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The Original
BOX OFFICE FORECAST
by Brandon Gray
The most accurate box office predictions since 1998.
(Predictions are usually posted after the Box Office Derby deadline (late Thursday/early Friday, 12 a.m. Pacific) so as not to influence that contest. These predictions are solely the opinion of Brandon Gray and do not incorporate any insider info, making the Forecast a pure test of predicting accuracy that uses only stats on this site readily available to all in its formulations.)

Blue = Predicted Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Red = Actual Weekend Gross
Total Gross / Week #

Purple = % Weekend Accuracy
(Predictions and actuals in $ millions)

JULY-SEPTEMBER, 2004

9/24-26

1

The Forgotten
(3,104 theaters)

17.5
17.5 / 1

21.0
21.0 / 1

83.33% 

2

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow

8.6
27.4 / 2

6.7
25.5 / 2

71.64% 

3

Mr. 3000

4.9
15.2 / 2

5.1
15.4 / 2

96.08% 

4

First Daughter
(2,259 theaters)

4.2
4.2 / 1

4.0
4.0 / 1

95.00% 

5

Resident Evil: Apocalypse

4.2
43.6 / 3

4.0
43.5 / 3

95.00% 

6

Cellular

4.1
25.5 / 3

3.7
25.1 / 3

89.19% 

7

Wimbledon

4.0
12.8 / 2

3.3
12.1 / 2

78.79% 

8

Shaun of the Dead
(607 theaters)

2.9
2.9 / 1

3.3
3.3 / 1

87.88% 

9

Without a Paddle

2.5
53.6
/ 6

2.4
53.5 / 6

95.83% 

10

Napoleon Dynamite

1.9
35.8 / 16

1.8
35.7 / 16

94.44% 


9/17-19

1

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow
(3,170 theaters)

17.8
17.8 / 1

15.6
15.6 / 1

 85.90%

2

Mr. 3000
(2,736 theaters)

11.1
11.1 / 1

8.7
8.7 / 1

 72.41%

3

Wimbledon
(2,033 theaters)

9.5
9.5 / 1

7.1
7.1 / 1

 66.20%

4

Resident Evil: Apocalypse

8.3
36.7 / 2

8.7
37.0 / 2

 95.40%

5

Cellular

5.9
18.8 / 2

6.8
19.7 / 2

 86.76%

6

Without a Paddle

3.1
49.8
/ 5

3.6
50.3 / 5

 86.11%

7

Hero

2.5
45.7 / 4

2.8
46.1 / 4

 89.29%

8

Napoleon Dynamite
(1,024 theaters)

2.2
33.2 / 15

2.3
33.3 / 15

 95.65%

9

The Princess Diaries 2

1.8
91.7 / 6

1.9
91.9 / 6

 94.74%

10

Collateral

1.8
95.5 / 7

2.3
96.0 / 7

 78.26%


9/10-12

1

Resident Evil: Apocalypse
(3,284 theaters)

24.6
24.6 / 1

23.0
23.0 / 1

 93.04%

2

Cellular
(2,749 theaters)

10.3
10.3 / 1

10.1
10.1 / 1

 98.02%

3

Hero

4.6
41.7 / 3

4.4
41.7 / 3

 95.45%

4

Without a Paddle

4.2
45.3
/ 4

4.5
45.5 / 4

 93.33%

5

Anacondas

3.2
28.0 / 3

2.8
27.6 / 3

 85.71%

6

The Princess Diaries 2

3.2
89.5 / 5

2.9
89.3 / 5

 89.66%

7

Collateral

3.0
93.0 / 6

2.7
92.7 / 6

 88.89%

8

Paparazzi

2.8
12.1 / 2

2.8
12.0 / 2

 100.00%

9

Vanity Fair

2.8
11.3 / 2

2.6
11.1 / 2

 92.31%

10

Wicker Park

2.5
10.4 / 2

2.5
10.4 / 2

 100.00%

11

The Bourne Supremacy

2.5
168.0 / 8

2.3
167.9 / 8

 91.30%

12

The Cookout

2.2
9.1 / 2

2.3
9.2 / 2

 95.65%

13

Garden State

2.0
18.6 / 7

2.0
18.5 / 7

 100.00%


9/3-6
4-day Labor Day weekend

1

Hero

11.8
35.4 / 2

11.5
35.2 / 2

 97.39%

2

The Princess Diaries 2

10.1
88.1 / 4

7.5
85.5 / 4

 65.33%

3

Wicker Park
(2,598 theaters)

