July 2000

The nation's fascination with comedians in fat suits continued as The Nutty Professor II gobbled up $42.5 million from 3,242 theaters. The Klump sum exceeded Big Momma's House's $25.7 million from two months ago and the first Nutty's $25.4 million.

The $65 million sequel beat out Beverly Hills Cop II's $33 million 1987 four-day opening to become a career best for fat cat Eddie Murphy. What's more, it eked past Scary Movie's $42.3 million to be the heftiest comedy opening of the year and second best of all time behind the Austin Powers sequel's $54.9 million from last summer.

What Lies Beneath crept into second place, losing a mere 23% for $22.9 million. With $69.4 million in the till, it's definitely striking a chord with its target audience of adult women who have been mostly ignored all summer. It's a costly hit though with a budget of around $100 million, not to mention the sizable cuts of the gross for Harrison Ford and director Robert Zemeckis.

X-Men leveled off some, but still continues to descend at an alarming rate. The Marvel-ous mutants abated by 46% to $12.7 million, though ending up with $1.2 million more than what Fox estimated. This suggests that its appeal was more niche than its $54.5 million opening indicated, and that it isn't extending much beyond the fanboy brigade. Still, with a cume of $122.9 million after 17 days and likely $150 million finish, that's some niche.

Thomas & the Magic Railroad thought it could, thought it could, but, gosh darn it, just plum ran out of steam with $4.2 million from 2,106 stations and $6.6 million in its caboose. It could have been much worse though, considering that the picture almost exclusively appeals to toddlers and the reduced ticket prices that go with them. The budget was low enough and related promotion from this release high enough, that Destination Films should recoup through video sales.

Under the prodigious weight of The Klumps, Scary Movie took its biggest hit to date, down 45% to $8.3 million and $132.1 million total. By next Saturday, it should surpass Good Will Hunting's $138.4 million to become the top grosser in Miramax's history.

Pokemon plunged 68% to $6.2 million for $33.1 million to date, putting it on course to end up with roughly half of The First Movie's $85.7 million. Glory Hallelujah! The fad is dead! But, wait, before the celebration gets into full swing, Warner Bros. does plan to release, gasp, a third one next spring. After all, this one cost just $5 million to acquire, making it profitable from its domestic theatrical release alone despite the precipitous decline.

Meanwhile, The Patriot became the ninth picture of the year to surpass the century mark. It retreated by 29% to $4.4 million and $101.2 million to date. Other holdovers rebounded after serious declines last weekend, including The Perfect Storm and The Kid easing by just 22% each. Chicken Run was down 25% to $3.4 million and should join the $100 million club in a couple of weeks on its merry way to becoming DreamWorks' biggest family hit yet.

The Nutty opening wasn't enough to boost overall business though. The top 12 pictures totaled $117.3 million, down 8% from last weekend and down 16% from the same frame last year when Runaway Bride topped the chart with $35.1 million en route to $152.3 million total.

Next weekend finds Hollywood clamoring to repeat the crowded yet blockbuster frame from last year when The Sixth Sense opened. Jerry Bruckheimer just won't go away after Gone in 60 Seconds. The uber-producer strikes again with the buxom barmaids of Coyote Ugly, hearkening back to his first blockbuster success Flashdance. Sony hopes Hollow Man will help fill the void in their bank account left after several years of mostly flops. While Warner Bros. launches Clint Eastwood's Space Cowboys with surprisingly little fanfare given the high concept and star power involved.

The Klumps loom large over the box office this weekend as the second fat-suit comedy of the season. The first being Big Momma's House, starring Martin Lawrence doing similar schtick as his mentor Eddie Murphy did in The Nutty Professor. It has even performed in a similar manner, opening with $25.7 million and likely ending its run with about $120 million. The early June release date was a calculated move on Fox's part, involving an accelerated production process, in order to get the jump on Universal's Nutty sequel.

But has Big Momma satiated or merely whetted audiences' appetite for this kind of humor? Could it be that they were biding their time with Big Momma until the bigger Klumps plopped on the screen? Hey, five times the fat suits equals five times the funny! Or so the rationale might go.

After all, similar pictures doing blockbuster business in the same season is not unprecedented. Two "things-falling-from-the-sky" pictures besieged the summer of 1998. The latter one, Armageddon, outdid the first, Deep Impact, by 43%. Last summer sustained two Julia Roberts romantic comedies, Notting Hill and Runaway Bride, with the latter again making more. Not to mention a glut of horror movies within weeks of each other.

