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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray

The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (late Thursday/early Friday, 12 a.m. Pacific) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info, making the Forecast a pure test of predicting accuracy that uses only stats on this site readily available to all in its formulations.)

 

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

JULY-SEPTEMBER, 2005


9/30-10/1

1

Serenity
(2,188 theaters)

15.0
15.0 / 1

10.1
10.1 / 1

51.49%

2

Flightplan

13.5
44.5 / 2

14.8
45.9 / 2

91.22%

3

Into the Blue
(2,789 theaters)

11.3
11.3 / 1

7.1
7.1 / 1

40.85%

4

The Corpse Bride

10.0
33.1 / 3

10.0
33.2 / 3

100.00%

5

A History of Violence
(1,340 theaters)

6.9
7.6 / 2

8.1
8.9 / 2

85.19%

6

Just Like Heaven

5.4
37.6 / 2

6.1
38.4 / 2

88.52%

7

The Exorcism of Emily Rose

4.0
68.1 / 4

4.4
68.5 / 4

90.91%

8

Roll Bounce

3.6
12.3 / 1

4.0
12.7 / 1

90.00%

9

The Greatest Game Ever Played
(1,014 theaters)

3.2
3.2 / 1

3.7
3.7 / 1

86.49%

-

Oliver Twist
(779 theaters)

1.9
2.0 / 2

0.9
0.9 / 2

0.00%


9/23-25

1

Flightplan
(3,424 theaters)

21.4
21.4 / 1

24.6
24.6 / 1

86.99%

2

The Corpse Bride
(3,204 theaters)

20.0
20.5 / 2

19.1
19.7 / 2

95.29%

3

Just Like Heaven

9.4
29.6 / 2

9.6
29.8 / 2

97.92%

4

The Exorcism of Emily Rose

7.3
62.1 / 3

7.4
62.3 / 3

98.65%

5

Roll Bounce
(1,625 theaters)

6.1
6.1 / 1

7.6
7.6 / 1

80.26%

6

Lord of War

4.9
17.2 / 1

5.0
17.4 / 1

98.00%

7

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

4.0
96.6 / 6

4.3
96.9 / 6

93.02%

8

The Constant Gardener

2.2
27.5 / 4

2.3
27.7 / 4

95.65%

9

Transporter 2

2.0
39.7 / 4

2.2
39.9 / 4

90.91%

10

Cry_Wolf

1.8
7.1 / 1

2.2
7.5 / 1

81.82%


9/16-18

1

Just Like Heaven
(3,508 theaters)

20.8
20.8 / 1

16.4
16.4 / 1

73.17%

2

The Exorcism of Emily Rose

12.9
49.6 / 2

14.9
51.6 / 2

86.58%

3

Lord of War
(2,814 theaters)

11.4
11.4 / 1

9.4
9.4 / 1

78.72%

4

Cry_Wolf
(1,790 theaters)

6.1
6.1 / 1

4.4
4.4 / 1

61.36%

5

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

5.5
90.3 / 5

6.0
90.7 / 5

91.67%

6

Transporter 2

4.2
36.7 / 3

4.0
36.5 / 3

95.00%

7

The Man

2.1
7.2 / 2

2.0
7.1 / 2

95.00%

8

Red Eye

3.0
55.3 / 5

2.9
55.2 / 5

96.55%

9

The Constant Gardener

3.0
23.7 / 3

3.6
24.3 / 3

83.33%

10

An Unfinished Life
(753 theaters)

2.8
4.1 / 2

2.1
3.4 / 2

66.67%

-

Venom
(489 theaters)

1.1
1.1 / 1

0.5
0.5
/ 1

0.00%


9/9-11

1

The Exorcism of Emily Rose
(2,981 theaters)

19.1
19.1 / 1

30.1
30.1 / 1

63.46%

2

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

8.0
82.4 / 4

7.7
82.1 / 4

96.10%

3

Transporter 2

7.6
30.3 / 2

7.4
30.3 / 2

97.30%

4

The Man
(2,040 theaters)