8.9
8.9 / 1

6.8
6.8 / 1

 69.12%

4

The Cookout
(1,303 theaters)

8.1
8.1 / 1

6.2
6.2 / 1

 69.35%

5

Anacondas

7.8
23.6 / 2

8.0
23.9 / 2

 97.50%

6

Without a Paddle

7.7
38.5
/ 3

9.0
39.9 / 3

 85.56%

7

Vanity Fair
(1,051 theaters)

7.6
8.7 / 1

6.3
7.4 / 1

 79.37%

8

Collateral

7.4
89.8 / 5

6.5
88.9 / 5

 86.15%

9

Paparazzi
(2,115 theaters)

6.6
6.6 / 1

7.9
7.9 / 1

 83.54%

10

The Bourne Supremacy

5.8
165.3 / 7

5.3
164.8 / 7

 90.57%

11

Exorcist: The Beginning

5.3
38.8 / 3

4.5
38.0 / 3

 82.22%

-

Garden State

3.7
15.8 / 6

3.8
15.9 / 6

 97.37%

-

Alien vs. Predator

3.5
77.4 / 4

3.2
77.0 / 4

 90.63%


8/27-29

1

Anacondas
(2,905 theaters)

13.6
13.6 / 1

12.8
12.8 / 1

 93.75%

2

Hero
(2,031 theaters)

11.4
11.4 / 1

18.0
18.0 / 1

 63.33%

3

The Princess Diaries 2

8.5
75.5 / 3

8.1
75.1 / 3

 95.06%

4

Without a Paddle

7.0
26.2
/ 2

8.6
27.7 / 2

 81.40%

5

Collateral

6.8
80.5 / 4

6.5
80.2 / 4

 95.38%

6

Exorcist: The Beginning

6.3
30.4 / 2

7.1
31.2 / 2

 88.73%

7

Alien vs. Predator

5.6
72.9 / 3

4.9
72.2 / 3

 85.71%

8

Open Water

4.6
23.0 / 4

4.8
23.3 / 4

 95.83%

9

The Bourne Supremacy

4.4
157.5 / 6

4.6
157.7 / 6

 95.65%

10

Suspect Zero
(1,500 theaters)

3.5
3.5 / 1

3.4
3.4 / 1

 97.06%

11

Garden State

2.6
10.7 / 5

2.8
10.9 / 5

 92.86%

-

Superbabies: Baby Geniuses 2
(1,276 theaters)

1.8
1.8 / 1

3.3
3.3 / 1

 54.55%


8/20-22

1

Open Water
(2,709 theaters)

13.2
16.2 / 3

11.4
14.5 / 3

 84.21%

2

Alien vs. Predator

12.8
63.4 / 2

12.4
63.0 / 2

 96.77%

3

The Princess Diaries 2

12.6
60.6 / 2

13.1
61.2 / 2

 96.18%

4

Exorcist: The Beginning
(2,803 theaters)

11.4
11.4 / 1

18.1
18.1 / 1

 62.98%

5

Collateral

10.5
69.9 / 3

10.2
69.7 / 3

 97.06%

6

Without a Paddle
(2,730 theaters)

8.5
8.5
/ 1

13.5
13.5 / 1

 62.96%

7

The Bourne Supremacy

5.7
149.5 / 5

6.5
150.4 / 5

 87.69%

8

The Manchurian Candidate

3.7
54.2 / 4

4.0
54.5 / 4

 92.50%

9

The Village

3.4
106.7 / 4

3.7
107.0 / 4

 91.89%

10

Garden State
(652 theaters)

3.3
6.8 / 4

3.0
6.5 / 4

 90.00%

11

Yu-Gi-Oh! The Movie

2.7
14.9 / 2

3.2
15.5 / 2

 84.38%

-

Benji Off the Leash
(872 theaters)