The Nutty Professor II finds the enormously talented Murphy both ambitiously playing six different characters, yet at the same time resting on his laurels. It goes without saying how downright derivative the picture is. After all, it's the sequel to the remake of the Jerry Lewis picture of the same name, which itself was a comedic remake of Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde. What's more, it prominently features jokes recycled from past Murphy pictures. From Trading Places, it takes the one where the unlikable guy falls victim to the amorous advances of an animal, this time instead of a gorilla it's a giant guinea pig (which is also reminiscent of Dr. Dolittle). When Grandma Klump seduces Buddy Love, it's simply a more grotesque version of Eartha Kitt's scenes from Boomerang.

Once the top draw at the domestic box office, years of bad movies took a toll on Murphy's clout. He bottomed out with Beverly Hills Cop III and Vampire in Brooklyn in the mid-90's. The $128.8 million grossing Nutty Professor was the first picture of the decade to perform close to the level he was accustomed to in the '80s. Witnessing the $144.2 million success of Dr. Dolittle side-by-side with the further failures of Metro, Holy Man and Bowfinger seemed to cement that he now couldn't have an unmitigated hit outside of 1960's remakes. Both of which even out-grossed their domestic tallies overseas, unusual for him. Hence this Nutty sequel and a Dolittle one in the works. There was talk a while back that he would return to stand-up. Too bad that never came to fruition as the visceral experience of live performance could have shaken him out of his complacency. He's never been as funny or as vital as he was back in his Delirious days.

Breaking down the first Nutty Professor remake, a $25.4 million was achieved from 2,115 theaters back in 1996. Adjusting for inflation, that equals around $29 million today and a $148 million total.

Lately, event-style sequels have been doing far better than the traditional "60% of the original." The most salient example is last summer's Austin Powers sequel. It opened to $54.9 million from 3,312 theaters, equaling what the original did in its entire run, going on to quadruple it with a $206 million total. Now, quadrupling an already blockbuster sum is damn near impossible, but this precedent is encouraging for Nutty II's chances to possibly double the opening weekend take of the first, especially since its opening at 53% more theaters, 3,242 (and 4,430 screens).

Other sequels' performances that bode well for it include Toy Story 2 and Mission: Impossible 2, both of which not only blew away the originals' openings but out-grossed their inflation-adjusted totals as well. Though technically not a sequel but germane due to opening on the same frame last year, the Pretty Woman reunion Runaway Bride started with a $35.1 million weekend, a record for the romantic comedy genre and far greater than the original's $11.3 million.

Further in Nutty II's favor, the decidedly lowbrow humor certainly appeals to the target audience that made a smash hit out of Scary Movie among others, only the PG-13 rating makes it more inclusive. All told, expect The Klumps to gorge on their own weight in money, easily smooshing the competition with a $50 million range opening.

Prior to Thomas & the Magic Railroad, fledgling studio Destination Films has released three pictures: Bats, Eye of the Beholder, and Drowning Mona. The box office performances of which make it a wonder that they haven't filed Chapter 11 yet. Now, with, a brand name kid flick of PBS fame, they hope to have their first hit or at least their first picture to hit the black.

Production values aren't much better than on the TV show, making it more an extended episode than anything else. Then again, producers must have been aware what a tough sell that talking trains that don't move their lips but roll their eyes would be to anyone but the devout. Plus, such cost cutting didn't hurt the Pokemon movies.

By comparison, PBS cohort and butt-of-many-a-joke Barney grossed $11.1 million in his 1998 Great Adventure, though the highest theater count reached was 839. Last July, Muppets from Space had a $1 million Wednesday opening. That led to a $4.8 million weekend from 2,265 theaters en route to $16.6 million total. Thomas looks like it could do similar numbers, making it the little engine that couldn't. Its Wednesday opening of $1.4 million from 2,054 theaters bears this out, suggesting an opening weekend in the $5 million range. The good news for Destination, though, is that it's plenty enough promotion to vault video sales to solid numbers.

What Lies Beneath unabashedly gave away most of its plot points in its trailer a la the similarly female-skewing Double Jeopardy. Nonetheless or perhaps because of this, it was the champ last weekend with $29.7 million. Last year, The Haunting collapsed by 54% in its second frame, while the Sixth Sense lost a mere 3%. What Lies Beneath's appeal probably lies somewhere in between. Further mitigating potential loss is that its older female audience tends not to rush out entirely on the first weekend. Therefore, it could likely ease by around 35% to $19 million and second place.

X-Men plunged 57% last weekend from its lofty opening, but still managed to pass the century mark in 11 days flat. Some leveling off should be in store for the mutants Marvel. A drop of about 45% would give it $13 million and third place.

