July 1999

Runaway Bride starring Julia Roberts is the first romantic comedy since, well, Notting Hill starring Julia Roberts. The ads feature that Police song, "Every Breath You Take." Odd choice as the song's about a stalker, right? Paramount is putting it out on 3,158 theaters, the widest release ever for a romantic comedy. This Pretty Woman reunion of Roberts, Richard Gere and director Garry Marshall has no direct competition and should easily break the $21.8 million opening weekend record for this genre set two months ago by Notting Hill. It should easily take the top spot for the week as well.

After a drought, there has been a glut of scary movies recently, so Deep Blue Sea doesn't have it so easy. Lake Placid beat it to the punch, though it was more of a comedy and is no longer a contender. The Haunting also beat it and had a surprisingly enormous opening, thanks in part to a PG-13 rating. Now The Blair Witch Project is going wide after a phenomenal limited run and with the zeitgeist on its side. Both Blair and Deep are R rated, and, unfortunately for them, exhibitors have been enforcing the rating. So something's got to give. Usually it's those late to the party. The box office tends to expand to accommodate multiple big releases, however this is only when they have different demographics.

Here's how I think it'll turn out. In addition to the competition, mixed word-of-mouth should contribute to The Haunting plummeting over 50%. However, that should still be enough to outdo the rest. Opening at 2,854 theaters, Deep Blue Sea should closely follow. It's a thrill ride that will likely satisfy the action crowd. The Blair Witch Project should come in a bit further behind, but it's only opening at around 1,000 theaters. It will have the highest average of the week yet again.

This has been a record-breaking summer, but what it has lacked so far is a pure action picture. It's surprising that no studio has yet taken advantage of this void.

Two remakes dominated the box office this past weekend. They were so transparently bad that I thought the public would ignore them, but I was wrong.

The only thing scary about The Haunting was its opening weekend. It exceeded everyone's expectations and grossed $33.4 million. I was way off with my prediction. Hey, it happens occasionally. Perhaps I let my disdain for it get in the way of objectively determining its potential. After all, there certainly was enough room for it and it didn't have significant direct competition. Furthermore, that PG-13 rating allowed kids to get in without hassle. Meanwhile, Inspector Gadget grossed a strong $21.9 million. It benefited more than expected from being the first major kids targeted picture in a month.

The Blair Witch Project had yet another astounding weekend, only this time with a bit of controversy. The weekend gross was reported as $2 million from 31 theaters. That amounts to a $63,812 average, 14% higher than last weekend's phenomenal $56,002 average. Now, averages tend to drop rather than rise when theaters are added. Apparently, to achieve this they added screens to existing theaters. That's what boosted the average. The strange thing is that the daily grosses were reported as $456,215 on Friday and $519,500 on Saturday. That would give it a weekend total of around $1.5 million, not $2 million. Perhaps the dailies were misreported.

Eyes Wide Shut took an even bigger hit than expected, plummeting 54% to $10.1 million. It looks like it's on track to top out at around $65 million.

I'm a late with this report due to lack of time and a case of writer's block in regards to this week's new releases. What a boring weekend. Unless the older movies show extraordinary holds, business could be well below the average. Of course, there is plenty of room for the openers to make a killing, but come on, who really wants to see The Haunting or Inspector Gadget? Yet each is getting released at over 2,800 theaters.

The Haunting is the second horror remake of the summer and seems to also be the second to not understand what made the original scary. The first was The Mummy, which mistook excessive CGI for actual horror and suspense. The Haunting apparently suffers the same problem, only moreso as it doesn't have the adventure trappings to fall back on like the former. "Some movies are born bad." I bet this play on the movie's slogan has been used to headline some of its bad reviews. Needless to say, I don't see this picture doing terribly well, especially in relation to its $80 million budget. I think many will be waiting to get their chills from The Blair Witch Project when it opens at a theater near them.

