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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (early Friday) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info like tracking reports. Only stats on this site that are readily available to all are used in his formulations.)
 

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

JULY-SEPTEMBER, 2006


9/29-10/1

1

Open Season
(3,833 theaters)

24.0
24.0 / 1

23.6
23.6 / 1

98.31%

2

The Guardian
(3,241 theaters)

18.2
18.2 / 1

18.0
18.0 / 1

98.89%

3

Jackass: Number Two

14.2
51.6 / 2

14.6
52.1 / 2

97.26%

4

School for Scoundrels
(3,004 theaters)

12.2
12.2 / 1

8.6
8.6 / 1

58.14%

5

Gridiron Gang

5.5
34.1 / 3

4.6
33.3 / 3

80.43%

6

Jet Li's Fearless

4.5
17.5 / 2

5.0
18.1 / 2

90.00%

7

Flyboys

3.3
10.9
/ 2

2.4
9.9 / 2

62.50%

8

Everyone's Hero

2.7
14.9 / 3

1.2
13.3 / 3

0.00%

9

The Illusionist

2.6
31.2 / 7

2.7
31.4 / 7

96.30%

10

The Black Dahlia

2.2
20.8 / 3

2.1
20.7 / 3

95.24%


9/22-24

1

Jackass: Number Two
(3,059 theaters)

19.1
19.1 / 1

29.0
29.0 / 1

65.86%

2

Jet Li's Fearless
(1,806 theaters)

9.0
9.0 / 1

10.6
10.6 / 1

84.91%

3

Gridiron Gang

7.8
25.3 / 2

9.5
27.0 / 2

82.11%

4

All the King's Men
(1,514 theaters)

6.6
6.6 / 1

3.7
3.7 / 1

21.62%

5

Flyboys
(2,033 theaters)

6.4
6.4 / 1

6.0
6.0 / 1

93.33%

6

The Black Dahlia

5.0
17.9 / 2

4.4
17.3 / 2

86.36%

7

Everyone's Hero

4.3
11.2 / 2

4.7
11.5 / 2

91.49%

8

The Last Kiss

2.9
8.9 / 2

2.5
8.4 / 2

84.00%

9

The Illusionist

2.9
27.3 / 6

3.3
27.6 / 6

87.88%

-

The Covenant

2.5
19.5 / 3

3.2
20.2 / 3

78.13%


9/15-17

1

The Black Dahlia
(2,228 theaters)

16.7
16.7 / 1

10.0
10.0 / 1

33.00%

2

Gridiron Gang
(3,504 theaters)

14.8
14.8 / 1

14.4
14.4 / 1

97.22%

3

Everyone's Hero
(2,896 theaters)

4.9
4.9 / 1

6.1
6.1 / 1

80.33%

4

The Covenant

4.2
15.2 / 2

4.8
15.8 / 2

87.50%

5

The Last Kiss
(1,357 theaters)

3.8
3.8 / 1

4.6
4.6 / 1

82.61%

6

Hollywoodland

3.6
11.4 / 2

2.7
10.5 / 2

66.67%

7

The Illusionist

3.6
23.1 / 5

3.6
23.1 / 5

100.00%

8

Little Miss Sunshine

3.3
46.3 / 8

3.3
46.4 / 8

100.00%

9

Invincible

3.3
50.3 / 4

4.1
51.1 / 4

80.49%

10

The Protector

2.4
8.9 / 2

2.5
9.1 / 2

96.00%


9/8-10

1

The Covenant
(2,681 theaters)

9.6
9.6 / 1

8.9
8.9 / 1

92.13%

2

Hollywoodland
(1,548 theaters)

8.2
8.2 / 1

5.9
5.9 / 1

61.02%

3

Invincible

7.2
47.1 / 3

5.6
45.5 / 3

71.43%

4

The Protector
(1,541 theaters)

6.3
6.3 / 1

5.0
5.0 / 1

74.00%

5

The Illusionist
(1,362 theaters)

5.5
19.1 / 4

4.5
18.0 / 4

77.78%

6

Crank

5.3
20.3 / 2

4.9
20.0 / 2

91.84%

7

Little Miss Sunshine

5.2
42.4 / 7

4.3
41.5 / 7

79.07%

8

Wicker Man

4.3
17.7 / 2

4.1
17.4 / 2

95.12%

9

Talladega Nights

3.4
142.6 / 6

3.0
142.2 / 6

86.67%

10

World Trade Center

2.7
67.1 / 5

2.6
67.2 / 5

96.15%


9/1-4
4-day Labor Day weekend

1

Invincible

13.9
36.5 / 2

15.4
38.1 / 2

90.26%

2

Crank
(2,515 theaters)

12.6
12.6 / 1

12.9
12.9 / 1

97.67%

3

Wicker Man
(2,784 theaters)

11.7
11.7 / 1

11.7
11.7 / 1

100.00%

4

Little Miss Sunshine
(1,602 theaters)