Pokemon's going the way of the Power Ranger as the sequel's first five days totaled $23.6 million. That's far behind The First Movie's monstrous $50.8 million from last November. The fact that kids are free to see the sequel during the week should expedite its downfall. Sequels almost invariably have steeper declines anyway. The first one dropped 60%, so a 65% drop would mean the sequel pockets around $7 million. Despite its imminent demise, it should be profitable for Warner Bros. given the low budget.

The same frame last year was a then summertime record breaker. The aforementioned Runaway Bride walked away with a $35.1 million opening from 3,158 theaters, eventually earning $152.3 million total. The Blair Witch Project expanded to 1,101 theaters and grossed an astonishing $29.2 million. Word-of-mouth snuffed it out though, and it ended up with $140.5 million despite reaching 2,538 theaters. Another scary movie, Deep Blue Sea sunk its teeth into $19.1 million and third place, ultimately consuming $73.6 million total. The Haunting and Inspector Gadget rounded out the top five with $15.4 and $14.1 million respectively, down 54% and 35% in their second outings.

DreamWorks must love the third weekend after the Fourth of July. They've successfully launched three pictures on it in their short history. In 1998, it was Saving Private Ryan with $30.6 million. Last year, it was The Haunting with $33.4 million. Now, it's What Lies Beneath with $29.7 million from 2,813 theaters.

The $80 million supernatural thriller took advantage of being the first of its genre for the season, promising to creep people out much in the same way The Sixth Sense as did last year. What's more, the paying for one's infidelity theme appealed to the same crowd as such pictures as Double Jeopardy and Fatal Attraction. This bears out in the demographics, as 61% of the audience was female, while 64% were over 25. The star power involved certainly didn't hurt either.

Harrison Ford and Michelle Pfeiffer were in dire need of a hit after a string of bombs, including Random Hearts for him and The Story of Us for her. It's the fourth best debut of Ford's headlining roles, behind Air Force One's $37.1 million and the Indiana Jones sequels' respective $33.9 and $37 million Memorial holiday openings. Furthermore, it's Pfeiffer's best opening aside from Batman Returns.

X-Men's reign turned out to be short-lived. Despite its record-breaking $54.5 million last weekend and being generally well liked, it plummeted 57% to $23.5 million taking its cume to just shy of the century mark. This shows that the drooling fanboys satiated their desire to see it on the opening weekend. By comparison, Batman Returns and Forever each dropped around 45% in their second weekends, while Batman & Robin plunged 63%.

Rejoice! The Pokemon fad has faded, as the sequel opened to $19.6 million from 2,752 theaters, $1.9 million less than Warner Bros.' estimate. That's just 63% of The First Movie's $31 million last November (which had already grossed $20 million after opening on the Wednesday before). The sequel should fall off as precipitously as the first, if not more so.

Loser's title turned out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as it opened to $6 million from 2,016 theaters. The marketing campaign was rather Clueless as the ads lacked any laughs, contributing to the failure despite being released on the same weekend as that popular teen flick was five years ago. Even with a budget of $20 million, profitability will likely be elusive.

Meanwhile, The In Crowd just wasn't popular, opening outside the top ten with $1.5 million from 1,357 theaters. Warner Bros.' campaign was certainly indicated a dumping, with no critics' screenings and ads hiding everything but the camp. It's baffling that this thing was even released in theaters.

In general, holdovers suffered substantial drop-offs. Scary Movie's 42% decline to $15.1 million was to be expected, but such crowd-pleasers as The Perfect Storm and The Patriot took their biggest hits yet, down 43% and 41% respectively. Even family favorite Chicken Run tumbled 42% to $4.6 million, possibly as a result of the Pokemon opening.

The top 12 pictures totaled $127.3 million, down 12% from last weekend but up 12% over the same frame last year when The Haunting opened in first en route to $91.2 million total.

Next weekend, the second fat suit comedy of the season opens after the blockbuster success of Big Momma's House. Eddie Murphy again plays several roles in The Nutty Professor II: The Klumps, and is poised to have the best opening in his career. The first one grossed $128.8 million back in 1996. Meanwhile, fledgling studio Destination hopes to have its first hit with kid flick Thomas and the Magic Railroad.

Hoping to repeat the success they had with The Haunting on the same weekend last year, DreamWorks opens another horror picture, What Lies Beneath, a sort of Fatal Attraction-meets-The Sixth Sense. This time they added a healthy dose of star power from Harrison Ford, Michelle Pfeiffer and director Robert Zemeckis, whose last picture was 1997's Contact.

