets in 1971, which would translate to around $77 million today. The new one may have trouble reaching this sum.

Keeping with the tradition of animated sci-fi bombs, Titan A.E. crash landed with just $9.4 million from 2,734 theaters. With no momentum and new pictures eating into its teen and family audiences, it could see a fall in the 40% range.

Boys and Girls reaffirmed the June teen picture curse as it managed just $7 million last weekend. Its pattern is remarkably similar to Can't Hardly Wait from June 1998. That teen flick tumbled 52% in its second frame, and Boys will likely follow suit.

On the comparable weekend last year, Big Daddy answered the question "Who's your daddy?" by raking in $41.5 million en route to $163.5 million, while Tarzan swung into second with $24.1 million, down 30%, on its way to $171.1 million.

It's Shaft's duty, to bring in that box office booty. Like the Mission: Impossible pictures though, about the only thing Shaft seems to have in common with its source material is the theme song. This Shaft is bald and the production looks way too glossy. Worst of all, he's no longer the "black private dick who's the sex machine to all the chicks" as he doesn't get any chicks.

Jackson actually plays the nephew of the original Shaft, Richard Roundtree, who is present to pass on the mantle. But if the purpose of getting a new Shaft was to have a young buck to carry on the franchise, the 51-year old Jackson is only about seven years younger than Roundtree. Why didn't they just make this movie starring the real Shaft? Any lost marquee value would have surely been made up for by lower production costs.

Jackson is certainly one bad mother... (shut yo mouth!), but he's kind of an odd choice for this role. His "furious anger" just doesn't jibe right with the character's smooth operator persona. Off hand, Wesley Snipes would have been a more obvious (and appropriately younger) choice. What's next, Dolemite starring Denzel Washington?

Jackson's previous solo star turns, such as 187, failed to generate much business. When teamed up with a fellow character actor he has fared pretty well. Earlier this year, Rules of Engagement with Tommy Lee Jones opened to $15 million and has grossed about $60 million so far. Perhaps more comparable was 1998's The Negotiator with Kevin Spacey, which opened to $10.2 million en route to $44.7 million. Then again, none of those had the iconic oomph that Shaft has.

Gone in 60 Seconds and Mission: Impossible 2 are the major competitors for the action audience, while Big Momma's House shares the urban one. Shaft, though, is distinctive enough and the marketplace expansive enough that this shouldn't be much of a factor at all.

Playing at a relatively low 2,337 theaters, Shaft don't need them extra venues to get the job done. He could deliver a $20 million plus start and first place finish.

From the director of She's All That (and a Bag of Chips) and the writers of the Dennis Rodman starrer Simon Sez, comes the latest teen sex comedy, Boys and Girls. Quite the pedigree there, eh?

Teen heartthrob Freddie Prinze, Jr. stars in his third picture of this kind in less than a year and a half. He seems like an affable guy with his Keanu Reeves vibe and all, but, dude, he should, like, learn to pick scripts. She's All That came off as a 40-year old writer trying to sound young, using scattershot lingo he's heard through the years such as "copacetic," but coming off as pandering and painfully unoriginal. Nonetheless, it opened in January 1999 to $16.1 million and ended up with $63.4 million total.

Suggesting that that may have been the peak period for this sort of picture, Prinze, Jr.'s next romantic comedy, Down to You, came out a year later amidst no competition. It opened to just $7.6 million and managed just $20 million total. Unlike She's All That, it was set in college and not high school, as is Boys and Girls.

In real life, his love interest in his new picture, Claire Forlani, is about four years older than he is. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but their characters are supposed to be about the same age. Prinze, Jr. looks and acts far younger than his 24 years, making the match-up seem rather bizarre.

The studio seems to assume that it already has the girls engaged with the presence of Prinze, Jr., so they're focusing all of their marketing dollars to convince the guys. So Jason Biggs, the pie poker from American Pie as the wacky womanizing roommate, gets more airtime in the ads. His part was actually beefed up after the picture was finished specifically with the addition of the supermodel scene that is the focal point of the ad campaign.

1998's Can't Hardly Wait was the only teen picture in recent memory to be released at this time of year, when the teens are just getting out of school. It had a punchier ad campaign than Boys but still opened to only $8 million and could hardly wait to leave theaters, petering out at $25.4 million. The marketplace is friendlier to this genre now though, as that was during the infancy of the current teen craze. The reason that studio's tend not to release these kinds of pictures in June is that teens don't want to see a picture set in school when they are just leaving it themselves and are still burnt out by it. Give them a month or so to get over it, and you can have a hit, such as with past July school-set comedies, Clueless and American Pie.

Road Trip, which grossed $4.9 million last weekend, represents the closest competitor. Regardless, Boys and Girls will likely do only modest business in the neighborhood of $10 million from its 1,983 theaters.

Fox's second animated feature Titan A.E. since 1997's Anastasia has the misfortune of having a similar story and tone to last month's debacle, Battlefield Earth. The risky $90 million production blends traditional cell animation for the main characters with CGI for the backgrounds and what not. The studio hopes this and the paucity of sci-fi will attract teen males, an audience that is inclined to regard this as simply a kid's movie. They have plenty of other options as well.