Meanwhile, Disney seems to be positioning Inspector Gadget in a similar way as they did George of the Jungle two years ago. I have no idea what the buzz on the playground is, but this picture looks terrible. I used to watch the show on occasion back in the 80's. This movie seems to stray from it significantly. First off, it looks like they made Gadget somewhat competent. But the point of the show was that he was completely oblivious, while it was his niece, Penny, and her dog, Brain, who actually solved the cases. They show Claw too! In the series, only his metal hand (and not a pincher like in the movie) was ever seen from behind that chair. And where is his cat? Where is the police chief who always gets stuck with the self-destructing messages? It's fine to make some changes for the big screen, but it's just plain wrong to deviate from the essence of the source material, only using its superficial trappings. So Disney has alienated fans of the show, leaving them only with little kids, who still might prefer to see Tarzan or The Phantom Menace for the umpteenth time.

New Line is dumping the delayed Drop Dead Gorgeous at just 1,207 theaters. What was the point of giving this picture a high profile release date if they weren't going to give it a high profile release? Oh well, look for it to perform accordingly.

Meanwhile, mixed word-of-mouth and the die hards having already rushed out to see it should cause Eyes Wide Shut to have a precipitous drop. Lake Placid should also take a similar hit. I finally saw it and found it hilarious. My favorite movie of the summer so far, though I haven't seen many. The thing is, many might have went into it expecting to be scared so it probably has received mixed word-of-mouth.

Star Wars: The Phantom Menace is poised to hit the $400 million mark no later than Saturday. That would be it's 67^th day of release, narrowly missing Titanic's 66-day record.

Anyway, next week should be much more interesting as Runaway Bride and Deep Blue Sea open, and The Blair Witch Project goes wide.

Eyes Wide Shut opened with a solid $21.7 million from 2,411 theaters, $1.1 million less than Warner Bros.' $22.8 million estimate. It was below Tom Cruise's average, and it didn't match the hype. It was even less than The General's Daughter's $22.3 million, which had much less hype and lower star power. Mixed word-of-mouth and an increasingly crowded marketplace will likely keep it from reaching the $100 million mark.

The Saturday bump up was 5.7%, quite low for an adult appeal picture. It has been suggested that the JFK Jr. incident contributed to this. I would like this to be the case, because that would mean my $26.5 million prediction was closer to the actual demand. However, I don't think many adults cared enough to be glued to the TV all day. If they did, then why didn't such pictures as The General's Daughter and Notting Hill suffer too? I think what really happened was that Eyes Wide Shut had a strong core audience who had to see it opening day, resulting in that low Saturday bump up.

The picture does have promising overseas prospects though, and it should end up being profitable if Warner Bros.' reported $65 million budget is accurate. I find it suspect though, given how long it took to shoot and how the Cruises' probably took up $25 million or more of it alone.

This third Cruise/Kidman collaboration is also their third to post less than expected numbers. They first worked together on Days of Thunder, which grossed $82.7 million in 1990. Though that was a solid performance, it was seen as a disappointment because of its budget and Cruise's previous hits. Their second picture and first with Kidman's name above the title, Far and Away, came after a long hiatus for Cruise. It was a miss by his lofty standards, grossing $58.9 million.

Now I don't want the preceding to be taken as an attack on Eyes Wide Shut. I received some email from people thinking I was attacking the Wild Wild West two weeks ago, so I would like to curb any email regarding my Eyes Wide Shut analysis. In both instances, I've merely reported on their box office performances realistically, and have made no mention of their quality. I will admit that I have no intention of seeing Wild Wild West because it looks like crap and because I'm not a Fresh Prince fan. I will see probably Eyes Wide Shut though.

Meanwhile, The Blair Witch Project had by far the most impressive opening of the weekend. The hype and the buzz proved to be amazingly effective as the picture grossed $1.5 million from just 27 theaters. That's an astounding $56,002 per theater average. Distributor Artisan paid $1 million for the rights to the $25,000 picture. Combine that with a low budget campaign that's letting the internet and media do the bulk of the advertising, and this could become one of the most profitable pictures of the year.

