Box Office Column: April 1999

4/26 Actuals are in…

The Matrix was able to reclaim the top spot during this traditionally slow period at the box office. The total of the top ten was down 28% from last week, though about even with the same period last year.

The Matrix took its biggest hit yet, dropping nearly 30% to $12.6 million. Fortunately for it, Life performed like an Eddie Murphy picture usually does (aside from those 60's remakes), plunging 45% to $11.3 million.

Pushing Tin performed about as well as a picture whose studio has given up on it could be expected to, making only $3.6 million. It's odd that Fox did not give it a wider release and more aggressive marketing campaign, given the paucity of adult fare in the marketplace. Though it wouldn't have been a hit, it still could have performed modestly. By the way, Angelina Jolie is the latest "it girl" with nary a hit movie to her name.

Lost and Found made $3 million from 2,469 screens. That amounts to a truly pathetic $1,225 per screen average. With the hullabaloo over The Matrix and Analyze This, people seem to forget that Warner Bros. also has been putting out disasters like The King and I, True Crime, Goodbye Lover, and this one.

With $810,262 from 256 screens, David Cronenberg's eXistenZ performed a bit better than his last picture, Crash. But don't expect it to reach beyond his usual audience.

Election was able to stay in the race, raking in $119,080 from 6 screens. With it's healthy $19,847 per screen average, Paramount has decided to expand the critically acclaimed picture this weekend.

For all the numbers, check out Weekend Box Office.

4/23 Forecast: Matrix reclaims #1

Life has done its time at #1. Like so many niche pictures before it, a precipitous drop of around 40% or more is in store. Meanwhile, The Matrix has been dropping around 20% each weekend. There is no reason to believe its good fortune should change this weekend. With around $14 million, it should reside at the top spot once again.

Pushing Tin appears to be a modestly sized blip on the radar screen. The air traffic controller comedy has had a decent, if slightly low profile ad campaign. Fox is releasing it on only 1,283 screens, which could mean that they want to start small and then expand, but most likely means they're dumping it. Though, it should be noted that John Cusack's Grosse Pointe Blank got 1,227 screens back in April '97 yet still managed to open with $6.9 million.

If only Warner Bros. would dump Lost and Found! Instead they're releasing it on a whopping 2,469 screens. This is the picture that poses the question: Is there life after Chris Farley for David Spade? What's more, will anyone buy Spade as the lead in a romantic comedy? The answer to both will likely be a resounding "No." Warner Bros. has ensured fairly high audience awareness though, as this picture has perhaps the most ubiquitous trailer out there. So ubiquitous, in fact, that it's annoying as hell. Also, keep in mind that the WB is the same studio that gave Major League 3, Soldier, and The King and I similarly wide releases.

The delayed Election only opens on six screens this weekend. MTV and Paramount apparently still can't figure out what to do with it, so they're cautiously testing the waters.

For the specific predictions, check out the Forecast.

4/22 Star Power 101 Update

Keanu Reeves is the biggest mover this week, as The Matrix is now certain to make at least $150 million. Reeves' worth has more than doubled since the picture's release.

Meanwhile, Life has been good to Eddie Murphy and even better to Martin Lawrence. Murphy increased marginally because the picture's grosses are only slightly above average for him, whereas they are well above average for Lawrence.

The rest of the changes are largely due to just tallying in the final grosses of some older pictures. Most notably, the updating of the Stepmom gross allowed Julia Roberts to dethrown Jodie Foster as the top actress.

I also added a Top Ten Actresses list to the Breakdown.

4/19 Actuals are in…

With a surprising $20.4 million, Life edged out Lost in Space by about $150,000 to be the second largest April opening weekend ever (behind The Matrix of course). Timing turns out to have been perfect, as it was the first picture in a long time to appeal to the neglected urban demographic. It also was the only new wide release of the week. The star power of Murphy and Lawrence didn't hurt either. These factors ended up being more than enough to overcome an ad campaign that made it look like just another unfunny Murphy vehicle. I suspect that it is just that, and a precipitous drop is in store for next week.

The Matrix racked up another $17.9 million for a total of $98.9 million. It should reach $100 million by the end of today.

Goodbye Lover only managed a pathetic $1 million. To be fair though, Warner Bros. just dumped it onto 865 screens and with very little advertising.

Kate Winslet's return was met with little fanfare as Hideous Kinky earned $82,431 from 10 screens. The picture's $8,231 per screen average was modest and not very promising by limited release standards.