Ford's been in a slump lately as, in the past five years, only Air Force One's $173 million gross was befitting of his perceived box office stature. Last year, he suffered one of the biggest bombs of his career with Random Hearts ($31.1 million total). Overall, his 90's output has been mired in ponderousness and somberness. That's why he's always pestered about doing another Indiana Jones. People want to see him smile and swagger again, confidently and not uncomfortably like in Six Days, Seven Nights. Even in his 1980's dramas like Witness and The Mosquito Coast, there was some verve there. What Lies Beneath doesn't appear to be a change for the better though, but it is a thriller, something people like to see him in.

Ford found box office success before with another mystery involving the effects of infidelity as Presumed Innocent grossed $86.3 million back in 1990. Air Force One opened on the same weekend in 1997, and Ford's other big hits this past decade have been late summer entries as well, The Fugitive and Clear and Present Danger.

Pfeiffer has never been big box office, peaking in the mid-nineties with Batman Returns, Dangerous Minds and others. Lately, she's starred in a parade of bombs, such as The Deep End of the Ocean ($13.5 million) and The Story of Us ($27.1 million). The failure of those, though, was more due to their similarities to TV movies-of-the-week than to the public's tiring of her. Pfeiffer as haus-frau just doesn't appeal. When she's possessed in Beneath though, it's a return to the cat-like sultriness that made her a star to begin with.

The marketing campaign has been rather subdued overall, almost anti-climactic given the picture's pedigree. One ad's voiceover says "Some men cheat and get caught. Some men pay a higher price." Then this cheesy guitar riff kicks in, making it look like a total camp-fest. The closing clip, that's consistent throughout the campaign, hits the target though. Hovering over Ford by a candlelight, Pfeiffer utters "I think she's starting to suspect something," Ford says "Who?," then she leans forward, an eerie glimmer in her eye, as she purrs "Your wife." The trailer seems to give much away, but is exciting nonetheless. Double Jeopardy, appealing to a similar demographic, seemed to give away everything in its ad campaign, and it was the surprise smash of the Fall, opening to $23.2 million and reaching $116.7 million.

Last year, The Haunting's $33.4 million opening was the start of the biggest horror boom in recent history, as The Sixth Sense, The Blair Witch Project and others followed. Circumstances were different then, with a long horror drought preceding it, some phenomenal marketing campaigns and the millennial anxiety. Still, Beneath should benefit from being the first real scary movie of the season. Appeal doesn't appear to be as broad as The Haunting's though. It skews more towards older women who tend not to rush out, likely muting the opening weekend slightly.

Like The Sixth Sense and Double Jeopardy before it, this is a picture that, based on its premise and ad campaign, looks like it shouldn't make any money, but most likely will. Haunting more than 2,500 theaters, What Lies Beneath could reach the mid-twenty million range, likely lying beneath X-Men for second place.

The seizure-inducing, poorly animated Pokemon returns to the big screen just eight months after the first movie, presumably to kill whatever brain cells remain in its zombie-fied kiddie following.

The First Movie had the biggest non-summer Wednesday opening last November with $10.1 million, and then made $31 million over the weekend. Its total after five days was $50.8 million, or 59% of the $85.7 million it ended up with. Warner Bros. is repeating the card giveaway strategy that beefed up that opening. Couple that with the summer Friday opening, and the second movie is a real wild card.

Maybe its just wishful thinking, but it seems that the fad has faded. X-Men probably satiated many kids, leaving fewer chomping at the bit for this. Furthermore, parents will hopefully be less apt to take the tykes this time now that they know what they are getting themselves into after sitting through the first one.

For a kiddie fad comparison, the sequel to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opened to $20 million from 2,868 theaters a year after the first one did $25.4 million from 2,006. It ended up with $78.7 million, 58% of the original's $135.3 million. The second Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers grossed just $8.1 million, nearly two years after the first did $37.8 million.

Warner Bros. may sense the fad's imminent demise as they are opening it at 2,752 theaters, when they opened the first one at 3,043. Sequels almost invariably get more screens than the original. On the other hand, the summer has thus far been devoid of a truly dominant kid picture as Dinosaur died out quickly, Chicken Run has been more of a sleeper, and the rest have just bombed. Furthermore, it's opening in the George of the Jungle/Inspector Gadget slot that Disney left open. So an opening in the mid-twenty million range seems to be in store, then again this thing is way out of my radar.

Loser's title begs one to say "winner" or "loser" in reference to its box office. I'll try to resist such an obvious quip. The romantic comedy stars American Pie alumni Jason Biggs and Mena Suvari under the direction of Amy Heckerling, whose uneven filmography ranges from Fast Times at Ridgemont High to Look Who's Talking Too. Her last picture, Clueless, opened on this same weekend back in 1995 to $10.6 million. The teeny bopper remake of Jane Austen's Emma ended up with $56.6 million. Its influence was far greater than its box office though, as it paved the way for the current teen craze and lead to other teeny bopper-ized versions of classic literature, such as Cruel Intentions (Les Liaisons Dangeureuses) and 10 Things I Hate About You (The Taming of the Shrew).