8.7
34.8 / 6

9.6
35.7 / 6

90.63%

5

Talladega Nights

7.8
138.5 / 5

7.6
138.3 / 5

97.37%

6

World Trade Center

6.8
64.7 / 3

5.9
63.8 / 3

84.75%

7

The Illusionist
(971 theaters)

6.1
10.2 / 3

8.1
12.2 / 3

75.31%

8

Crossover
(1,023 theaters)

5.8
5.8 / 1

4.4
4.4 / 1

68.18%

9

Accepted

5.8
29.3 / 3

5.6
29.1 / 3

96.43%

-

Beerfest

4.7
14.9 / 2

4.6
14.7 / 2

97.83%


8/25-27

1

Invincible
(2,917 theaters)

14.6
14.6 / 1

17.0
17.0 / 1

85.88%

2

Beerfest
(2,964 theaters)

8.5
8.5 / 1

7.0
7.0 / 1

78.57%

3

Talladega Nights

8.3
127.9 / 4

8.1
127.8 / 4

97.53%

4

Idlewild
(973 theaters)

7.6
7.6 / 1

5.7
5.7 / 1

66.67%

5

Little Miss Sunshine
(1,430 theaters)

7.5
23.0 / 5

7.4
22.9 / 5

98.65%

6

World Trade Center

7.2
56.3 / 2

6.5
55.6 / 2

89.23%

7

Snakes on a Plane

6.4
26.7 / 2

6.2
26.3 / 2

96.77%

8

Step Up

6.2
50.4 / 3

6.2
50.4 / 3

100.00%

9

Accepted

6.1
20.6 / 2

6.3
21.0 / 2

96.83%

-

How to Eat Fried Worms
(1,870 theaters)

3.2
3.2 / 1

4.0
4.0 / 1

80.00%


8/18-20

1

Snakes on a Plane
(3,555 theaters)

24.4
24.4 / 1

13.8
15.2 / 1

23.19%

2

Talladega Nights

11.3
111.9 / 3

13.8
114.3 / 3

81.88%

3

World Trade Center

10.7
44.9 / 2

10.9
45.1 / 2

98.17%

4

Accepted
(2,913 theaters)

10.0
10.0 / 1

10.0
10.0 / 1

100.00%

5

Step Up

9.6
39.2 / 2

10.2
39.7 / 2

94.12%

6

Little Miss Sunshine
(694 theaters)

6.6
13.7 / 4

5.6
12.7 / 4

82.14%

7

Barnyard

5.8
44.3 / 3

7.6
46.1 / 3

76.32%

8

Material Girls
(1,509 theaters)

5.2
5.2 / 1

4.6
4.6 / 1

86.96%

9

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

4.8
400.8 / 7

5.2
401.3 / 7

92.31%

10

Pulse

3.5
14.7 / 2

3.5
14.7 / 2

100.00%


8/11-13

1

Talladega Nights

22.0
90.0 / 2

22.1
90.3 / 2

99.55%

2

World Trade Center
(2,803 theaters)

21.0
29.1 / 1

18.7
26.5 / 1

87.70%

3

Step Up
(2,100 theaters)

10.5
10.5 / 1

20.7
20.7 / 1

50.72%

4

Barnyard

8.9
32.6 / 2

9.7
33.7 / 2

91.75%

5

Zoom
(2,501 theaters)

8.6
8.6 / 1

4.5
4.5 / 1

8.89%

6

Pulse
(2,326 theaters)

7.4
7.4 / 1

8.2
8.2 / 1

90.24%

7

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

6.9
392.1 / 6

7.2
392.4 / 6

95.83%

8

Miami Vice

5.5
56.1 / 3

4.7
55.3 / 3

82.98%

9

Monster House

3.8
64.2 / 3

3.3
63.7 / 3

84.85%

10

The Descent

3.6
16.4 / 2

4.6
17.5 / 2

78.26%


8/4-6

1

Talladega Nights
(3,803 theaters)

37.4
37.4 / 1

47.0
47.0 / 1

79.57%

2

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

13.8
382.5 / 5

11.0
379.6 / 5

74.55%

3

Miami Vice

11.6
47.7 / 2

10.2
46.3 / 2

86.27%

4

The Descent
(2,095 theaters)

10.2
10.2 / 1

8.9
8.9 / 1

85.39%

5

Monster House

7.6
58.6 / 3

6.1
57.0 / 3

75.41%

6

Barnyard
(3,311 theaters)

7.5
7.5 / 1

15.8
15.8 / 1

47.47%

7

John Tucker Must Die

6.7
29.3 / 2

6.2
28.7 / 2

91.94%

8

The Ant Bully

5.8
20.1 / 2

3.9
18.2 / 2

51.28%

9

You, Me and Dupree

3.8
67.0 / 4

3.6
66.8 / 4

94.44%

-

The Night Listener
(1,367 theaters)

2.6
2.6 / 1

3.6
3.6 / 1

72.22%


7/28-30

1

Miami Vice
(3,021 theaters)