1.6
1.6 / 1

1.5
1.5 / 1

 93.33%


8/13-15

1

Alien vs. Predator
(3,395 theaters)

29.7
29.7 / 1

38.3
38.3 / 1

 77.55%

2

The Princess Diaries 2
(2,926 theaters)

17.5
26.3 / 1

23.0
37.1 / 1

 76.09%

3

Collateral

14.0
50.3 / 2

16.2
52.6 / 2

 86.42%

4

The Bourne Supremacy

9.1
140.3 / 4

8.6
139.7 / 4

 94.19%

5

The Village

8.0
100.9 / 3

7.2
99.9 / 3

 88.89%

6

The Manchurian Candidate

6.3
48.3 / 3

6.0
48.0 / 3

 95.00%

7

Yu-Gi-Oh! The Movie
(2,411 theaters)

5.6
5.6 / 1

9.5
9.5 / 1

 58.95%

8

I, Robot

4.2
134.3 / 5

3.9
134.0 / 5

 92.31%

9

Little Black Book

3.9
14.8 / 2

3.8
14.6 / 2

 97.37%

10

Spider-Man 2

3.8
361.3 / 7

3.5
361.0 / 7

 91.43%


8/6-8

1

Collateral
(3,188 theaters)

28.6
28.6 / 1

24.7
24.7 / 1

 84.21%

2

The Village

18.6
87.7 / 2

16.5
85.6 / 2

 87.27%

3

The Bourne Supremacy

14.0
124.1 / 3

14.4
124.6 / 3

 97.22%

4

Little Black Book
(2,445 theaters)

13.7
13.7 / 1

7.1
7.1 / 1

 7.04%

5

The Manchurian Candidate

11.6
39.3 / 2

10.3
38.0 / 2

 87.38%

6

I, Robot

5.9
126.2 / 4

5.9
126.2 / 4

 90.77%

7

Spider-Man 2

5.4
354.4 / 6

5.4
354.4 / 6

100.00% 

8

Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle

3.0
12.1 / 2

3.0
12.1 / 2

93.75% 

9

A Cinderella Story

2.9
46.9 / 4

2.9
46.9 / 4

100.00% 

10

Catwoman

2.8
35.9 / 3

2.8
35.9 / 3

96.55% 


7/30-8/1

1

The Village
(3,730 theaters)

59.4
59.4 / 1

50.7
50.7 / 1

82.94%

2

The Bourne Supremacy

24.8
99.5 / 2

24.2
98.8 / 2

97.52%

3

The Manchurian Candidate
(2,867 theaters)

24.2
24.2 / 1

20.0
20.0 / 1

79.00%

4

Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle
(2,135 theaters)

13.3
13.3 / 1

5.5
5.5 / 1

0.00%

5

I, Robot

10.6
115.2 / 3

10.4
115.0 / 3

98.08%

6

Spider-Man 2

9.3
345.1 / 5

8.6
344.4 / 5

91.86%

7

Catwoman

6.3
29.7 / 2

6.4
29.8 / 2

98.44%

8

Thunderbirds
(2,057 theaters)

6.1
6.1 / 1

2.8
2.8 / 1

0.00%

9

A Cinderella Story

4.4
40.0 / 3

4.9
40.3 / 3

89.80%

10

Anchorman

4.0
79.0 / 4

3.1
78.2 / 4

70.97%

11

Fahrenheit 9/11

3.1
109.4 / 6

3.1
109.4 / 6

100.00%

12

The Notebook

3.0
68.6 / 6

2.7
68.3 / 6

88.89%


7/23-25

1

The Bourne Supremacy
(3,162 theaters)

43.5
43.5 / 1

52.5
52.5 / 1

82.86% 

2

I, Robot

23.6
97.0 / 2

21.7
95.1 / 2

91.24% 

3

Catwoman
(3,117 theaters)