5.7
5.7 / 1

4.1
4.1 / 1

60.98%

5

The Constant Gardener

4.9
19.1 / 2

4.7
19.0 / 2

95.74%

6

Red Eye

4.3
51.0 / 4

4.5
51.2 / 4

95.56%

7

The Brothers Grimm

3.1
33.0 / 3

3.3
33.3 / 3

93.94%

8

Wedding Crashers

3.0
199.7 / 9

3.3
200.0 / 9

90.91%

9

March of the Penguins

2.8
67.1 / 12

2.6
67.0 / 12

92.31%

10

Four Brothers

2.7
68.0 / 5

2.9
68.3 / 5

93.10%

-

An Unfinished Life
(139 theaters)

1.1
1.1 / 1

1.0
1.0 / 1

90.00%


9/2-5
4-day Labor Day Weekend

1

Transporter 2
(3,303 theaters)

17.8
17.8 / 1

20.1
20.1 / 1

88.56%

2

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

16.9
72.4 / 3

16.5
71.9 / 3

97.58%

3

Red Eye

10.1
46.2 / 3

9.4
45.5 / 3

92.55%

4

The Brothers Grimm

8.8
28.5 / 2

9.0
28.7 / 2

97.78%

5

The Constant Gardener
(1,346 theaters)

8.7
10.5 / 1

11.0
12.7 / 1

79.09%

6

Wedding Crashers

7.7
197.7 / 8

5.8
195.8 / 8

67.24%

7

Four Brothers

7.4
65.4 / 4

6.4
64.4 / 4

84.38%

8

March of the Penguins

6.2
64.3 / 11

5.6
63.6 / 11

89.29%

9

Underclassman
(1,132 theaters)

4.0
4.0 / 1

3.1
3.1 / 1

70.97%

-

A Sound of Thunder
(816 theaters)

1.4
1.4 / 1

1.2
1.2 / 1

83.33%


8/26-28

1

The Brothers Grimm
(3,087 theaters)

17.4
17.4 / 1

15.1
15.1 / 1

84.77%

2

The 40-Year-Old Virgin

13.9
46.3 / 2

16.3
48.6 / 2

85.28%

3

Red Eye

8.7
31.0 / 2

10.3
32.6 / 2

84.47%

4

Four Brothers

7.4
54.9 / 3

7.9
55.4 / 3

93.67%

5

Wedding Crashers

5.8
186.9 / 7

6.1
187.5 / 7

95.08%

6

The Cave
(2,195 theaters)

5.8
5.8 / 1

6.1
6.1 / 1

95.08%

7

March of the Penguins

5.5
56.7 / 10

4.7
55.9 / 10

82.98%

8

Skeleton Key

4.3
37.8 / 3

4.5
38.1 / 3

95.56%

9

Valiant

3.7
12.0 / 2

3.5
11.7 / 2

94.29%

-

Undiscovered
(1,304 theaters)

1.6
1.6 / 1

0.7
0.7 / 1

0.00%


8/19-21

1

Red Eye
(3,079 theaters)

19.2
19.2 / 1

16.2
16.2 / 1

81.48%

2

The 40-Year-Old Virgin
(2,845 theaters)

18.7
18.7 / 1

21.4
21.4 / 1

87.38%

3

Four Brothers

12.0
42.5 / 2

12.5
43.1 / 2

96.00%

4

Valiant
(2,014 theaters)

8.2
8.2 / 1

5.9
5.9 / 1

61.02%

5

Wedding Crashers

8.0
177.5 / 6

8.0
177.6 / 6

100.00%

6

Skeleton Key

7.6
30.3 / 2

7.7
30.4 / 2

98.70%

7

The Dukes of Hazzard

6.2
69.3 / 3

6.0
69.1 / 3

96.67%

8

March of the Penguins

5.9
47.8 / 9

6.5
48.4 / 9

90.77%

9

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

4.6
192.8 / 6

4.4
192.6 / 6

95.45%

10

Sky High

4.1
50.9 / 4

4.0
50.9 / 4

97.50%

11

Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo

3.9
17.4 / 2

3.9
17.4 / 2

97.37%

-

Supercross
(1,621 theaters)