Biggs co-starred last month in another teen appeal, college-set romantic comedy, Boys and Girls. It opened to $7 million from 1,983 theaters and will likely end its run with just $21 million. Loser has a release date more conducive to success with teens, but, like Boys, it has nary a laugh among the many attempts in its marketing campaign. Two of the jokes are merely pop culture references to Fargo and the Backdoor Boys (which will make the picture not age well if representative of the whole). Another one has the main character say "chill in" instead of "out." Now, it may be funny contextually, but it just comes off as too strained and obvious to work in the ads. And, of course, there's that ska music that's always playing over these kinds of pictures.

Scary Movie and The In Crowd represent the closest competition for its teen girl target. Opening at 2,016, Loser won't take all, likely debuting out of the top five with a modest $6-7 million.

The In Crowd should be the real loser though. It wasn't screened for critics, and the ad campaign has that "pre-destined to tank" vibe. Warner Bros. also released the similarly advertised Gossip earlier this year. It opened to just $2.3 million en route to $5.1 million. Crowd made $662,495 on Wednesday, likely translating to a bit more than that other teen exploitation flick. It's rated PG-13 though, so it probably doesn't have the explicitness required to make up for its other deficiencies. Alas, no three-ways a la Wild Things. Just a few years ago, trash like this would have made next to nothing, such as the Luke Perry starrer Terminal Bliss did. Today, it will likely more than double that, say, an opening in the $3 million range from 1,357 theaters, hopefully placing the In Crowd out of the top ten though.

X-Men turned out to be the picture that released all of the pent-up demand for an event this summer. Both fanboys and people with lives rushed to see it. Since the industry slavishly follows the tracking and other services provided by the notorious N.R.G., it was stunned by the $54.5 million, as tracking suggested the high twenty million range, 35 at most. Word-of-mouth and buzz over its business should contribute to a better than average hold for the genre this weekend. Look for a Marvel-ous gross in the thirty million range, as the X-Men fend off all contenders to remain in the top spot.

Scary Movie should drop another 40% or so to the $15 million range, pushing it past $100 million and past any of the Scream movies. The Perfect Storm should round out the top five with around $11 million if it abates by another 35% or so.

Over the same frame last year, the aforementioned Haunting spooked $33.4 million for first place, yet failed to reach the vaunted century mark, petering out at $91.2 million. Inspector Gadget came in second with $21.9 million but eventually out-grossed it, reaching $97.4 million total. Eyes Wide Shut collapsed by 54% to $10.1 million on its way to $55.7 million. Meanwhile, Drop Dead Gorgeous opened in eleventh with an ugly $4 million en route to $10.6 million.

X-Men launched into action with an uncanny $54.5 million weekend from 3,025 theaters, averaging a stunning $18,007. Though it's $3 million less than the studio estimate, it's still quite a marvel given the more down to earth box office track record of superheroes besides Batman and Superman.

It's the sixth biggest opening weekend of all time, right behind The Spy Who Shagged Me's $54.9 million from last summer. It's also the biggest July and non-sequel openings ever. What's more, it's second only to Mission: Impossible 2's $57.8 million opening for the year.

For a superhero comparison, the first Batman made $40.5 million from 2,194 theaters on its opening weekend. Adjusted for inflation, that equates to about $52 million today. Throw in the more front-loaded nature of today's pictures and the wider releases, it's opening would likely have been in the low $60 million range today, not much higher than X-Men.

X marks the third consecutive $40 million plus opening after The Perfect Storm and Scary Movie. The summer season seems to be turning around after a soft May and June. While August is still questionable, this July could end up being a record-breaker.

Scary Movie grossed $26.2 million, or about what most thought it would do in its opening weekend. Apparently, buzz from its scary opening convinced others to check it out, allowing a drop of 38%, solid for the kind of picture it is. It has already grossed-out an estimated $89.1 million worth of ticket-buyers.

The Perfect Storm held up perfectly well, down another 37% to $17.1 million, capturing $128.5 million to date. The Patriot fought its way to $10.6 million, losing 31% of its ground. So far, the Revolutionary War epic has liberated $82.8 million from Americans' wallets.

While not Big, The Kid eased by just 17% in its second outing, by far the strongest hold of the weekend. Bruce Willis and his trusty moppet mopped up $10.5 million, maturing to $30 million to date.