Lake Placid got in there right before The Haunting and Deep Blue Sea and made its money, enjoying an $11 million opening. It will likely fade quickly though. I tried to see it this weekend, but it was surprisingly sold out, probably because it was only on one screen. So I saw American Pie instead. It was the sort of movie where you miss many of the lines because the audience is laughing so loudly. That's why it was a bit surprising that it fell 28% to $13.6 million. Though solid, I expected a stronger hold. It still has a shot at $100 million and will be very profitable for Universal.

The Wood scored with its urban demographic, making $8.5 million from 1,191 theaters. Its $7,150 per theater average was second only to Eyes Wide Shut among the top ten. The picture should also be profitable as it cost just $6 million to produce and had a light, though focused, marketing campaign.

Baby did a bad, bad thing… Baby did a bad, bad thing. Who else finds themselves singing these lines from the raspy Chris Isaak song? It's certainly catchy… Speaking of which, anyone see that Eyes Wide Shut clip with Tom Cruise surrounded by the secret sex society? The grand pubaa decked out in that freaky red cloak and mask utters this line to Cruise from his throne: "Remove your clothes." I find myself repeating that line quite often. It's hilarious the way that guy says it. It has catch phrase of the summer potential.

Anyway, the picture opens at 2,411 theaters and has a running time of 159 minutes, so it won't have as many showtimes as some other movies out there. However, the similarly long and R-rated Saving Private Ryan set a precedent when it opened with $30.6 million from 2,463 theaters at about the same time last year. Now, I don't see an artsy, erotic picture as having the same appeal as a good old war drama, but Tom Cruise's pictures of the 1990's have opened to around $24 million on average. I think the mystery, the hype, and his return from a long absence should be good enough to give him an above average opening.

Meanwhile, Lake Placid should benefit from being the first campy creature feature in a while. Surprisingly, this one is at the top of my must see list for the weekend. I know many would consider that blasphemy given the presence of the Kubrick picture, but I'm in the mood to have fun. Besides this picture was written by David Kelley, the man behind my favorite television shows, The Practice, Ally McBeal, and Chicago Hope. I also think others feel the same way, and that this picture will have relatively strong business over the weekend. By the way, I wonder if anyone has used this as a headline for a bad review: Lake Flaccid. It seems to me that the title is just begging for it.

The Wood is the first urban appeal picture in a while. It looks kind of like a cross between Friday and Soul Food, so it should have an opening somewhere between those two. It should also end up with the second highest per theater average of the weekend.

Though Muppets From Space only has direct competition from Tarzan, its lackluster ad campaign has made it a non-event. I see it having a worse opening than the last Muppet movie, Muppet Treasure Island, which opened with $7.9 million en route to a $34.3 million total.

Grossing $18.7 million, American Pie shot to the top spot this past weekend. Pretty damn good, especially for a picture that cost just $11 million to make. It turns out that the picture could have made more. Unfortunately, theaters were enforcing the R rating, forcing many kids to pay for tickets for other movies, and then sneak into Pie. As a result, pictures like Big Daddy, Austin Powers, and even Wild Wild West held up better then they would normally have. I remember back when I was a teenager, I went to see the NC-17 rated Bad Lieutenant, and I was not carded. Just recently, I went to see an R rated picture, and I was carded. The whole situation is ridiculous.

With $7.5 million, Arlington Road performed modestly as expected. The thriller averaged $4,608 per theater, which is rather decent considering its relatively low profile and how long it has been shelved. The production budget was around $31 million, but Sony paid considerably less to acquire distribution rights from the now defunct Polygram, so it could be rather profitable for them.

Reflecting the lack of a new event picture, overall box office was down around 7% from last week and the same time last year when Lethal Weapon 4 opened with $34 million.