1.8
2.5 / 1

1.8
2.5 / 1

61.54%


8/12-14

1

Four Brothers
(2,533 theaters)

17.4
17.4 / 1

21.2
21.2 / 1

82.08%

2

The Dukes of Hazzard

13.4
58.0 / 2

13.0
57.5 / 2

96.92%

3

Skeleton Key
(2,770 theaters)

12.5
12.5 / 1

16.1
16.1 / 1

77.64%

4

Wedding Crashers

12.0
164.3 / 5

11.8
163.9 / 5

98.31%

5

Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo
(3,127 theaters)

9.8
9.8 / 1

9.6
9.6 / 1

97.92%

6

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

7.4
184.0 / 5

7.4
183.9 / 5

100.00%

7

March of the Penguins

6.2
37.1 / 8

6.8
37.7 / 8

91.18%

8

Sky High

5.5
42.8 / 3

6.3
43.5 / 3

87.30%

9

Must Love Dogs

5.0
35.0 / 3

4.6
34.6 / 3

91.30%

-

The Great Raid
(819 theaters)

2.5
2.5 / 1

3.4
3.4 / 1

73.53%


8/5-7

1

The Dukes of Hazzard
(3,785 theaters)

30.2
30.2 / 1

30.7
30.7 / 1

98.37%

2

Wedding Crashers

15.1
142.6 / 4

16.0
143.6 / 4

94.38%

3

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

10.1
168.5 / 4

11.0
169.4 / 4

91.82%

4

Sky High

8.8
31.7 / 2

9.0
32.0 / 2

97.78%

5

Must Love Dogs

8.1
26.9 / 2

7.4
26.2 / 2

90.54%

6

Stealth

6.1
24.8 / 2

5.9
24.6 / 2

96.61%

7

March of the Penguins
(1,867 theaters)

6.1
25.3 / 7

7.1
26.4 / 7

85.92%

8

Fantastic Four

4.1
143.8 / 5

4.3
144.0 / 5

95.35%

9

War of the Worlds

3.4
224.4 / 6

3.5
224.6 / 6

97.14%

10

The Island

3.0
30.8 / 3

3.1
30.9 / 3

96.77%


7/29-31

1

Wedding Crashers

19.3
114.9 / 3

20.0
115.6 / 3

96.50%

2

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

17.1
149.2 / 3

16.4
148.1 / 3

95.73%

3

Stealth
(3,495 theaters)

15.3
15.3 / 1

13.3
13.3 / 1

84.96%

4

Must Love Dogs
(2,505 theaters)

14.9
14.9 / 1

12.9
12.9 / 1

84.50%

5

Sky High
(2,905 theaters)

12.7
12.7 / 1

14.6
14.6 / 1

86.99%

6

Fantastic Four

7.4
136.8 / 4

6.9
136.3 / 4

92.75%

7

Bad News Bears

6.2
23.3 / 2

5.6
22.7 / 2

89.29%

8

The Island

5.4
23.8 / 2

6.0
24.3 / 2

90.00%

9

War of the Worlds

5.4
218.3 / 5

5.5
218.4 / 5

98.18%

10

Hustle and Flow

4.4
14.9 / 2

4.0
14.6 / 2

90.00%

11

March of the Penguins

4.0
16.4 / 6

4.0
16.3 / 6

100.00%

-

The Devil's Rejects

2.3
12.2 / 2

2.8
12.5 / 2

82.14%


7/22-24

1

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

30.5
116.3 / 2

28.3
114.1 / 2

92.23%

2

The Island
(3,122 theaters)

23.4
23.4 / 1

12.4
12.4 / 1

11.29%

3

Wedding Crashers

20.8
75.2 / 2

25.7
80.4 / 2

80.93%

4

Bad News Bears
(3,183 theaters)