Chicken Run's legs were second best, down just 20% to $7.9 million. Though these chickens literally have feet of clay, they sure aren't being hampered by it at the box office with $77 million grossed to date. They are now certain to fly over the $100 million coop.

In general, X-Men seemed to have a halo effect on the rest of the marketplace, or rather people who couldn't get tickets to its sold-out shows spilled over into other pictures. Even Me, Myself & Irene leveled off with a modest 32% drop to an estimated $5.7 million, while older action pictures Mission: Impossible 2 and Gone in 60 Seconds were each down 30%. The latter of which, surprisingly, has a good shot at the century mark with $91 million in the till to date.

The top 12 pictures totaled $144.8 million, up six percent over last weekend and up a whopping 35% over the same frame last year when Eyes Wide Shut debuted at the top spot with $21.7 million en route to $55.7 million total.

Next weekend finds Warner Bros. trying to milk the Pokemon fad for all it's worth before its inevitable death by releasing a sequel just eight months after the first one. Harrison Ford hopes to spook some life into his sagging box office appeal with the Fatal Attraction-meets-The Sixth Sense thriller What Lies Beneath. While Loser and The In-Crowd compete for teens.

The legions of fanboys have been drooling in anticipation of the X-Men movie for quite some time. In the days before its release, they have reached a fever pitch, determined to love it no matter what as they did with The Phantom Menace last year. However, its commercial potential has always been an X. Early buzz was not good. The casting was questionable. The characters did not have the marquee value to launch a blockbuster. Worst of all, the first trailer was just run-of-the-mill MTV-style fare more reminiscent of Mystery Men than cool like Batman.

A funny thing happened on the way to its traditionally uneventful mid-July release date though. The marketing shifted gears, starting with an intriguing mock-political ad campaign for the Sen. Kelly character and his "Mutant Watch." Subsequent commercials made it into more of an event with better shots, more dialogue snippets and less techno music. What's more, the buzz shifted to very positive once people began to see the final product. It seems appeal has spread beyond the fanboys. Throw in their repeat business, and a blockbuster first frame seems secure.

Still, a few things may hold it back. Despite being the best selling comic and more than thirty years old, the X-Men just haven't seeped into the pop culture in the way that, say, Batman or Superman have. A gross like Blade's $70.1 million tends to be the exception rather than the rule among the less well known superheroes. Furthermore, despite the marked improvement in the ad campaign, there is still nary a "money shot," an indelible image, stunt or effect that is used to launch this kind of picture into the stratosphere.

The running time is a reported 100 minutes, cut down from an original two and quarter hours. Whether this makes the picture "tight" as the kids might say or just mercifully short remains to be seen. Either way, it's nice to see a picture come in at less than two hours for once. Most pictures these days are far longer than they need to be.

What could make the picture quite lucrative for 20th Century Fox is a low-by-tent-pole-standards budget of $75 million. This was reportedly achieved by not framing the picture around the special effects, but around the characters' development and interaction with the effects in support.

Should X-Men open to higher than $40 million after The Perfect Storm and Scary Movie did, it would be the first time in history that three pictures had consecutive opening weekends in this range. That appears unlikely, though a weekend in the mid-thirty million range from its 3,024 theater launch and commanding first place finish could be in store.

Scary Movie surprised everyone last weekend and blew away several records with its massive $42.3 million opening. With a production budget of just $19 million, it will likely be one of the few pictures to profit from its domestic theatrical run alone. Given the inherently front-loaded nature of the material and that teens are free to see it during the week, a sizable decline seems to be in store. Scream 2 and 3 fell 58% and 53% respectively. A drop of at least 45% would put Scary Movie in the low twenty million range and second place this weekend.

The Perfect Storm's waves were $27.1 million high last weekend, down a modest 34% and pushing it past the century mark. If it subsides by about 35% or more, it would come in at the mid-to-high teens and third place.

The Patriot retreated by 31% last weekend to $15.4 million, a decent hold after a disappointing opening. If it continues down this line, it could land in fourth place with $10-11 million this weekend.

The Kid opened to a respectable albeit unspectacular $12.7 million last weekend. Since the Bruce Willis-and-moppet comedy targets both families and adults who don't necessarily rush out on the first weekend and has positive word-of-mouth, it could hold up solidly, dropping around 30% to $9 million and fifth place.

Over the same frame last year, the long awaited Eyes Wide Shut opened to $21.7 million. Audiences expected an erotic thriller, but found it to be artsy-fartsy instead so it fumbled its way to $55.7 million total. American Pie's warm reception continued as it dropped just 28% in its second week to $13.6 million on its way to $102.1 million. Creature feature spoof Lake Placid opened in third with $11 million, en route to $31.8 million total. The Wood, as in Englewood not the other thing, opened to a potent $8.5 million from 1,191 venues and ended with $25.1 million total. Muppets From Space crash landed in tenth place with just $4.8 million, sputtering out at $16.6 million total.

