December 1999

For the first time in a while, box office was down from the comparative frame last year. Overall business waas $99.8 million, up 23% over last week but down 33% from last Christmas when Patch Adams topped the chart with $25.3 million. Christmas eve falling on a Friday contributed to this, but the lack of any breakout openers was the main reason.

Another odd occurrence was how the studios, for the most part, overestimated the grosses by wide margins. True, Christmas falling on a Saturday did warp the weekend and make it more difficult for them, but some estimates were ridiculous. For instance, Disney's $12.5 million estimate for Toy Story 2 was $2.1 million off from the $10.4 million actual. Warner Bros. with The Green Mile was the only one to underestimate (9 vs. 9.3 actual).

The money shot of Any Given Sunday's ad campaign? A slow-motion close-up of Al Pacino's crinkled face, yelling in his trademark fashion with heavy metal music playing over it. It apparently worked as the flashy football picture racked up $13.6 million from 2,505 over the weekend, finishing in first place. It was also the biggest opening of Oliver Stone's career, beating the $11.2 million of Natural Born Killers.

The Talented Mr. Ripley took advantage of the dearth of thrillers lately and grossed $12.7 million from 2,307 theaters over two days. Its $5,522 average was the highest of the top 20. This also marks Matt Damon's first strong opening since his Good Will Hunting success.

The biggest news of the week, though, was the failure of Man on the Moon. It opened to just $7.5 million ($12.3 million since Wednesday). Stunning considering that the lowest a Jim Carrey picture has opened to was the $12.1 million of his first starring role, Ace Ventura. Man marks his first bomb. Even The Cable Guy opened ($19.8 million) and made some decent money. This demonstrates that not even Carrey can overcome unappealing material. The ad campaign featured some Andy Kaufman humor, but was still rather unfunny and was mostly clips with R.E.M.'s song playing over it. This was also Carrey's first R-rated picture, which may have limited much of his young fan base.

Usually, the last family movie to enter the holiday fray doesn't gross terribly much, as families are busy seeing the holdovers. Last year, Mighty Joe Young bowed on this weekend to $10.6 million. What's more, sci-fi parodies have tended to not do well, such as last summer's Mystery Men ($29.8 million) and 1997's Mars Attacks! ($37.8 million). Galaxy Quest didn't break with history on both fronts, as it grossed a so-so $7 million from 2,412 theaters from two days.

The big news of the weekend was Stuart Little. The talking mouse was, surprisingly, the top choice of families over Toy Story 2 and Robin Williams. It grossed $15 million from 2,878 theaters, and business should be strong through the holidays. With a reported production budget of at least $103 million though, it might not ever get out of the red for Sony. Still, for it to make so much in a weekend that saw two high profile disasters is some kind of a victory.

Bicentennial Man also had a reported budget of around $100 million. But it opened to just $8.2 million from 2,518 theaters, suggesting that sentiment towards Williams' touchy-feely flicks was even lower than expected. For the most part, his biggest hits, like Mrs. Doubtfire and Patch Adams, have come during the holidays. The only time he had a picture open lower at this time of year was 1992's Toys ($4.8 million).

Anna and the King was a stunning failure, grossing just $5.2 million from 2,132 theaters. Since it cost a reported $75 million to produce, this puts it deep in the red. A sign of people's lack of interest was that every time Jodie Foster appeared on talk and entertainment shows to promote the movie, all the hosts seemed to care about was whether or not she was going to do The Silence of the Lambs sequel or not.

The Green Mile dropped just 29% to $12.7 million, totaling $36.7 million after two weeks. Toy Story 2 grossed $12.1 million, down 34%, the same as last weekend. The total stands at $156.4 million after just four weeks, and business will likely improve significantly over the holidays. Deuce Bigalow held up better than expected, dropping just 32% to $8.3 million.

Overall box office totaled $81.2 million, up 5% over last week and up 2% over the same weekend last year when You've Got Mail topped the chart with $18.4 million.

Though 1999 has been a year of new precedents, this weekend appears likely to fall in line with tradition, as none of the new openers look to have break-out openings. It's even quite possible that Toy Story 2 in its fourth weekend or The Green Mile could come out on top.