American Pie arrives with the designation of being the sleeper of the summer. Isn’t that an oxymoron though? I mean, if everyone thinks it will hit and everyone wants to see it, can it really be called a sleeper? After all, a sleeper is, by definition, a picture that takes people by surprise and becomes a hit. This picture will not surprise me if it shoots to the top spot. The apple pie scene of the trailer has captured the audience's attention like few have. It was a real money shot, without costing the studio much money to make.

The R rating will limit its potential audience. But unless theaters truly are enforcing it, I don't think it will affect the box office significantly. Many of those slasher flicks had R ratings and big openings, most notably Scream 2's $32.9 million. Earlier this year, Varsity Blues and Cruel Intentions had R ratings, and both opened to $15.2 and $13 million respectively. Surely, American Pie has been more anticipated by the youth than those two. What concerns me though, is that after I made my prediction, I found out that, though it got a decent 2,507 theater count, it may not have gotten a decent screen count. In some areas, it doesn't appear to be playing in prime locations. Perhaps, like with South Park, some exhibitors may be trying to bury it in an attempt to avoid heat from the "blame-the-movies-for-all-our-problems" trend.

Opening at just 1,631 theaters, the long delayed Arlington Road arrives with little fanfare. The General's Daughter may have satiated the public's thriller craving, and Jeff Bridges and Tim Robbins, as respected as they may be, are pretty much box office poison. But despite this, I think the marketing has been fairly solid and the picture should have a decent, if modest, opening.

Overall, box office should be down considerably from previous weeks, as most pictures out there are aging or fading fast. Also, contributing to the decrease in business will be the lack of a new, mass appeal event picture. It's kind of strange that no studio took advantage of this and opened something big. Instead they opted to crowd the coming weekends. Perhaps the other studios were expecting Wild Wild West to be much more dominating than it turned out to be.

The spin is well underway… "Audiences go Wild over West." "Wild Wild West provides box office fireworks." "West is Best." The Warner Bros. distribution president was quoted as saying "We are very, very pleased with the gross." The second "very" was probably added to convince himself more than us.

Contrary to the headlines, contrary to Access Hollywood and its ilk, contrary to what the WB wants you to believe, the fact of the matter is that Wild Wild West is one hell of a disappointment. The picture grossed $27.7 million over the weekend ($49.7 million the first six days), far short of Independence Day's and Men in Black's $50 million + weekends. You know the studio was hoping for an opening similar to those previous Will Smith July 4^th bonanzas. They wouldn't have spent over $200 million in production and marketing costs if they didn't. They wouldn't have given it the widest opening weekend release ever (3,342 theaters) if they didn't.

Up until now, every major summer release has had a huge opening weekend. Something had to give. The box office pie was not going to expand much further, and Wild Wild West became the first major casuality.

Meanwhile, South Park grossed $11.3 million over the three-day weekend ($23.1 million it's first six days). The daily pattern suggests that it will burn out quickly as pictures with cult followings usually do. However, with a production budget of $21 million, it will be profitable, whereas Wild Wild West will probably not.

Playing at 3,304 theaters, Wild Wild West managed to open with just $7.07 million on Wednesday. This means that the picture might not even match my $37.5 million weekend prediction. By comparison, Will Smith's previous July extravaganzas, Men in Black and Independence Day opened with $14.04 and $17.41 million respectively, and that was after having Tuesday night previews. The same time last year, Armageddon opened with $9.67 million and went on to make $36.1 million Friday-to-Sunday (though this was muted due to the Fourth of July falling on a Saturday).

Warner Bros. executives have given the usual spin by saying they are pleased with the opening. But, really, they're not. How could they be? This picture reportedly had a $160-180 million budget. Add in the massive marketing campaign, and the overall cost was probably around $210-230 million. So if the picture continues to perform at this rate, it will be lucky to break even in the long run.

Meanwhile, South Park grossed a strong $4.85 million from 2,128 theaters, giving it a higher per theater average than Wild Wild West. However, since it has more of a cult following it should see an above average drop on Thursday.