In general, the rest of the pictures enjoyed relatively small declines. Perhaps, with the lack of new releases, audiences took this opportunity to catch up on the ones they missed.

For more results, click on Weekend Box Office.

4/16 Life gets death sentence as the Matrix zeitgeist continues.

The Matrix continues to be the movie to see. At the rate it's going, it should hit $100 million by next Wednesday at the very latest.

Life is set to be yet another bomb for Universal Pictures and Eddie Murphy, who lately can't seem to have a hit outside of remakes of 60's movies. The ad campaign is laugh free. Murphy's last picture, Holy Man, had a laugh free campaign as well and it opened to a pathetic $5.1 million, his worst as star.

The delayed Goodbye Lover is being dumped by Warner Bros. onto only 865 screens, and should perform accordingly.

For the specific predictions, check out the Forecast.

4/12 Matrix Weekend Two

$22,563,331

With a mere 19% decline, The Matrix held up very well in its second week by any genre's standard, let alone the sci-fi and action ones. Look for this picture to continue to dominate for the next two weekends at least. There is no real competition until April 30, when Entrapment opens (which has a different demographic anyway).

Never Been Kissed grossed a decent $11.8 million. Though not as big as it could have been, this opening is still a testament to Drew Barrymore's rising star power. After all, her picture had to overcome very poor timing, coming out after a glut of teen pictures, and a mediocre advertising campaign. Plus, she carried the picture entirely on her own.

Moviegoers opted to pass on Go, as it scored a meager $4.7 million. Like the director's previous picture, Swingers, it will probably develop a sort of cult following, as it's one of those postmodern romps that appeal to certain segments. It will likely break even as well due to its low budget. But despite this, it's still kind of a failure given the buzz and the popular young stars it featured.

For the actuals, click on Weekend Box Office.

4/9 Matrix still top choice with moviegoers

The Matrix is poised to dominate the box office again. With positive word of mouth, high repeat business, and no real direct competition, it should have another blockbuster weekend of around $20 million, raising it's total to around $70 million in just 12 days.

Never Been Kissed had a bankable premise. 25 year old reporter goes undercover at high school for story (a la 21 Jump Street), and uses the opportunity as a chance to relive and set right her own painful high school experience. Throw in a hot star like Drew Barrymore, and you have a $14 million + opening from the teens and twenty-somethings, right? Well, not necessarily. Unfortunately for Kissed, it has been released right after a glut of teen pictures and at the same time as another one (Go). This lessens its event status as appetites for this kind of picture have long been satiated. In fact, box office for this type has decreased since the double whammy of Varsity Blues/She's All That. This picture should still make money, just not as much as it could have, had it been released at another time.

With strong buzz and popular stars like Katie Holmes, Go seems like it can somewhat overcome its similarities to Pulp Fiction and the bomb Very Bad Things to do decent business. Being edgier than most recent teen flicks helps. But the dominance of The Matrix, with its similar demographic, should keep it from breaking out.

For more specific predictions, see the Forecast.

4/2 Matrix to Have Record April Opening

Wednesday gross: $4,803,310

Thursday estimate: $4,775,000

Two day total: $9,578,001

The Matrix had an incredible opening day, harvesting $4.8 million from 2,704 screens. This blows away the spring Wednesday record previously held by Indecent Proposal, which opened to $2.9 million.

What's even more impressive is how it made almost the same amount on Thursday. This is uncharacteristic of the box office pattern of most sci-fi and action pictures, as a high percentage of their audience tends to see them opening night, causing an above average decline.

With strong word-of-mouth and repeat business, a weekend tally well north of $25 million now seems inevitable, easily surpassing the previous April record holder, last year's Lost in Space with $20.2 million. But can it beat the spring record set by Liar Liar's $31.4 million? We'll see.

Kudos to Warner Bros., who has had notoriously bad marketing as of late, for positioning this picture at just the right time to maximize its potential. The Matrix marks the end of a long action and sci-fi drought. It also beats Star Wars to the punch, which would have overshadowed it had it came out after May 19.

The trailer showcased the spectacular effects and stunts and capped it off with that cryptic and now oft repeated line, "Unfortunately, noone can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself." This, of course, is a variation on the same shroud-it-in-mystery formula that's worked so well for the likes of The Usual Suspects ("Who is Keyser Soze?") and, before that, the novel, Atlas Shrugged ("Who is John Galt?").

Home

© 1999 by Brandon Gray