In Bicentennial Man, Robin Williams reteams with his Mrs. Doubtfire director Chris Columbus in hopes of having yet another holiday blockbuster. Last Christmas he opened Patch Adams to $25.3 million en route to $135 million. However, times have changed some since then. Though Patch was a big hit, it contributed to making many sick of his sensitive clown schtick that he's been doing in just about all of his pictures lately. For example, Jakob the Liar opened to just $2.1 million last September and grossed $5 million total. What's more, Bicentennial Man's ad campaign has been rather lackluster, not displaying nearly the amount of laughter that Doubtfire's did. Playing at 2,518 theaters, it could open modestly as Williams' Jumanji ($11.1 million) did on this same weekend in 1995.

Jodie Foster and Chow Yun-Fat star in Anna and the King, the third movie of the classic story, preceded by 1946's Anna and the King of Siam, starring Irene Dunne and Rex Harrison, and 1956's The King and I, starring Deborah Kerr* and Yul Brynner. There haven't been any romantic, epic period pieces lately, so Anna could benefit greatly from that. After all, Titanic opened on this same weekend in 1997. Of course, Anna doesn't have the same kind of inherent drama or fame as that blockbuster and it won't make nearly as much. Its ad campaign hasn't strongly promoted the romantic element either. What's more, its primary demographic are probably more preoccupied with Christmas preparations right now. The Green Mile and, to an extent, Bicentennial Man are it's closest competitors. Still, Foster, though she doesn't make movies often, has been known to open them pretty well. Look for Anna to open modestly well at its 2,134 theaters.

Sony gives Stuart Little the widest release of the week, with 2,878 theaters. This action just screams desperation. Sony has been having a year filled with flops, such as Random Hearts and The Messenger. The only hits they've had are Big Daddy and Blue Streak, and that's out of 23 releases. They reportedly spent $100 million to produce Little and it's the first effort from their in-house special effects unit. Unfortunately for them, only really appeals to little kids. Such pictures, aside from aberrant fads like Pokemon, have tended to not make much recently, especially on the opening weekend. The similarly appealing Mouse Hunt opened to $6.1 million on the same weekend in 1997 (though it had a leggy run to a $61.8 million total). Last holiday season Jack Frost and Babe: Pig in the City opened to $7.1 and $6.2 million respectively. Compounding the problem is the direct competition for the same audience from the still strong Toy Story 2 and family favorite Robin Williams. So Little should open decently for the type of picture it is, though poorly in relation to its cost.

* Tangent: Kerr seemed to have a habit of remaking Dunne's pictures. In addition to The King and I, she's best known for 1957's An Affair to Remember with Cary Grant. That was, of course, a remake of 1939's superior Love Affair starring Dunne and Charles Boyer. Leo McCarey actually directed both versions. What's kind of weird is that at the time of the original, Dunne and Grant co-starred in the classic screwball comedy, The Awful Truth, in 1937, which McCarey had also directed. 20 years later Grant starred in the Affair remake when he could have very likely been in the original. Perhaps McCarey always wanted to make it with him instead of Boyer (who was still good). By then, though, Dunne had retired from acting.

Toy Story 2 enjoyed its third weekend on top, after edging out The Green Mile in a photo finish. It grossed $18.2 million, down just 34% from last week. The total stands at $140.4 million. There was some controversy over the Sunday estimates. Disney had Story at $18.7 million, overly optimistic given its pattern last weekend.

It turns out Warner Bros., who was complaining about Disney, actually overestimated The Green Mile by a wider margin. They had it pegged at $18.6 million, when its final ended up being $18 million from 2,875 theaters. Though many were expecting a bigger opening, this was decent given the subject matter and the running time. It even has a shot at $100 million. About the same time last year, Tom Hanks opened You've Got Mail with $18.4 million en route to $115.7 million.

Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo scored a solid $12.2 million opening from 2,151 theaters. Not too shabby for Rob Schneider, who was on the brink of oblivion after such turkeys as Judge Dredd and Knock Off. Well-received cameos in The Waterboy and Big Daddy helped resuscitate him. What's more, the timing of Deuce was excellent as it was the first broad comedy to be released since October's Superstar, and it had no significant demographic crossover with The Green Mile.