17.5
17.5 / 1

16.7
16.7 / 1

95.21% 

4

Spider-Man 2

13.6
326.8 / 4

15.0
328.5 / 4

90.67% 

5

Anchorman

7.2
71.2 / 3

7.0
71.1 / 3

97.14% 

6

A Cinderella Story

5.8
27.4 / 2

7.8
29.6 / 2

74.36% 

7

Fahrenheit 9/11

4.7
102.8 / 5

4.8
103.1 / 5

97.92% 

8

The Notebook

4.1
62.1 / 5

4.3
62.3 / 5

95.35% 

9

King Arthur

3.6
45.7 / 3

3.0
45.2 / 3

80.00% 

10

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story

2.4
109.7 / 6

2.0
109.3 / 6

80.00% 


7/16-18

1

I, Robot
(3,420 theaters)

34.7
34.7 / 1

52.2
52.2 / 1

 66.48%

2

Spider-Man 2

23.6
300.9 / 3

24.8
302.3 / 3

 95.16%

3

Anchorman

14.5
57.8 / 2

13.8
57.0 / 2

 94.93%

4

A Cinderella Story
(2,625 theaters)

13.5
13.5 / 1

13.6
13.6 / 1

99.26% 

5

King Arthur

7.7
38.6 / 2

7.2
38.1 / 2

 93.06%

6

Fahrenheit 9/11

6.7
93.2 / 4

7.2
94.0 / 4

 93.06%

7

The Notebook

4.5
52.6 / 4

5.7
53.9 / 4

78.95% 

8

White Chicks

3.4
63.4 / 4

3.4
63.5 / 4

 100.00%

9

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story

3.3
104.7 / 5

3.8
105.2 / 5

 86.84%

10

Shrek 2

3.2
424.9 / 9

3.2
425.0 / 9

 100.00%


7/9-11

1

Spider-Man 2

46.2
257.8 / 2

45.2
256.4 / 2

 97.79%

2

Anchorman
(2,900 theaters)

42.2
42.2 / 1

28.4
28.4 / 1

51.41% 

3

King Arthur
(3,000 theaters)

18.8
28.6 / 1

15.2
23.6 / 1

76.32%

4

Fahrenheit 9/11

9.3
77.5 / 3

11.0
80.1 / 3

84.55% 

5

Sleepover
(2,000 theaters)

6.3
6.3 / 1

4.2
4.2 / 1

 50.00%

6

The Terminal

5.4
65.4 / 4

5.0
65.3 / 4

 92.00%

7

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story

5.3
97.1 / 4

5.7
97.9 / 4

 92.98%

8

The Notebook

5.1
40.9 / 3

6.5
43.1 / 3

78.46%

9

White Chicks

4.9
55.5 / 3

6.2
56.9 / 3

79.03%

10

Shrek 2

4.0
417.7 / 8

4.5
418.5 / 8

88.89%

11

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

3.9
232.5 / 6

4.1
232.8 / 6

 95.12%


7/2-4

1

Spider-Man 2
(4,152 theaters)

96.0
155.0 / 1

88.2
152.4 / 1

 91.16%

2

Fahrenheit 9/11
(1,710 theaters)

18.8
58.6 / 2

16.3
55.4 / 2

 84.66%

3

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story

9.6
85.8 / 3

8.1
84.4 / 3

 81.48%

4

White Chicks

9.3
44.0 / 2

8.7
43.8 / 2

 93.10%

5

The Terminal

8.0
54.4 / 3

7.9
54.3 / 3

 98.73%

6

The Notebook

7.5
28.6 / 2

7.4
28.8 / 2

 98.65%

7

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

6.8
223.9 / 5

5.9
223.1 / 5

 84.75%

8

Shrek 2

6.7
408.7 / 7

5.8
408.1 / 7

 84.48%

9

Garfield

4.1
64.1 / 4

3.0
63.0 / 4

 63.33%

10

Two Brothers

3.4
12.3 / 2

2.7
11.7 / 2

 74.07%

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Forecast Archive

2004

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2003

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2002

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2001
Average Accuracy: 86.47%

OCTOBER–DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

2000
Average Accuracy: 85.02%

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1999

OCTOBER-DECEMBER

JULY-SEPTEMBER

APRIL-JUNE

JANUARY-MARCH

1998

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