The commercials proclaim that "it's like nothing you've ever seen before," yet then contradictorily say it's like Star Wars meets The Matrix.

If this picture hits, it would be the first of its kind to do so. 80's cult classics Heavy Metal and The Transformers bombed theatrically. Last summer's The Iron Giant was a box office midget for Warner Bros, managing just $23.2 million. Though not animated, last year's Wing Commander went after the same audience and tanked with just $11.6 million total.

This picture sure could have used a bloated screen legend as one of the voices. The Transformers' had Orson Welles as the villain Unicron for Christ's sake! They could have gotten Marlon Brando. He's not too busy. Even Rod Steiger would have sufficed. And instead of using Creed's wannabe power ballad "Higher", they should have used its similar forerunner, the Damn Yankees' "Can You Take Me High Enough." Hell, if you're going to blow a ton of dough on something like this, at least do it in grand cheesmo style. But I digress.

The closest competitor is Dinosaur, which, after dropping precipitously initially, leveled off with $8.8 million last weekend. With the widest launch of the new releases, 2,733 theaters, a modest opening of about $10 million looks to be in store.

Disney re-issues Fantasia 2000 at 1,313 normal theaters after a stunning $49.6 million IMAX run earlier this year. This move, of course, is designed to maintain their animation domination by squelching Fox's Titan A.E. as The Little Mermaid re-issue was designed to do but didn't quite do to Fox's Anastasia. Since it has already made a significant amount of money, its prospects are rather limited. What's more, the IMAX format imbued an event status to this otherwise iffy commercial prospect. In 35mm, this is gone, especially since the first one was more beloved for its unusualness than for actually being entertaining. A gross in the $6 million range and seventh place finish seems to be in store.

Gone in 60 Seconds stole $25.3 million last weekend from 3,006 theaters to take the top spot. The spin machine proclaimed this to be Nicolas Cage's biggest opening and uber-producer Jerry Bruckheimer's biggest non-holiday one, edging out The Rock's $25.1 million. However, adjusting for inflation puts the latter's opening at around $29 million and from 614 fewer theaters. Even Con Air's $24.1 million opening adjusts to about $27 million. Gone's opening was still quite strong, but whether it will reach the century mark remains to be seen. Judging by word-of-mouth, Gone's pattern should follow more closely that of Con Air, which had a 35% second week drop, than the leggy The Rock. Throw in the saturation release and direct competition, and a 40% drop sounds about right, giving it $15 million and a second place finish.

Mission: Impossible 2 was down 36% to $17.23 million last weekend. That's slightly more than the original's 32% drop in the same frame. If it continues to follow a similar pattern, it could drop around 40% this weekend, adding another $10 million in its coffers. Proving its crossover appeal, Big Momma's House was just a smidgen behind, down 33% to $17.22 million. With the comedy market still mostly to itself, it should continue to hold well and gross around $11 million this weekend. That would be enough to push it past Blue Streak's $68.2 million total, making it Martin Lawrence's highest grossing picture yet.

On the comparable weekend last year, Tarzan swung into the top spot with $34.2 million on its way to $171.1 million total, while it was better times for John Travolta as The General's Daughter opened to $22.3 million en route to $102.7 million.

With diminishing returns for Bringing Out the Dead, 8MM and Snake Eyes threatening his $20 million-per-picture pricetag, Nicolas Cage returns to the safe Jerry Bruckheimer/June action pictures that launched him into superstardom a few years ago. With Ferraris, Porsches, Angelina Jolie and other sweet rides in tow, he shifts into an even lower gear with Gone in 60 Seconds, the latest video game posing as a movie. But will its title become a self-fulfilling prophecy for how long it will last in theaters?

This remake of the 1974 cult classic of the same name hopes to take advantage of the fact that there haven't been any car movies in ages, like Gladiator did so successfully with the sword-and-sandals epic. To many, it may be about damn time for a movie that not merely has car chases, but fetishizes the automobile like in the Burt Reynolds pictures Smokey and the Bandit and Cannonball Run (though not quite in the auto-erotic way of David Cronenberg's Crash). The only other car movie in the past ten years was another Bruckheimer production, Days of Thunder, but that was just Top Gun on the race track. The only real fix for this kind of thing came in the 1998 spy thriller Ronin directed by car chase maestro John Frankenheimer.

The ad campaign ends with a sound-effected woman's voice saying "directed by Dominic Sena," begging the question, "Who the hell is Dominic Sena?" His only other credit is the 1993 flop Kalifornia, so this is a non sequitor as he's essentially an unknown that adds nothing to the marquee value other than a cool sounding name intended to make people think this is more substantial stuff than it is. The director doesn't really matter here anyway. After all, this is a Jerry Bruckheimer picture, the uber-producer responsible for the orange-filtered gloss, quick editing and inane "plotlines" of such dreck as Bad Boys and Armageddon.

Back in 1996, the first Cage/Bruckheimer collaboration, The Rock, opened on this same frame against the first Mission: Impossible's third weekend. It grossed $25.1 million on its way to $134.1 million. The following June, Con Air landed with $24.1 million en route to $101.1 million total. Both were rated R, while Gone is PG-13, which seems odd and may mean less mayhem.