Box office for Scary Movie was just plain scary. The gross-out comedy grossed $42.3 million, similar to Big Daddy's $41.5 million last summer. Spoofing such horror hits as Scream and The Sixth Sense and just about everything else, the $19 million picture played at 2,912 theaters averaging $14,542, unifying teenagers like no other picture has yet this season.

It's the best opening for an R-rated picture ever besting Air Force One's $37.1 million, though, adjusted for inflation, Interview with the Vampire is still tops with about $44 million. It also out-grossed the lofty $32.9 and $34.7 million openings of the last two Scream pictures. Kind of odd when the spoof is more popular than what it spoofs which was a spoof itself to begin with. Furthermore, the opening is the best in Miramax's history, the second best of the year behind Mission: Impossible 2's $57.8 million and the fifteenth best of all time.

Pretty good for the legion of Wayans Bros., who were practically has-beens after a number of canceled sitcoms, dwindling box office and collect call commercials.

The Sixth Sense connection wasn't as potent for Bruce Willis and moppet though. The $60 million Kid opened to a respectable $12.7 million from 2,167 theaters, less than half of Sense's $26.7 million from about the same number of theaters. Despite the high concept and prime summer slot, the sentimental comedy could not even beat the opening for Willis' last picture, The Whole Nine Yards with $13.7 million. Still, The Kid should stay in the picture long enough to be modestly successful.

The Perfect Storm abated by a modest 35% to $27.1 million, blowing past the century mark in just ten days. The $140 million disaster picture marks George Clooney's first blockbuster as headliner and has an outside shot at hitting $200 million.

The Patriot stood firm, down 31% from its disappointing opening to $15.4 million. With $65.5 million in the till so far, the $110-million Revolutionary War epic could at least match its budget.

In addition to Scary Movie, another surprisingly successful urban comedy reached a milestone this weekend. Martin Lawrence cross-dressed his way past the century mark for the first time in his career, as Big Momma's House consumed $4.1 million, reaching $103.6 million after six weeks.

Mission: Impossible 2 became the first picture of the year to cross the $200 million threshold. It fell out of the top ten for the first time with $3.3 million, bringing the total to $204 million after seven weeks.

The gravity-defying Gladiator enjoyed the strongest hold of the weekend, down just 18% to $2 million and $174.0 million after ten weeks. The Roman epic is on track to finish with about $185 million, and has already surpassed its domestic total overseas.

The top 12 pictures amassed $137 million, up nine percent over last weekend and up 27 percent over the same frame last year when another raunchy comedy, American Pie, topped the chart with $18.7 million en route to $102.1 million total.

Two solidly commercial and demographically compatible titles, Scary Movie and The Kid, enter the marketplace this weekend, riding the momentum that The Perfect Storm and The Patriot started after a relatively slow June.

Opening on the same frame that American Pie did last year, Scary Movie reportedly raises (or rather lowers) the bar for gross-out humor, though this isn't exactly indicated in the ad campaign. Originally called Scream If You Know What I Did Last Halloween, the picture's title is actually the original one for its main focus for spoof, Scream.

That influential-for-the-worse franchise is kind of an odd subject for spoof given that Scream was a belated spoof itself of '80s slasher flicks. Now, the glut of derivative horror pictures it spawned are certainly ripe for it, as they took themselves too seriously. Spoofs often hearken the end for a genre's cycle of popularity, ranging from a bang, Airplane! for the 70's strain of disaster picture, to a whimper, Fatal Instinct for the erotic thriller in the early 90's. Here's hoping that Scary Movie combined with the recent soft grosses of Scream 3 and its ilk mean the same for the slasher flick.

The ad campaign is chock full of the type of gags that leave the target audience rolling in the aisles. With no significant competition for teens and playing at 2,911 theaters, an opening in the mid-twenty million range and first place finish could be in store.

Since The Sixth Sense, Bruce Willis has had two bombs, The Story of Us and Breakfast of Champions, and one modest hit, The Whole Nine Yards. Now, hoping to repeat his greatest box office success, the busy star teams up with another kid in the unimaginatively titled The Kid, this time to conquer the sentimental comedy genre. This Big-in-reverse was rushed into production back in January, wrapping in April, to make a similar summer release to Sense. It seems to be coming out of nowhere like Sense did, including a subdued ad campaign. It's even opening at about the same number of theaters as Sense did, 2,167 vs. 2,161.