The World is Not Enough fell 42% to $6.2 million. With a $99.4 million total, the chances of it surpassing Tomorrow Never Dies' $125.3 million have become slim. End of Days and Sleepy Hollow tumbled 51% and 46% respectively, each grossing $4.7 million. At this rate, Hollow won't make it to the $100 million mark. End might reach the mid-60's.

Overall box office was down 4% from last weekend, but up 4% over the same weekend last year when Star Trek: Insurrection topped the chart with $22.1 million.

Toy Story 2 grossed $27.8 million, a record for the frame and the fourth biggest weekend December has ever seen, behind Titanic's second weekend ($35.5 million), Scream 2's first ($32.9 million), and Titanic's first ($28.6 million). Its 52% drop was more than the original Toy Story's 31%, but was on par with A Bug's life's 48% and solid for being a sequel and for this frame. The total stands at an incredible $116.8 million after just 12 days of wide release, making it the 16th to cross the $100 million mark in this record-shattering year.

Meanwhile, The World is Not Enough fell 54% to $10.7 million, $90.4 million total. Though that's more than Goldeneye suffered in the same frame, World is still running 29% ahead of it. It's running slightly behind Tomorrow Never Dies, however that one was inflated by the Christmas holiday.

Meanwhile, End of Days tumbled 53% to $9.6 million for a disappointing $45.8 million total after 12 days. Sleepy Hollow fell 51% to $8.9 million for a bewitching $74.1 million total.

Dogma, after a precipitous 53% second week drop, has been holding up solidly. Over the holiday weekend, it was down 16%. This weekend, it grossed $2.1 million, down 38% when the norm is in the 50% range. The total stands at $24.4 million after 24 days.

On the other hand, Pokemon continued to have the most precipitous drop in the top ten, tumbling 67% to $2.3 million. Playing at 3,043 theaters, that amounts to an average of just $770.

Star Wars: The Phantom Menace made $1.3 million to start its one-week charity re-release. Playing at 832 theaters, it averaged $1,554, and its total rose to $429 million.

Some limited new releases racked up strong per theater averages as they started their bids for year-end awards. Neil Jordan's The End of the Affair scored $198,535 from 7 theaters for a $28,362 average. Woody Allen's Sweet and Lowdown debuted to $94,686 from 3 theaters averaging $31,562. Jane Campion's Holy Smoke grabbed $33,307 from two theaters. However, Anjelica Huston's Agnes Browne only managed $6,322 from two theaters.

Overall box office was down 50% from last weekend, but up 10% compared to the same period last year when A Bug's Life topped the chart with $17.2 million.

Not much to talk about as there aren't any new wide releases this weekend. Studios seemed to have learned their lesson about this traditionally slow frame, as they have been burned time and again by such stinkers as Psycho '98, Daylight and Trapped in Paradise. On second thought, it could just be that they didn't have anything to dump this time.

Aside from the amounts involved, Toy Story 2's box office pattern has been similar to last year's A Bug's Life, which dropped 48% to $17.2 million in its second week. Factor in a slightly bigger decline due to it being a sequel and the difficulty for a picture to maintain numbers at this level. Still, it will have a record gross for this frame.

The World is Not Enough has also shown a similar pattern to a predecessor, 1995's Goldeneye. That picture dropped 63% from its $26 million holiday weekend to around $9.6 million. World has been declining at a slightly faster rate, so it should also take a slightly sharper drop, adding another $11 million or so.

Smarting after a disappointing opening, End of Days looks to continue to disappoint. It's the kind of picture that everyone rushes to see the first weekend, so a drop of at least 50% is in store. Same goes for Sleepy Hollow, which took a sizable 39% hit last weekend.

Meanwhile, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace re-opens in 350 cities and on approximately 750 screens for a one-week charity engagement. Absent from theaters since November 4, demand has built up enough for it to have a decent showing. Due to a vague theater count I won't make a prediction for it though.