15.1
15.1 / 1

11.4
11.4 / 1

67.54%

5

Fantastic Four

11.2
121.4 / 3

12.6
122.9 / 3

88.89%

6

Hustle and Flow
(1,013 theaters)

8.7
8.7 / 1

8.0
8.0 / 1

91.25%

7

War of the Worlds

8.4
207.8 / 4

8.9
208.4 / 4

94.38%

8

The Devil's Rejects
(1,757 theaters)

5.5
5.5 / 1

7.1
7.1 / 1

77.46%

9

March of the Penguins
(695 theaters)

4.1
9.0 / 5

4.4
9.3 / 5

93.18%

10

Batman Begins

3.7
190.0 / 6

4.7
191.1 / 6

78.72%


7/15-17

1

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
(3,770 theaters)

57.7
57.7 / 1

56.2
56.2 / 1

97.33%

2

Wedding Crashers
(2,925 theaters)

28.3
28.3 / 1

33.9
33.9 / 1

83.48%

3

Fantastic Four

22.6
100.2 / 2

22.8
100.2 / 2

99.12%

4

War of the Worlds

15.9
193.1 / 3

15.2
192.4 / 3

95.39%

5

Batman Begins

6.4
183.5 / 5

6.0
183.1 / 5

93.33%

6

Mr. and Mrs. Smith

5.3
168.3 / 6

5.2
168.3 / 6

98.08%

7

Dark Water

4.5
18.8 / 2

4.6
18.9 / 2

97.83%

8

Herbie: Fully Loaded

3.7
56.1 / 5

3.6
56.0 / 5

97.22%

9

Bewitched

2.9
57.3 / 4

2.6
57.0 / 4

88.46%

10

Madagascar

2.5
184.3 / 8

2.3
184.1 / 8

91.30%


7/8-10

1

Fantastic Four
(3,602 theaters)

40.5
40.5 / 1

56.1
56.1 / 1

72.19%

2

War of the Worlds

31.6
166.3 / 2

30.5
165.0 / 2

96.39%

3

Dark Water
(2,657 theaters)

11.2
11.2 / 1

9.9
9.9 / 1

86.87%

4

Batman Begins

10.0
171.9 / 4

10.0
171.9 / 4

100.00%

5

Mr. and Mrs. Smith

6.8
157.6 / 5

7.9
158.7 / 5

86.08%

6

Herbie: Fully Loaded

6.0
48.3 / 4

6.1
48.3 / 4

98.36%

7

Bewitched

5.0
50.4 / 3

5.6
50.9 / 3

89.29%

8

Madagascar

3.9
179.3 / 7

4.0
179.3 / 7

97.50%

9

Rebound

3.0
11.6 / 2

3.0
11.5 / 2

100.00%

10

Revenge of the Sith

2.6
371.2 / 8

2.6
370.8 / 8

100.00%


7/1-3

1

War of the Worlds
(3,908 theaters)

65.9
111.5 / 1

64.9
100.6 / 1

98.46%

2

Batman Begins

15.5
151.9 / 3

15.6
151.1 / 3

99.36%

3

Mr. and Mrs. Smith

9.7
143.6 / 4

10.6
143.9 / 4

91.51%

4

Rebound
(2,464 theaters)

9.2
9.2 / 1

5.0
5.0 / 1

16.00%

5

Bewitched

8.9
38.7 / 2

9.2
38.7 / 2

96.74%

6

Herbie: Fully Loaded

7.5
33.2 / 2

8.8
35.1 / 2

85.23%

7

Madagascar

4.7
169.9 / 6

5.4
170.9 / 6

87.04%

8

Land of the Dead

4.2
18.2 / 2

2.7
16.2 / 2

44.44%

9

Revenge of the Sith

3.7
365.3 / 7

4.1
365.6 / 7

90.24%

10

The Longest Yard

3.1
148.0 / 6

3.3
148.0 / 6

93.94%

Forecast Archive

2005

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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Copyright © 1998-2005 by Brandon Gray. All Rights Reserved.