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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (early Friday) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info like tracking reports. Only stats on this site that are readily available to all are used in his formulations.)

Last update: 3/30/06
 

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

JANUARY-MARCH, 2006

3/31-4/2

1

Ice Age: The Meltdown
(3,963 theaters)

54.5
54.5 / 1

2

Inside Man

16.5
53.6 / 2

3

Slither
(1,943 theaters)

7.3
7.3 / 1

4

ATL
(1,602 theaters)

7.2
7.2 / 1

5

V for Vendetta

6.8
57.1 / 1

6

Failure to Launch

6.8
73.5 / 4

7

The Shaggy Dog

5.6
56.0 / 4

8

Basic Instinct 2
(1,453 theaters)

5.4
5.4 / 1

9

She's the Man

5.0
27.2 / 3

10

Stay Alive

4.7
17.5 / 2

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3/24-26

1

Inside Man
(2,817 theaters)

19.4
19.4 / 1

2

V for Vendetta

13.7
47.5 / 2

3

Failure to Launch

9.9
62.9 / 3

4

Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector
(1,710 theaters)

9.6
9.6 / 1

5

The Shaggy Dog

9.0
47.7 / 3

6

She's the Man

5.8
18.8 / 2

7

Stay Alive
(2,009 theaters)

5.7
5.7 / 1

8

The Hills Have Eyes

4.4
35.7 / 3

9

Eight Below

3.1
77.5 / 6

10

16 Blocks

3.0
34.8 / 4


3/17-19

1

V for Vendetta
(3,365 theaters)

29.4
29.4 / 1

2

Failure to Launch

14.6
47.4 / 2

3

She's the Man
(2,623 theaters)

11.5
11.5 / 1

4

The Shaggy Dog

11.0
33.3 / 2

5

The Hills Have Eyes

7.4
28.2 / 2

6

16 Blocks

4.9
30.4 / 3

7

Eight Below

4.2
73.3 / 5

8

Madea's Family Reunion

2.8
60.0 / 4

9

The Pink Panther

2.5
78.7 / 6

-

Find Me Guilty
(439 theaters)

1.2
1.2 / 1


3/10-12

1

The Shaggy Dog
(3,501 theaters)

23.0
23.0 / 1

2

The Hills Have Eyes
(2,620 theaters)

18.0
18.0 / 1

3

Failure to Launch
(3,057 theaters)

15.3
15.3 / 1

4

Eight Below

7.1
68.1 / 4

5

16 Blocks

6.4
21.7 / 2

6

Madea's Family Reunion

5.2
55.2 / 3

7

Aquamarine

4.6
6.7 / 2

8

The Pink Panther

4.2
75.2 / 5

9

Ultraviolet

3.5
14.7 / 2

10

The Libertine
(815 theaters)

3.0
3.1 / 2


3/3-5

1

16 Blocks
(2,706 theaters)

16.9
16.9 / 1

2

Dave Chappelle's Block Party
(1,200 theaters)

15.0
15.0 / 1

3

Madea's Family Reunion

13.3
48.5 / 2

4

Ultraviolet
(2,558 theaters)

12.0
12.0 / 1

5

Eight Below

11.3
59.8 / 3

6

The Pink Panther

7.2
69.9 / 4

7

Aquamarine
(2,511 theaters)

6.7
6.7 / 1

8

Curious George

4.9
49.7 / 4

9

Date Movie

4.8
40.4 / 3

10

Firewall

4.0
42.9 / 4


2/24-26

1

Madea's Family Reunion
(2,194 theaters)

24.7
24.7 / 1

2

Eight Below

14.7
44.1 / 2

3

The Pink Panther

11.2
61.0 / 3

4

Date Movie

8.8
33.5 / 2

5

Running Scared
(1,611 theaters)

8.1
8.1 / 1

6

Curious George

8.0
44.2 / 3

7

Doogal
(2,318 theaters)

7.2
7.2 / 1

8

Firewall

5.5
36.1 / 3

9

Final Destination 3

4.9
44.1 / 3

10

Freedomland

2.9
10.8 / 2


2/17-20
4-day President's Day Weekend

1

Eight Below
(3,066 theaters)

23.3
23.3 / 1

2

Date Movie
(2,896 theaters)

18.1
18.1 / 1

3

The Pink Panther

14.2
39.9 / 2

4

Curious George

11.9
30.1 / 2

5

Final Destination 3

10.9
36.6 / 2

6

Firewall

10.0
28.3 / 2

7

Freedomland
(2,361 theaters)

9.2
9.2 / 1

8

When a Stranger Calls

5.2
41.5 / 3

9

Big Momma's House 2

4.8
61.7 / 4

10

Nanny McPhee

3.9
38.0 / 3


2/10-12

1

The Pink Panther
(3,477 theaters)

22.3
22.3 / 1

20.2
20.2 / 1

89.60%

2

Final Destination 3
(2,880 theaters)

18.9
18.9 / 1

19.2
19.2 / 1

98.44%

3

Firewall
(2,840 theaters)

12.4
12.4 / 1

13.6
13.6 / 1

91.18%

4

When a Stranger Calls

10.1
34.9 / 2

9.1
34.0 / 2

89.01%

5

Big Momma's House 2

8.2
56.2 / 3

6.9
54.9 / 3

81.16%

6

Curious George
(2,565 theaters)

7.2
7.2 / 1

14.7
14.7 / 1

48.98%

7

Nanny McPhee

6.7
34.7 / 3

4.9
33.0 / 3

63.27%

8

Brokeback Mountain

5.0
67.4 / 10

4.0
66.5 / 10

75.00%

9

Hoodwinked

3.2
48.1 / 5

2.4
47.3 / 5

66.67%

10

Something New

3.0
9.0 / 2

2.3
8.2 / 2

69.57%


2/3-5

1

When a Stranger Calls
(2,999 theaters)

