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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray

The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.

(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (late Thursday/early Friday, 12 a.m. Pacific) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info, making the Forecast a pure test of predicting accuracy that uses only stats on this site readily available to all in its formulations.)

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

APRIL-JUNE, 2005

Test Your Predicting Prowess in the 'Box Office Derby'
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6/24-26

1

Batman Begins

26.2
120.3 / 1

27.6
122.5 / 2

94.93%

2

Bewitched
(3,174 theaters)

21.8
21.8 / 1

20.1
20.1 / 1

91.54%

3

Herbie: Fully Loaded
(3,301 theaters)

16.5
22.6 / 1

12.7
17.7 / 1

70.08%

4

Mr. and Mrs. Smith

14.4
122.6 / 3

16.8
125.5 / 3

85.71%

5

Land of the Dead
(2,249 theaters)

7.4
7.4 / 1

10.2
10.2 / 1

72.55%

6

Madagascar

6.7
159.4 / 5

7.4
160.2 / 5

90.54%

7

Revenge of the Sith

5.6
357.9 / 6

6.1
358.5 / 6

91.80%

8

The Longest Yard

5.1
141.4 / 5

5.5
141.9 / 5

92.73%

9

Shark Boy and Lava Girl

3.6
30.9 / 3

3.5
30.5 / 3

97.14%

10

Cinderella Man

3.2
49.5 / 4

3.4
49.8 / 4

94.12%


6/17-19

1

Batman Begins
(3,858 theaters)

62.7
100.5 / 1

48.7
72.9 / 1

71.25%

2

Mr. and Mrs. Smith

23.3
95.0 / 2

26.0
96.7 / 2

89.62%

3

Madagascar

10.4
146.4 / 4

10.7
146.8 / 4

97.20%

4

Revenge of the Sith

8.7
347.0 / 5

10.0
348.1 / 5

87.00%

5

The Longest Yard

7.7
131.7 / 4

8.2
132.1 / 4

93.90%

6

The Perfect Man
(2,085 theaters)

7.2
7.2 / 1

5.3
5.3 / 1

64.15%

7

Cinderella Man

5.5
43.9 / 3

5.6
43.9 / 3

98.21%

8

Shark Boy and Lava Girl

5.5
22.7 / 2

6.7
24.0 / 2

82.09%

9

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants

3.4
30.5 / 2

3.1
30.2 / 2

90.32%

10

The Honeymooners

2.2
9.1 / 2

2.6
9.6 / 2

84.62%


6/10-12

1

Mr. and Mrs. Smith
(3,424 theaters)

33.2
33.2 / 1

50.3
50.3 / 1

66.00%

2

Madagascar

16.1
127.3 / 3

17.2
128.4 / 3

93.60%

3

Revenge of the Sith

14.6
331.9 / 4

14.9
332.1 / 4

97.99%

4

The Longest Yard

14.3
119.0 / 3

13.9
118.5 / 3

97.12%

5

Cinderella Man

12.4
37.4 / 2

9.7
34.6 / 2

72.16%

6

Shark Boy and Lava Girl
(2,655 theaters)

12.0
12.0 / 1

12.6
12.6 / 1

95.24%

7

The Honeymooners
(1,912 theaters)

6.0
6.0 / 1

5.5
5.5 / 1

90.91%

8

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants

5.3
23.3 / 1

5.7
23.7 / 1

92.98%

9

High Tension
(1,323 theaters)

4.1
4.1 / 1

1.9
1.9 / 1

0.00%

10

Monster-in-Law

3.6
77.3 / 5

2.6
76.5 / 5

61.54%

11

Lords of Dogtown

2.4
10.0 / 2

1.9
9.4 / 2

73.68%

12

Crash

2.1
40.5 / 6

1.9
44.3 / 6

89.47%


6/3-5

1

Cinderella Man
(2,812 theaters)

28.1
28.1 / 1

18.3
18.3 / 1

46.45%

2

Madagascar

24.7
96.9 / 2

28.1
100.4 / 2

87.90%

3

Revenge of the Sith

24.3
307.2 / 3

25.1
307.9 / 3

96.81%

4

The Longest Yard

20.9
90.6 / 2

26.1
95.8 / 2

80.08%

5

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants
(2,583 theaters)

12.0
16.0 / 1

9.8
13.6 / 1

77.55%

6

Lords of Dogtown
(1,865 theaters)

6.4
6.4 / 1

5.6
5.6 / 1

85.71%

7

Monster-in-Law

5.2
70.3 / 4

6.0
71.1 / 4

86.67%

8

Crash

2.9
40.5 / 5

3.3
40.9 / 5

87.88%

9

Kicking and Screaming

2.4
47.8 / 4

2.3
47.7 / 4

95.65%

10

The Interpreter

0.9
70.5 / 7

0.8
70.4 / 7

87.50%


5/27-30
4-day Memorial Weekend

1

Revenge of the Sith

79.1
279.0 / 2

70.0
270.5 / 2

87.00%

2

Madagascar
(4,131 theaters)