Those two pictures benefited from a relative lack of competition for the core male demographic. Gone faces significantly more from other action pictures Mission: Impossible 2, Shanghai Noon and Gladiator and less directly from Big Momma's House and Road Trip.

Nonetheless, adrenalin is pumping and the marketplace is expanding enough for it to take pole position this weekend with an opening in the mid-to-high twenty million range from 3,006 theaters.

Oh so crazy Martin Lawrence found his biggest opening ever in the crevices of Big Momma's House. The cross-dressing, fat suit comedy rang up a massive $25.7 million. In a baffling bit of demographics, 60% of its audience was not male as one might expect, but female. Maybe for some reason they thought it was about misogynist Martin changes his ways after learning what it's like to be a woman. His last picture, Blue Streak, dropped 35% in its second weekend. Given the 80% definite recommend rating Big Momma scored, a similar drop could be in store for around $16.5 million this weekend.

Faced against The Rock, the first M:I dropped 32% to $14.7 million, proving that more than one action picture can reside in the marketplace without necessarily cannibalizing each other too much. Last weekend M:I-2 was down 53% to $27 million, about the same as the 52% hit the first one took in the same frame. Combine the $140 million it has already grossed with mixed word-of-mouth and increased competition and this saturation release could burn-off another 40%. That would give it around $16 million this time out.

Dinosaur is becoming extinct at an alarming rate, especially for a Disney animated picture with minimal direct competition. It was down 52% to $12 million last weekend. It passed the century mark on Wednesday, but with a production budget at a reported $200 million, it is a long way from profit. However, as more and more kids get off from school, it could enjoy somewhat of a leveling off, gobbling up around $7.5 million.

Now, it's time for the obligatory revelry in Battlefield Earth's failure. After plunging 80% to $205,745 last weekend, John Travolta's $73 million pet project is on its way to a final tally of a little over $21 million. And it's bombing overseas as well. Predictable given that there are fewer Scientologists and Travolta fans abroad, but it's not even opening half-way decently like it did here. It scraped up just $1.1 million from seven European markets, including a mere $313,071 and seventh place finish in the United Kingdom.

On the comparable weekend last year, the Austin Powers sequel shagged its way to an amazing $54.9 million opening, more than the original made in its entire run, and ended up with $206 million total.

After a hectic Memorial Day, Hollywood likes to take one last breath before the summer movie season kicks into high gear, usually opening just one wide release of questionable quality. Last year, this weekend brought us Instinct. Two years ago it was Hope Floats. And following in their illustrious path, this year brings us the ever so crazy Martin Lawrence in Big Momma's House, the soul food variant of Mrs. Doubtfire.

You'd think nearly dying from heat exhaustion and dehydration from burying himself in sweats on a hot day last year would keep Lawrence away from anything involving a thick, heavy suit. But this is oh so crazy Martin after all, who probably had some psychological need to relive the event and conquer it metaphorically.

Production started on January 18 of THIS year. That means this picture took just four months to film, edit, test market, etc. Talk about a rush job. After all, the studio had to beat to the punch the similar fat suit schtick of Eddie Murphy in The Nutty Professor 2: The Klumps.

Out of nowhere it seems that Lawrence has become a bankable star, consistently delivering solid grosses for each of the five pictures he's starred in. Blue Streak opened to $19.2 million last September on its way to $68.2 million total, and Life co-starring Murphy opened to $20.4 million last April en route to $64.0 million.

The urban market is one rarely served in a significant way. When they are, they have delivered strong grosses to such recent pictures as Next Friday, The Best Man and the currently playing Love and Basketball in addition to Lawrence's output last year. The trailer certainly delivers a resounding whoop-whoop from its target audience, and its broad comedy should give it significant crossover appeal.

Road Trip and Shanghai Noon represent the closest competition, but they shouldn't be that much of a factor given how expansive the market has been lately. Opening at 2,804 venues, expect audiences to be in tha House with an opening in the high teens.

Since it's playing at 3,653 theaters, the widest release ever, Mission: Impossible 2 is the epitome of the saturation release. As such, everyone who was eager to see it was able to this past weekend, and the $100.1 million it has already made in its first eight days suggests that they did. Throw in the inherently front-loaded nature of sequels and the mixed word-of-mouth, and M:I-2 will likely take a steep dive.

Other post-Memorial Day drop-offs include 36% for The Phantom Menace, 59% for Godzilla, and, more comparable, 52% for The Lost World: Jurassic Park. The first Mission: Impossible also fell 52%. Look for M:I-2 to have another number one finish and a gross in the mid-to-high $20 million range.

Meanwhile, Jackie Chan's Shanghai Noon has some positive word-of-mouth going for it after a surprisingly strong $19.6 million bow. A drop of 30% would give it about $11 million this weekend.

On the comparable weekend last year, the aforementioned Instinct opened to $10.4 million en route to a $34.1 million total. Star Wars: The Phantom Menace remained on top for the third weekend in row with $32.9 million.