15.9
15.9 / 1

21.6
21.6 / 1

73.61%

2

Big Momma's House 2

15.4
47.4 / 2

13.6
45.7 / 2

86.76%

3

Nanny McPhee

9.5
26.3 / 2

9.8
26.5 / 2

96.94%

4

Something New
(1,266 theaters)

9.1
9.1 / 1

4.9
4.9 / 1

14.29%

5

Brokeback Mountain
(2,089 theaters)

8.0
62.1 / 9

6.0
60.1 / 9

66.67%

6

Underworld: Evolution

5.7
53.4 / 3

5.3
53.0 / 3

92.45%

7

Hoodwinked

4.6
43.4 / 4

5.3
44.1 / 4

86.79%

8

Annapolis

3.9
13.4 / 2

3.4
12.9 / 2

85.29%

-

The Chronicles of Narnia

2.9
281.8 / 9

3.1
281.9 / 9

93.55%

-

Glory Road

2.8
38.8 / 4

2.8
38.8 / 4

100.00%


1/27-29

1

Big Momma's House 2
(3,261 theaters)

19.4
19.4 / 1

27.7
27.7 / 1

70.04%

2

Underworld: Evolution

11.4
44.5 / 2

11.4
44.6 / 2

100.00%

3

Annapolis
(1,605 theaters)

9.5
9.5 / 1

7.7
7.7 / 1

76.62%

4

Nanny McPhee
(1,995 theaters)

8.1
8.1 / 1

14.5
14.5 / 1

55.86%

5

Brokeback Mountain
(1,652 theaters)

7.3
51.8 / 8

6.5
51.0 / 8

87.69%

6

Hoodwinked

7.2
37.5 / 3

7.5
37.8 / 3

96.00%

7

Last Holiday

5.5
33.3 / 3

4.8
32.6 / 3

85.42%

8

Glory Road

5.4
34.9 / 3

5.3
34.9 / 3

98.11%

9

The Chronicles of Narnia

4.0
277.4 / 8

4.5
277.9 / 8

88.89%

10

Fun with Dick and Jane

3.6
106.3 / 6

3.5
106.2 / 6

97.14%


1/20-22

1

Underworld: Evolution
(3,207 theaters)

26.1
26.1 / 1

26.9
26.9 / 1

97.03%

2

Brokeback Mountain
(1,194 theaters)

7.8
42.1 / 7

7.4
41.7 / 7

94.59%

3

Glory Road

7.8
26.8 / 2

8.8
27.7 / 2

88.64%

4

Hoodwinked

7.4
25.7 / 2

10.4
28.6 / 2

71.15%

5

Last Holiday

6.6
23.9 / 2

8.7
26.0 / 2

75.86%

6

The Chronicles of Narnia

6.1
271.8 / 7

6.2
271.9 / 7

98.39%

7

Fun with Dick and Jane

5.0
100.6 / 5

5.8
101.4 / 5

86.21%

8

Hostel

4.6
43.1 / 3

4.2
42.7 / 3

90.48%

9

King Kong

4.0
209.7 / 6

4.2
209.9 / 6

95.24%

10

The New World
(811 theaters)

3.8
4.0 / 1

4.0
4.2 / 1

95.00%


1/13-16
4-day MLK weekend

1

Glory Road
(2,222 theaters)

17.6
17.6 / 1

16.9
16.9 / 1

95.86%

2

Last Holiday
(2,524 theaters)

15.1
15.1 / 1

15.5
15.5 / 1

97.42%

3

The Chronicles of Narnia

12.7
263.9 / 6

12.8
264.0 / 6

99.22%

4

Hostel

11.1
36.3 / 2

11.4
36.6 / 2

97.37%

5

Hoodwinked
(2,391 theaters)

9.1
9.1 / 1

16.9
16.9 / 1

53.85%

6

Fun with Dick and Jane

9.0
92.9 / 4

10.3
94.2 / 4

87.38%

7

King Kong

9.0
204.5 / 5

9.1
204.5 / 5

98.90%

8

Brokeback Mountain
(683 theaters)

8.1
33.2 / 6

7.0
32.1 / 6

84.29%

-

Tristan and Isolde
(1,843 theaters)

6.8
6.8 / 1

7.6
7.6 / 1

89.47%

-

Munich

6.6
34.5 / 4

5.9
33.8 / 4

88.14%


1/6-8

1

The Chronicles of Narnia

16.1
248.2 / 5

15.6
247.8 / 5

96.79%

2

King Kong

14.7
194.8 / 4

12.6
192.7 / 4

83.33%

3

Hostel
(2,195 theaters)

11.7
11.7 / 1

19.6
19.6 / 1

59.69%

4

Fun with Dick and Jane

10.6
79.8 / 3

11.9
81.1 / 3

89.08%

5

Cheaper by the Dozen 2

10.0
68.1 / 3

8.4
66.6 / 3

80.95%

6

Munich
(1,485 theaters)

6.7
24.5 / 3

7.6
25.4 / 3

88.16%

7

Rumor Has It

6.4
35.9 / 3

5.7
35.2 / 3

87.72%

8

Grandma's Boy
(2,013 theaters)

5.6
5.6 / 1

3.0
3.0 / 1

13.33%

-

Casanova
(1,004 theaters)

3.0
4.2 / 3

3.8
5.0 / 3

78.95%

-

BloodRayne
(1,951 theaters)

1.4
1.4 / 1

1.5
1.5 / 1

90.32%

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Forecast Archive

2005

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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