58.2
58.2 / 1

61.0
61.0 / 1

95.41%

3

The Longest Yard
(3,634 theaters)

45.4
45.4 / 1

58.6
58.6 / 1

77.47%

4

Monster-in-Law

11.1
60.6 / 3

12.8
62.4 / 3

86.72%

5

Kicking and Screaming

8.5
46.1 / 3

6.5
44.1 / 3

69.23%

6

Crash

5.0
35.1 / 4

6.1
36.2 / 4

81.97%

7

Unleashed

2.7
22.3 / 3

2.5
22.1 / 3

92.00%

8

Kingdom of Heaven

2.5
45.3 / 4

2.2
45.0 / 4

86.36%

9

The Interpreter

2.3
68.9 / 6

2.6
69.2 / 6

88.46%

10

House of Wax

2.2
30.5 / 4

1.6
29.9 / 4

62.50%


5/20-22
(Sith 4-day will be used to determine accuracy).

1

Revenge of the Sith
(3,661 theaters)

93.6
131.8 / 1

108.4
158.4 / 1

83.21%

2

Monster-in-Law

14.6
44.0 / 2

14.4
44.2 / 2

98.61%

3

Kicking and Screaming

11.7
35.3 / 2

10.7
34.2 / 2

90.65%

4

Kingdom of Heaven

5.4
43.3 / 3

3.5
41.2 / 3

45.71%

5

Unleashed

5.3
19.2 / 2

4.1
17.9 / 2

70.73%

6

Crash

4.9
27.0 / 3

5.5
27.6 / 3

89.09%

7

House of Wax

3.4
27.0 / 3

3.3
26.9 / 3

96.97%

8

The Interpreter

3.0
65.6 / 5

2.9
65.4 / 5

96.55%

9

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

2.6
47.5 / 4

2.1
46.9 / 4

76.19%

-

Mindhunters

0.9
3.5 / 2

1.0
3.6 / 2

90.00%


5/13-15

1

Monster-in-Law
(3,424 theaters)

25.1
25.1 / 1

23.1
23.1 / 1

91.34%

2

Kicking and Screaming
(3,457 theaters)

21.6
21.6 / 1

20.2
20.2 / 1

93.07%

3

Kingdom of Heaven

11.8
37.3 / 2

9.6
35.1 / 2

77.08%

4

Unleashed
(1,955 theaters)

8.8
8.8 / 1

10.9
10.9 / 1

80.73%

5

Crash

6.1
18.6 / 2

7.0
19.6 / 2

87.14%

6

House of Wax

6.0
21.4 / 2

6.6
21.9 / 2

90.91%

7

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

5.1
43.6 / 3

5.0
43.5 / 3

98.00%

8

The Interpreter

5.0
61.5 / 4

4.6
61.2 / 4

91.30%

9

Mindhunters
(1,040 theaters)

2.6
2.6 / 1

1.9
1.9 / 1

63.16%

10

XXX: State of the Union

2.6
24.8 / 3

2.1
24.3 / 3

76.19%


5/6-8

1

House of Wax
(3,111 theaters)

21.9
21.9 / 1

12.1
12.1 / 1

19.01%

2

Kingdom of Heaven
(3,216 theaters)

19.6
19.6 / 1

19.6
19.6 / 1

100.00%

3

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

8.9
34.9 / 2

9.8
35.8 / 2

90.82%

4

The Interpreter

8.1
54.8 / 3

7.8
54.4 / 3

96.15%

5

Crash
(1,864 theaters)

7.6
7.6 / 1

9.1
9.1 / 1

83.52%

6

XXX: State of the Union

5.7
21.1 / 2

5.5
20.9 / 2

96.36%

7

The Amityville Horror

4.3
61.3 / 4

3.3
60.3 / 4

69.70%

8

Sahara

3.4
61.7 / 5

3.4
61.7 / 5

100.00%

9

A Lot Like Love

2.8
18.6 / 3

3.2
18.9 / 3

87.50%

10

Fever Pitch

2.0
39.0 / 5

2.2
39.2 / 5

90.91%


4/29-5/1

1

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
(3,133 theaters)

24.0
24.0 / 1

21.1
21.1 / 1

86.26%

2

XXX: State of the Union
(3,480 theaters)