26.4
26.4 / 1

25.7
25.7 / 1

97.28%

2

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

21.6
359.5 / 4

20.6
358.5 / 4

95.15%

3

The Ant Bully
(3,050 theaters)

13.3
13.3 / 1

8.4
8.4 / 1

41.67%

4

Monster House

12.4
44.8 / 2

11.7
44.0 / 2

94.02%

5

John Tucker Must Die
(2,560 theaters)

11.2
11.2 / 1

14.3
14.3 / 1

78.32%

6

You, Me and Dupree

7.9
59.9 / 3

7.1
59.1 / 3

88.73%

7

Lady in the Water

6.7
31.7 / 2

7.1
32.2 / 2

94.37%

8

Little Man

6.3
51.4 / 3

5.1
50.2 / 3

76.47%

-

Clerks II

4.1
18.6 / 2

4.0
18.5 / 2

97.50%

-

My Super Ex-Girlfriend

3.8
16.4 / 2

4.1
16.8 / 2

92.68%


7/21-23

1

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

31.1
317.2 / 3

35.2
321.9 / 3

88.35%

2

Lady in the Water
(3,235 theaters)

27.3
27.3 / 1

18.0
18.0 / 1

48.33%

3

Monster House
(3,553 theaters)

24.4
24.4 / 1

22.2
22.2 / 1

90.09%

4

My Super Ex-Girlfriend
(2,702 theaters)

13.5
13.5 / 1

8.6
8.6 / 1

43.02%

5

You, Me and Dupree

10.7
43.2 / 2

12.8
45.3 / 2

83.59%

6

Little Man

9.8
39.3 / 2

11.0
40.6 / 2

89.09%

7

Clerks II
(2,150 theaters)

9.7
9.7 / 1

10.1
10.1 / 1

96.04%

8

Superman Returns

6.9
177.7 / 4

7.4
178.3 / 4

93.24%

9

The Devil Wears Prada

6.5
96.6 / 3

7.4
97.5 / 3

87.84%

10

Cars

4.5
228.9 / 7

4.9
229.5 / 7

91.84%


7/14-16

1

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

63.5
260.0 / 2

62.3
258.4 / 2

98.07%

2

Little Man
(2,533 theaters)

21.4
21.4 / 1

21.6
21.6 / 1

99.07%

3

You, Me and Dupree
(3,132 theaters)

17.1
17.1 / 1

21.5
21.5 / 1

79.53%

4

Superman Returns

12.1
164.1 / 3

12.3
164.3 / 3

98.37%

5

The Devil Wears Prada

9.6
82.7 / 3

10.4
83.5 / 3

92.31%

6

Click

7.1
119.9 / 4

7.3
120.0 / 4

97.26%

7

Cars

6.9
219.1 / 6

7.8
220.0 / 6

88.46%

8

Nacho Libre

1.9
77.5 / 5

1.6
77.2 / 5

81.25%

9

The Lake House

1.7
49.0 / 5

1.7
49.0 / 5

100.00%

10

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

1.3
59.9 / 5

1.2
59.9 / 5

91.67%


7/7-9

1

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

116.9
116.9 / 1

135.6
135.6 / 1

86.21%

2

Superman Returns

24.8
144.6 / 2

21.8
141.6 / 2

86.24%

3

The Devil Wears Prada

14.3
62.4 / 2

15.0
63.1 / 2

95.33%

4

Click

11.7
105.6 / 3

11.9
105.8 / 3

98.32%

5

Cars

8.1
203.3 / 5

10.7
205.9 / 5

75.70%

6

Nacho Libre

3.6
74.1 / 4

3.3
73.8 / 4

90.91%

7

The Lake House

2.8
45.6 / 4

2.9
45.6 / 4

96.55%

8

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

2.3
57.2 / 4

2.5
57.4 / 4

92.00%

9

The Break-Up

1.6
114.3 / 6

1.6
114.3 / 6

100.00%

10

Waist Deep

1.4
18.7 / 3

1.9
19.2 / 3

73.68%


6/30-7/2

1

Superman Returns
(4,065 theaters)

55.9
89.4 / 1

52.5
84.6 / 1

93.52%

2

Click

19.3
77.1 / 2

19.9
78.4 / 2

96.98%

3

The Devil Wears Prada
(2,846 theaters)

17.8
17.8 / 1

27.5
27.5 / 1

64.73%

4

Cars

14.7
182.6 / 4

14.6
182.6 / 4

99.32%

5

Nacho Libre

6.0
64.9 / 3

6.6
65.4 / 3

90.91%

6

The Lake House

5.4
39.6 / 3

4.8
39.0 / 3

87.50%

7

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

4.5
51.8 / 3

4.5
51.7 / 3

100.00%

8

The Break-Up

4.0
111.4 / 5

3.0
110.2 / 5

66.67%

9

Waist Deep

3.7
15.5 / 2

3.4
15.3 / 2

91.18%

10

Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties

3.4
23.0 / 3

2.2
21.7 / 3

45.45%

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Forecast Archive

2006

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2005

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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