Willis-plus-kid pictures certainly haven't been foolproof. Prior to Sense was the bomb Mercury Rising, which sank to just $33 million. The Kid's ad campaign mostly features the same Steve Wonder music used for Wild Wild West playing over silent scenes and a cartoon-ish red biplane scuttling about. "I grow up to be a loser" being about the only punchline. However, the premise is certainly high concept enough and direct competition low enough to help propel The Kid to an opening in the low teens and fourth place finish.

Last weekend was the first time that two huge pictures of similar demographic appeal collided over Fourth of July frame. Instead of an evenly matched pattern, such as last November when The World is Not Enough and Sleepy Hollow each opened to over $30 million, one picture turned out to be the resounding favorite.

The Perfect Storm blew in with $41.3 million from 3,407 theaters, the third best opening the frame has seen behind Men in Black and Independence Day. The opening is comparable to such other disaster pictures as Twister and Deep Impact which each opened to about $41 million as well. However, adjusting for inflation gives those older disasters the edge, $47.2 million for Twister and $44.6 million for Deep Impact.

The tracking reports that the industry relies heavily on to help forecast box office proved unreliable yet again as they favored The Patriot with 26% while The Perfect Storm had 21%. It's about time to give these things up. After all, I don't use tracking or any other inside information to make my predictions, though I was still way off as well, swept up in a patriotic fervor I suppose. Strangely, my gut feeling actually told me $41 million for Storm but ultimately I over-rationalized The Patriot's potential and stuck to my early predictions.

Apparently, knowing the ending beforehand did not deter that many from The Perfect Storm. Those who didn't know it going in likely felt cheated and exhausted, so word-of-mouth could contribute to a sizable drop. Deep Impact had a downbeat ending and fell 43% in its second frame. A 40% decline would put Storm in the mid twenty million range this weekend, likely going neck-and-neck with Scary Movie for first place.

I don't know whether or not it's a good sign that The Perfect Storm drowned The Patriot, which opened to a disappointing $22.4 million from 3,061 theaters. On the one hand, it's nice to see a ponderous mediocrity and uber-hack director Roland Emmerich fail. On the other, it's sad that America has devolved to the point of indifference and often contempt towards its great birth, even on the Fourth of July, in favor of a bleak and random disaster. The curse of the Revolutionary War in film strikes again.

Now, Patriot could likely have long legs given audience response, and it could even cross the century mark. Still, with a $100 million production cost, Gibson's point participation, and questionable overseas potential, it could be a while before it breaks even, if it ever does. Perhaps the picture just looked too similar to Braveheart, reeking of a "been there, done that" vibe.

In The Hollywood Reporter, Patriot producer Dean Devlin (and longtime Emmerich co-conspirator in crap) thought two pictures having $20 million plus openings was "surprising and a great sign" because now the marketplace has shown that more than one big picture can open on the same weekend. Duh, Devlin. Such a precedent was set long ago and many times over. All of this was part of the spin, which included the obvious likening to Apollo 13, the R rating, the running time, blah blah blah.

Gibson opened the R-rated Payback to $21.2 million last year. His Lethal Weapon 4 and Ransom scored $34 million each, both R-rated as well. More comparable in length and subject, Saving Private Ryan opened to $30.6 million. Adjusted for inflation, Apollo 13 blasted off with about $29.5 million on this weekend in 1995, $45.5 over the long holiday, and ended up with about $201 million total. Anyway, a 35% drop would put The Patriot in the mid-teen range this weekend and third place.

Me, Myself & Irene tumbled 45% to $13.3 million. A hefty slide drawing parallels to The Cable Guy. Last year though, Big Daddy lost 52% in the same frame and then leveled off in its third weekend, despite the opening of American Pie. A 40% drop would put Irene in the $7 million range.

Chicken Run ruled the family roost with $13.2 million, pecking to death Rocky & Bullwinkle. That $76 million Robert DeNiro production opened to an uneventful $6.8 million, joining Battlefield Earth and Titan A.E. as one of the summer's biggest bombs. Meanwhile, the $42 million Run could see another modest decline in the 30% range this weekend and could likely fly over the $100 million fence by the end of its run.

Over the same frame last year, American Pie pie poked its way to an $18.7 million start en route to $102.1 million total. Wild Wild West tripped to second, adding $16.8 million to its coffers on the trail to a disappointing $113.8 million total. The only other opener was the thriller Arlington Road with a modest $7.5 million, ending up with $24.4 million total.

Last weekend, overall box office totaled $134.4 million, up 26% over the previous weekend and up 10% over the same frame last year when Wild Wild West topped the chart with $27.7 million.