21.8
21.8 / 1

12.7
12.7 / 1

28.35%

3

The Interpreter

14.2
43.7 / 2

13.8
43.2 / 2

97.10%

4

The Amityville Horror

7.6
54.6 / 3

7.9
54.8 / 3

96.20%

5

Sahara

5.7
56.9 / 4

5.7
56.9 / 4

100.00%

6

A Lot Like Love

4.2
13.7 / 2

5.1
14.6 / 2

82.35%

7

Kung Fu Hustle

3.6
13.1 / 2

3.3
12.7 / 2

90.91%

8

Fever Pitch

3.2
36.0 / 4

3.5
36.3 / 4

91.43%

9

Robots

2.3
123.4 / 7

2.3
123.3 / 7

100.00%

10

Sin City

2.0
70.7 / 5

2.0
70.6 / 5

100.00%


4/22-24

1

The Interpreter
(2,758 theaters)

18.5
18.5 / 1

22.8
22.8 / 1

81.14%

2

The Amityville Horror

11.0
40.6 / 2

13.7
43.3 / 2

80.29%

3

Kung Fu Hustle
(2,500 theaters)

10.9
10.9 / 1

6.7
6.7 / 1

37.31%

4

A Lot Like Love
(2,502 theaters)

8.2
8.2 / 1

7.6
7.6 / 1

92.11%

5

Sahara

8.0
47.9 / 3

9.0
48.9 / 3

88.89%

6

Fever Pitch

5.0
30.9 / 3

5.5
31.5 / 3

90.91%

7

Sin City

3.4
67.0 / 4

3.7
67.3 / 4

91.89%

8

King's Ransom
(1,508 theaters)

3.3
3.3 / 1

2.1
2.1 / 1

42.86%

9

Guess Who

3.0
61.8 / 5

3.5
62.4 / 5

85.71%

10

Robots

2.4
119.2 / 7

3.4
120.3 / 7

70.59%


4/15-17

1

The Amityville Horror
(3,323 theaters)

28.0
28.0 / 1

23.5
23.5 / 1

80.85%

2

Sahara

10.8
34.1 / 2

13.1
36.4 / 2

82.44%

3

Sin City

8.0
63.2 / 3

6.7
61.3 / 3

80.60%

4

Fever Pitch

7.0
22.2 / 2

8.5
23.7 / 2

82.35%

5

Guess Who

4.3
57.0 / 4

4.9
57.5 / 4

87.76%

6

Beauty Shop

3.8
31.3 / 3

3.7
31.2 / 3

97.30%

7

Robots

3.0
115.1 / 6

3.6
115.8 / 6

83.33%

8

Miss Congeniality 2

2.5
41.2 / 4

3.0
41.7 / 4

83.33%

9

The Pacifier

1.9
103.2 / 7

2.4
103.7 / 7

79.17%

-

The Ring Two

1.2
74.2 / 5

1.4
74.4 / 5

85.71%


4/8-10

1

Sahara
(3,154 theaters)

16.8
16.8 / 1

18.1
18.1 / 1

92.82%

2

Fever Pitch
(3,267 theaters)

16.3
16.3 / 1

12.4
12.4 / 1

68.55%

3

Sin City

13.2
51.3 / 2

14.2
50.8 / 2

92.96%

4

Guess Who

7.7
51.7 / 3

7.0
51.0 / 3

90.00%

5

Beauty Shop

7.4
26.7 / 2

6.8
26.1 / 2

91.18%

6

Robots

6.5
112.8 / 5

4.7
111.0 / 5

61.70%

7

Miss Congeniality 2

5.1
38.4 / 3

4.2
37.5 / 3

78.57%

8

The Pacifier

3.9
101.3 / 6

3.1
100.6 / 6

74.19%

9

The Ring Two

2.9
72.3 / 4

2.9
72.3 / 4

100.00%

10

The Upside of Anger

2.9
12.7 / 5

2.5
12.3 / 5

84.00%


4/1-3

1

Sin City
(3,000+ theaters)

18.4
18.4 / 1

29.1
29.1 / 1

63.23%

2

Beauty Shop
(2,659 theaters)

15.8
19.2 / 1

12.8
16.6 / 1

76.56%

3

Guess Who

11.6
39.9 / 2

12.7
41.0 / 2

91.34%

4

Miss Congeniality 2

8.5
31.4 / 2

8.1
31.1 / 2

95.06%

5

Robots

8.4
103.0 / 4

9.8
104.4 / 4

85.71%

6

The Ring Two

6.5
69.5 / 3

5.7
68.0 / 3

85.96%

7

The Pacifier

5.4
95.7 / 5

5.8
96.1 / 5

93.10%

8

The Upside of Anger
(1,000+ theaters)

4.8
9.3 / 4

4.0
8.6 / 4

80.00%

9

Hitch

2.8
171.0 / 8

2.9
171.3 / 8

96.55%

-

Hostage

2.4
30.2 / 4

2.3
30.3 / 4

95.65%

Forecast Archive

2005

JANUARY-MARCH

2004

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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Copyright © 1998-2005 by Brandon Gray. All Rights Reserved.